Saturday 25th August 2012

One small interest for this evening.

6.00 Redcar Navajo Nights 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Speculative at best but Navajo Nights represents a trainer whose juveniles have been coming on for their initial experience this season, sometimes markedly and including horses who have had a short break like this horse. Navajo Nights showed loads of speed on his debut but was very green, too free, and didn't know how to use his stride properly. He will have come on a bundle for the experience and given that he is very well bred to sprint, and represents a trainer with a good record at this track with juveniles in particular, he looks worth backing win and place.

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Two selections for today, and a possible evening bet released before 5.00pm.

3.05 York Ibicenco 5pts win @ 9/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 17/2 VC Bet, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed) 

Luca Cumani targets this meeting and his horses have been running well all week. The recent rain will help the chances of Ibicenco, a stoutly bred son of Shirocco who was last seen at Sandown running a very creditable race behind Opinion Poll in the Spring. Luca Cumani's quote is really positive:

"He wasn't really at his best in the spring but he ran an encouraging second in the Henry II and has had a summer break since. He is now working much better than I have seen him. I know it will be a hard task with Saddler's Rock in the race but he should go well." 

This horse probably has Group 1 potential in my view, particularly on rain softened ground on a galloping track like York. He was beaten only 3/4 of a length in a Group 3 at Longchamp last year on soft ground (15f) and followed that up with a 1 1/2 length second in a Group 1 behind Campanologist in Cologne, over an inadequate 12f. He is bred to get better with age and distance and Cumani's assertion that he is working better than ever is a real positive. This race represents an ideal test for him at this stage of his career and I would suggest that if Saddler's Rock does not handle the ground today, he is probably the likely winner. 8/1+ looks fair and we'll play win only.

3.55 Goodwood Jontleman 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd (15p rule 4)

Mick Channon has won this race twice in the last ten years, including with Youmzain, and his Jontleman looks to have excellent claims based on his first two runs in maidens earlier this year. His debut was promising, and he was backed in to 5/2 second favourite for his second race in a Salisbury maiden which looks one of the strongest contests of its type so far this year. The 1st, 2nd, 5th, 7th, 10th and 11th have all won since, and one or two of them have developed into very decent types who can make their mark in pattern company (Roz, who finished last, has already won a listed race). Jontleman travelled well behind the leaders in that contest but got caught behind a wall of horses and tapped for toe at a vital time when making his challenge. He wasn't given a hard time and it is interesting he steps up in trip by two furlongs for today's race. He is bred for middle distances on his dam's side and one mile looks as if it will be well within his compass. As a son of Whipper, he is likely to enjoy the cut in the ground caused by the recent rain, that sire's actual versus expected value in soft ground has been consistently strong and he looks physically as if cut in the ground will help him. The negative is a 74 day break, but the trainer's juveniles usually go ok after a similar break at at double figure odds, he is well worth backing each-way.

Profit & loss: day: -7.25 / month: +63.25 / year: -68.21

Friday 24th August 2012

Just one race of interest for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet released at 5.00pm.

3.40 York - The Nunthorpe Stakes

Monsieur Joe 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes, independents, guaranteed, 33/1 Totesport, Stan James, www.betpack.com)

Spirit Quartz 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, 20/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

A race that sometimes throws up a surprise winner and with the ground riding loose and dead, there is a fair chance some of the principals may get turned over - Ortensia and Bated Breath in particular want it fast. Pearl Secret has come in for support as he is proven on the ground but as a three year old who is inexperienced at this level he is taken on.

Monsieur Joe is ideally suited to this course and distance and is now with a trainer who is renowned for training top class sprinters. He won a listed race impressively last time out in what was probably a career best performance (although 1lb below best RPR), and horses who are on an upward curve tend to do better here than exposed older horses. It is interesting he was so much bigger this morning than Hamish McGonagall, whom he ran close over course and distance earlier this summer when the selection didn't seem to be at his best. At 33/1, he is far too big and he may also be drawn well in stall 17.

Drawn more towards the centre is his stablemate Spirit Quartz. He was second to Ortensia last time out and is another who looks to be on an upward curve. He should handle today's ground better than the Aussie mare and he is drawn around a lot of pace. He travels very well and it is encouraging that he found more at Goodwood than has sometimes been the case in the past - I think he will be much better suited by this flat track and he was also stranded on his own with no pace around him at Goodwood making his performance all the more meritorious. Frankie Dettori rides and 20/1+ is too big.

