A couple of bets for this evening.
7.20 Kempton Noverre To Go 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON
Not a bombproof type of each-way bet but with 12 runners and 1/4 odds on the place this staking ensures we get our money back if the selection runs in the first three. Noverre To Go represents Ron Harris, who is very much the sprint trainer of the year. His horses are generally very fast and very tough, but Noverre To Go has disappointed despite showing signs of form on a few of his runs this spring. He should be fit now and I find it interesting the headgear is taken off him tonight. He wandered all over the track at Salisbury last time and he doesn't seem to enjoy blinkers. He has some very good previous form on all weather surfaces and the hope is that the return to polytrack and lack of headgear will see him find his sparkle again tonight. If he does so, he is very well handicapped and could be a danger to all. James Doyle is a positive booking.
8.50 Kempton Russian Ice 2pts each-way @ 22/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, 20/1 generally guaranteed)
The favourite looks a fairly crazy price here and she is taken on with three time course winner Russian Ice. The jury is out as to whether she will stay a mile in this strong company, but there is no reason to assume her improvement over the last year has come to a halt and she was doing all her best work at the finish in a strongly run race here when beaten a nose here in a claimer last October. Her trainer Dean Ivory has a very good 12% strike rate from a large sample size of 4yo+ horses at Kempton, and after a quiet spell his string are returning to form. A strong pace should suit, the filly goes well fresh, and she came to hand this time last year. Too big at 20/1+.
_____________________________________________
One bet for this afternoon and a possible evening bet.
4.10 Yarmouth Comrade Bond 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 17/2 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed) - WON (Settled @ 15/2)
A course and distance winner last time out who likes Yarmouth having won twice here and will handle the soft ground well. Many of these horses look exposed although of a better class than what usually races at Yarmouth, but there are serious question marks about the likes of Born To Surprise, who is dropped alarmingly in class having contested the Craven Stakes, and has disappointed on his last two runs including on this type of ground. The Confessor and Loving Spirit have chances of sorts but aren't troubling the judge just lately and neither have ever run at this track. Comrade Bond and Rough Rock looked the pair to concentrate on, but Comrade Bond is open to more progression and his performance last time out is marked up because he raced on a part of the track where it looked disadvantageous to be. Soft ground poses no problems, he looked to revel on it when he won here last October. The booking of Ryan Moore, who won on him last time, would suggest that connections feel the horse is in good enough form to win here, and I've staked the bet in such a way that we should get almost the entire stake back should he run in the first three, given the fact that the profiles of some of the opposition are far from solid.
Profit & loss: day: +68.00 / month: +74.00 / year: -147.48
No comments:
Post a Comment