6.50 Kempton Galleon 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Boylesports, VC Bet, guaranteed, or take 11/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
Represents Sir Michael Stoute, and is apparently his second string on betting, but Pat Dobbs has ridden a few nice horses at this track for Stoute just lately and I expect Galleon to acquit himself really well. Looking at the betting, the top two look opposable. Muntasir has had a few chances now, and although he finished well last time out, that is no guarantee he will get 12 furlongs and with form figures of 44322 I feel there is a bit of a pattern forming and he may not be the most resolute. Presume looks the stable number one, but she got her own way in front on her debut and didn't show much in the way of a turn of foot at the business end. The form isn't working out on limited evidence and she is also too short. Regal Aura looks a better bet, but it worries me that she got her own way in front last time out and although the form looks strong at first glance, she was readily left behind once the better horses came at her. Galleon is very much bred to improve with a step up in trip and his debut run over a mile came in a very hot Sandown maiden which has worked out really well. He was putting in all his best work late on and given nothing like a hard time. He was sent off 13/2 for his second start but disappointed when this stable were out of form and on ground which may not have suited. He should have no problem on polytrack and he is very interesting at a fair each-way price. He is related to some very classy horses and seems to have been written off based on jockey bookings and form figures, the price looks very fair.
Profit & loss: day: +1.80 / month: -0.20 / year: -221.68
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