Profit & loss: day: +0.50 / month: +70.50 / year: -60.96

Thursday 23rd August 2012

Good profits yesterday and we're nicely up for the month once again.

Great racing today but no York bets for us, can't see much value. We'll have one at Bath and  a possible evening bet, released at 5.00pm.

2.20 Bath Perlachy 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Betfred, Ladbrokes, independents, guaranteed)

Game as a pebble eight year old representing Ron Harris. Likes this course and has won here, looks well drawn, and posted an RPR 7lb above his handicap mark on polytrack last time out. All surfaces seem to come alike to him, so his 2lb lower turf mark (raised 1lb on all weather) of OR66 looks potentially interesting here. He has the services of an excellent 5lb claimer who knows him well in Darren Egan, and a draw in stall nine looks good. Bath is said to be riding a bit soft, and his only turf win came last month on ground described as good to soft at this track. 20/1 is too big and he looks worth playing each-way.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +70.00 / year: -61.46

Wednesday 22nd August 2012

There is a small chance of an evening bet, details at 5.30pm.

2.00 York - Symphony Group Handicap

Kaldoun Kingdom 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Silvanus 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A really strong sprint handicap. The first thing that you notice on looking through this race is the amount of pace drawn middle to high. Captain Dunne is in stall 8, Burning Thread in 10 can go forward, as can Tax Free in 11, but Fratellino, Le Toreador, Fitz Flyer and Silvanus in 13,14,15,16 looks a real pace burn up area. Kaldoun Kingdom represents a stable banging in winners in sprint handicaps, he shaped well last time, and although the trip is a shade sharp for him the strong pace could bring him right into this and no better man to have on your side at York than Paul Hanagan.

It doesn't always follow that a hold up / mid division sort wins off a strong pace, and of those that lead Silvanus is the one I like, His trainer has a history of improving older sprint handicappers and form figures of 21211 on flat tracks before as disappointment at Goodwood last time tell their own story. If he turns up ready today, his odds look too big for a horse who has done more winning this year than most of these.

3.05 York - Great Voltigeur Stakes

Thought Worthy 4pts win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

A decent break before this race is a positive in my view, I don't like backing three year olds over middle and longer distances in top class races who have been battling it out on a regular basis. John Gosden seems to know that and his record in the St. Leger and indeed this contest speaks for itself. Thought Worthy has been off 61 days and should be ready to go today. He is the only pace in the race that I can see, and William Buick is developing into an awesome jockey. He should not be outsider of the field and I think he may be backed on course. 9/1 guaranteed is very fair.

Profit & loss: day: +30.00 / month: +75.00 / year: -56.46

Tuesday 21st August 2012

A small profit yesterday with Shooting Jacket finishing third. Poor stuff today but one interesting race.

2.35 Yarmouth

Scarabocio 3pts win @ 7/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

Theresnoneedforthat 3pts win @ 7/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

An interesting little maiden handicap and if one of the above can win it we'll get a payout at around 3/1. Scarabocio drifted badly on course last time out and it is likely he needed the race having been off since June. He looked a tad undercooked physically and ran like a horse who was not 100%, getting out paced mid race before rallying to make an effort, tiring close home. If he comes on for that run physically he should improve by around 5lbs at least in my view, and that might be enough to see him take a hand in the finish here.

Theresnoneedforthat represents a stable who had a winner at Lingfield the other day following a fallow period. The selection ran well over five furlongs here last time out in a race which looked as good as this, and from limited evidence that form is working out, This trip should be no problem, and it is interesting he is drawn in stall ten of ten. William Carson has made a habit in the past of tacking across to the rail for better ground at Yarmouth, and these shrewd connections might put that plan into play this afternoon. either way, he has a solid form chance and also looks overpriced.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +45.00 / year: -86.46

Monday 20th August 2012

One bet for Monday.

8.20 Kempton Shooting Jacket 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Betfred, www.betrogers.com, independents, guaranteed, 10/1 Totesport, Stan James, www.betpack.com) - E/W 3rd

A son of Hard Spun who showed nothing on soft ground last time but he is bred to relish artificial surfaces and would be unlikely to enjoy soft ground. His debut was fairly encouraging at a time when the stasble were out of sorts, but this is their time of year and all their horses in maidens deserve a second look. The trainer rarely has them wound up first time out so the favourite and Cap Orushes will need to be useful to win, but they'll certainly be looking to get a win into Shooting Jacket given his price tag. He is well drawn to go forward in stall 4 here and he is piloted by a jockey who gave the owner's apparent third string Altruism (14/1) a fine ride to win a Newmarket maiden on Friday evening. Experience should count for something here and none of the rest with experience have shown much. Interestingly, the stable second string (on betting) who finished well behind along with the selection on unsuitable soft ground last time out went on to win a maiden over this course and distance next time out (RPR80). If Shooting Jacket has that kind of ability he can win here with his jockey's 5lb claim perhaps making the difference.

Profit & loss: day: +1.00 / month: +51.00 / year: -80.46

Saturday 18th August 2012

It really hasn't been the best week's racing, today's action is a bit better but in truth the Ebor meeting is what we're looking forward to now.

Three interests for this afternoon.

2.05 Doncaster Ghanaian 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Represents the Al Zarooni stable who are really hitting form at the moment. This well bred daughter of Shamardal looked green on debut at Goodwood but really got the message late on and started to stride out in a most eye catching fashion towards the finish. This doesn't look a strong fillies maiden and if Ghanaian is as good as she is bred to be, she can win this on the way to better things. Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride and the step up to a mile will suit.

2.20 Ripon El Viento 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (VC Bet, Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - WON @ 12/1

Has been well punted into second favourite and looks worth each-way support at double figure odds. The selection has been running well in big field handicaps and he looks ready to strike at this stage. He is a course and distance winner and looks well handicapped on his best form. I think he is still unexposed and I expect him to improve and take a hand in some of the late season sprint handicaps. I want something drawn on either side at Ripon as opposed to the middle and El Viento gets stall 4.

3.30 Ripon Seal Rock 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 28/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

No explanation has been offered for his poor showing at Goodwood but Seal Rock is so well handicapped that he must be given a second chance at big odds even though his current well being can be called into question. He has a potentially decent draw in stall 15 and represents an in form stable. There is no standout candidate here and with stronger handling likely today with Mulrennan replacing Amy Scott, the selection is worth backing at the prices.

Profit & loss: day: +34.00 / month: +50.00 / year: -81.46

Friday 17th August 2012

One for this afternoon and a possible evening bet.

2.30 Newcastle Night Flash 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

We waited as long as possible to send this and I'm happy that the softening of the ground will suit this son of Oratorio, whose progeny enjoy a bit of cut. The selection represents James Given, whose stable were woefully out of form earlier in the season, but they've had four winners from their last eleven runners at all sorts of prices and with different profiles. Clearly the yard are in form again and I think Given has a batch of unexposed horses now. The selection has not shown much on turf but he hasn't had many chances and today's trip and ground will suit perfectly looking at his breeding and race record. He has dropped to a mark of OR65 which looks very fair, and with Graham Lee booked, he is fancied to outrun his odds in a fairly average looking event.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +16.00 / year: -115.46

Wednesday 15th August 2012

5.45 Southwell Bapak Bangsawan 3pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 15/2 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, 7/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Represents a trainer with a good record at this track, and a sire who does quite well here too. The selection showed glimmers of ability on all three starts, but the manner in which he went clear of the field early on last time out at Newcastle before fading late on suggested he would be well suited by a straight five furlongs at this stage in his career. His action looked like that of a horse who would go well on this surface and the late afternoon money is interesting, because it is consistent with money for other unexposed horses from this stable who generally acquit themselves well here when fancied to do so. This looks a winnable maiden and there are reasons to oppose some of the others near the head of the market. I actually think this is a really decent bet and he is overpriced at the odds. We'll have a decent each-way punt.

Profit & loss: day: -0.50 / month: +20.00 / year: -111.46

Tuesday 14th August 2012

Just one bet for today on a day with more quantity than quality.

3.20 Ayr Dhaular Dhar 2pts each-way @ 33/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, Bodog, or take 28/1 guaranteed with Bet 365 and many independents)

I remember tipping this fella on numerous occasions in summer 2006 and if you'd told me I'd be tipping him in early Autumn 2012 I'd have laughed at you. For Life showed us on Friday that there is no harm backing older horses in the right conditions, and the selection looks a fair bit overpriced today under conditions which look ideal for him. You could call him difficult to predict, in that he has a happy knack these days of popping up at a big price - his last three wins have seen him returned at SP's of 16/1, 14/1 and 28/1, he also collected place money at 18/1 last year. He represents Jim Goldie, whose stable had been in terrible form earlier this year, but they are now running much better in general and the Stewards' Cup success of Hawkeyethenoo has been followed up by victories for some fairly moderate types. Dhaular Dhar ran better then his finishing position suggests last time out. He was held up in an unusual race which was totally defined by pace, where it paid to sit just off the front runner Suits Me, who got an easy lead. Everything else in the race was pretty much a hold up horse and the winner sat near the front of the chasing pack. The rest finished in a heap. Dhaular Dhar was unsuited by the way the race panned out, he tanked along early on at the back of the bunch who ignored the pace setter, and he had shot his bolt by the business end. He steps back two furlongs today in a race that looks set to be strongly run, and I find it interesting he has dropped another 3lb to a mark of OR75 which he has already ran above this season. He also has the services of a good 5lb claimer, his last win came under 3lb claimer Gary Bartley and the previous two wins were under 7lb claimer Paul Norton and 7lb claimer Dean Heslop. He clearly responds to amateur handling and from stall six, he is ideally drawn to get a midfield sit which should be ideal. He is very much overpriced, I would make him a 16/1 shot here and 28/1 or better looks very good value.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +20.50 / year: -110.96

Monday 13th August 2012

Three selections for today and a multiple bet.

3 x 0.5pts win doubles and 1 x 0.5pts each-way treble on todays selections - Use guaranteed prices, VC currently best of the guaranteed odds bookmakers 9/2, 9/1, 16/1 - total 2.5pts for multiple bet)

3.10 Lingfield Grey Blue 4pts win @ 5/1 (Boylesports, Betfred, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed)

Represents Mark Johnston who is in flying form. Grey Blue made his debut at Epsom and showed up really well for a long way, but he has a pronounced action and I don't think the downhill run suited him. On breeding he ought to act well on polytrack and this weak maiden looks a good piece of placement by his trainer. Was well supported this morning but still appeals as value against a badly priced favourite.

3.30 Kempton Walter White 3pts win @ 10/1 (Boylesports, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

By Dark Angel whose progeny excel on this surface, and the turf to polytrack angle is one which could see this horse improve. His trainer does well here and his horses have run well here since the new surface was laid, which bodes well. Stamina has to be taken on trust but this looks a weak race and any improvement should see him thereabouts.

7.10 Wolverhampton Red Eclipse 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (VC Bet, William Hill, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

The layers make this a two horse race but Alan Bailey is a trainer I admire and he has a good record with two year olds here. He won this contest last year with a filly who was sent off 100/1, and he has Red Eclipse entered this evening. She will also avail of a 5lb fillies allowance. I find it interesting she retains a Group 2 entry in the Lowther stakes and that would suggest to me she has been showing up well at home. She made her debut in a top class Newmarket maiden which has worked out very well, and she wasn't disgraced having travelled keenly in rear and making late headway on ground she probably didn't enjoy. She is well drawn tonight and has the excellent Franny Norton on board. I think this is a misprice, I made her around 8/1 in my book and although the Meehan horse looked good on debut, he has only eleven days to come on for that and I'm not a fan of his sire. Red Eclipse is related to some speedy juveniles and six furlongs on polytrack is ideal for her at this stage in her career.

Profit & loss: day: -15.50 / month: +24.50 / year: -106.96

Saturday 11th August 2012

Nice profits yesterday with For Life winning handy and it has been a profitable week.

Three bets today at our beloved Ascot, one on a horse and two on the specials markets.

Shergar Cup - Ladies Team to win 5pts @ 7/2 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, 3/1 with Corals, Independents)

Shergar Cup leading jockey - Hayley Turner 2pts @ 8/1 (Generally)

Our bets today are all related so I've had to be careful with staking. Having scanned the cards, I feel that the girls have by far the best book of rides in the Shergar Cup and the price of 7/2 is miles too big in my view - 9/4 is my idea of the correct price so we really must have a decent punt on that basis. If you shop around you should get 3/1 at least, ask your local independent bookmaker to give you 3/1 or 7/2 and they will probably accommodate you. 11/4 is still too big but 7/2 is ridiculous - fair play to Stan James and the others for taking a view but they may not have the last laugh. You can bet your bottom dollar none of the girls will be dropping their hands close home when riding for a place, places can decide the eventual winner and I can see their team being extremely competitive.

Hayley Turner has the most Ascot experience of the girls and I particularly like the look of her book of rides. 8/1 on her winning top jockey is too big and we'll have two points extra on Hayley.

2.05 Ascot Steps 5pts win @ 13/2 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)

Produced a stunning turn of foot on his last run to finally justify the faith the Varian team have had in him, and a first time hood appeared to make all the difference. I think he is the best handicapped horse in this race by far and the presence of Stone Of Folca, Zero Money and Judge 'N' Jury should ensure the strong pace he requires. Hayley Turner takes the ride and provided he handles the ground, I think he will win. Taajub is not easily passed over, but this isn't an emotional game and Steps looks really well handicapped. A rail draw will help him (made his challenge on the rail last time and it seemed to help him focus).

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: +40.00 / year: -91.46

Friday 10th August 2012

Just the one bet for today. It has been a most uninspiring week racing wise, we've had to pick and choose our bets and from the three we've had, all three have placed and given a return. Not all weeks can be exciting, and it doesn't look like this week will be. Saying that, we've turned a small profit and one or two winners would make it all the more satisfying.

3.20 Lingfield For Life 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Represents a small stable who do well here, and although For Life is now a ten year old, there is little to suggest his powers are on the wane. Two of his last three runs have been decent, seeing him run above today's mark, and I did note that he didn't have ideal conditions with regard to the draw and other factors on a few recent occasions. He should get the lead from stall two today, he goes particularly well after this sort of break, and having Natalia Gemelova claim 3lb is a bonus. She knows the horse well and will keep the tactics simple. The opposition today are largely our of sorts and limited, only Mary's Pet might challenge for the lead but from stall six I think he has his work cut out to get it. The step back in trip from the selection's usual seven furlongs looks a step in the right direction and from this low mark he has an ideal chance to post a fourth course win.

Profit & loss: day: +34.00 / month: +52.00 / year: -79.46

Thursday 9th August 2012

One bet for this afternoon, a possible bet for Southwell will be released at 4.00pm.

3.00 Yarmouth Scarabocio 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, Stan James, www.betpack.com, Sporting Bet, independents) - E/W 3rd

Peter Chapple Hyam had a winner go in at a price here last night in a first time hood, and his Scarabocio is given a final chance to deliver on his handicap debut in a returning hood this afternoon. The selection was noted last backend in a maiden showing plenty of promise, but disappointed on seasonal return when we backed him, looking anything but ready. A non event of a third run quickly followed and it seems the plan was a handicap mark. If you had have told me this horse would be allotted OR64 at the start of the year I'd have bitten your hand off, but the fact is he has yet to deliver on the track. With the stables horses now in form and running well after breaks, the time looks right to get behind Scarabocio and the opposition here look fairly average. 8/1 is a nice price, you'll do better again on the exchanges.

Profit & loss: day: +0.20 / month: +18.00 / year: -113.46

Wednesday 8th August 2012

Just one bet for today.

6.00 Kempton Beat Route 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 2nd - Settled @ 8/1 S.P. 1/4 odds.

The favourite Rawaki hasn't proven his stamina for this trip on this particular surface, nor does he look particularly well handicapped. Kuda Huraa did not impress last time out and he looks short for what he achieved there. With conditions at Kempton slow and particularly testing, I want to be on something that knows his way around the course tonight and twice course and distance winner Beat Route appeals at 12/1 with the dead eight lining up. He is a five year old son of Beat Hollow who seems to enjoy it around here, with a record of 2-6-20 at the track, but his penultimate run on turf suggested he is still improving and if we excuse his run last time out, which might have come too soon after his win, he then enters calculations. The stable traditionally do well here and an experienced 3lb claimer takes a valuable allowance off. He might just be a bit better than OR70 and a chance is taken on him after a short break this evening.

Profit & loss: day: +1.00 / month: +17.80 / year: -113.66

Tuesday 7th August 2012

Just one bet for Tuesday.

5.55 Kempton Divine Pamina 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Represents a sire Dark Angel whose progeny have a very good record on polytrack, including a 16% strike rate at this track. The stable's horses have been out of form but there have been definite signs of the corner being turned in recent days and they will have a couple of well handicapped horses to go to war with. The selection is bred to be better than  OR65 and this classified stakes looks a nice bit of placement given the 3yo allowance she gets against more exposed sorts. Her run at Yarmouth last time out was promising and she travelled quite well on the bridle before struggling at the business end, it looked very much like she didn't handle Yarmouth's firm ground and I expect improvement this evening on the polytrack surface. She is drawn in stall 2 and Tom Queally keeps the ride. The surface is riding slow so I would hope she will sit prominently and be kept out of the kickback. In this company, 12/1 looks around four points too big and she makes appeal on an each-way basis.

Profit & loss: -0.20 / month: +16.80 / year: -114.66

Saturday 4th August 2012

A brilliant day's racing, traditionally one of our favourite of the year and we have four bets this afternoon. We've only outlayed 12pts, one winner would be nice but a place or two would see us recover our outlay.

2.05 Goodwood - Stewards Sprint Stakes - Piazza San Pietro 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 50/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, Stan James,www.betpack.com, independents - all 1/4 odds 5 places)

Horses who win this race need to be well versed in the art of racing downhill, and with a lifetime record racing on downhill tracks of 221837013221141853 the selection has to enter calculations at a massive price. There doesn't seem to be a major draw bias at Goodwood this week, but stall 28/28 could be tricky to negotiate. However, the selection has a history of hanging left under pressure and being close to the left hand rail might help him in the closing stages. In 41 turf starts, the selection has won ten times and finished in the first three a total of 24 times which says a lot for his consistency. He made his debut for this stable over course and distance in May, fast finishing a half length behind Chilli Green who reopposes today. The selection is 3lb better off with that rival and around twice the price. A stronger pace will suit our horse and with many of the market principals having questions to answer regarding their ability to handle the track and / or recent form, we'll back the horse who is proven in the conditions at a massive price.

3.55 Goodwood - Stewards Cup

Seal Rock 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, VC Bet, Independents - 1/4 odds 5 places guaranteed- 25/1 1/4 odds 5 places generally)

Oasis Dancer 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, VC Bet, Independents - 1/4 odds 5 places guaranteed - 40/1 1/4 odds 5 places generally)

A fantastic renewal. Seal Rock has the assistance of a pilot who shone on Orders From Rome at Epsom the other night, getting her fractions just right when Jamie Spencer made a hash of his on Desert Philosopher up front. She claims a very useful five pounds for her trainer, who has already had a winner at Goodwood this week. The selection has always looked a very classy sprinter, and his performance over course and distance last October a short head behind Gentle Lord marked him down as a horse to follow at this track. He has grown into his frame as a four year old, and a win at Pontefract has been followed by a couple of fair runs on soft and heavy ground which I don't think suits him. This is likely to have been his target all season and he looks well drawn in the middle and well handicapped.

Oasis Dancer has had back problems which have marred his career to date, but his shrewd handler has campaigned him on the all weather to good effect resulting in a 5lb lower turf mark which sees him potentially well handicapped here. He is a class act on his day, and his best efforts have come on good or better ground. He ran second over seven furlongs here in a maiden behind Workforce, and seemed to handle the track fine. There are obvious caveats, such as his poor recent turf form, but they can be excused quite easily on the basis of the ground, and like our other selection Seal Rock, he is a perfect trends pick for this race as a four or five year old rated 95+ with a recent run under his belt. 40/1 was far too big and is long gone now.

5.15 Newmarket My Son Max 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Paddy Power, William Hill, Stan James, www.betpack.com, independents) - E/W 3rd

Represents a shrewd Newmarket handler who does well with his small string and has a good record at this track. My Son Max has hinted for a while that a drop to sprinting on good ground could be a good idea, and up against quite a few exposed or out of form sprinters today he is given a chance at a big price under Jamie Spencer, who looks an eye catching booking. Spencer obviously excels on hold up horses, and the selection will have to be allowed find his way into this race gradually given the drop in trip. He will likely be held up in rear and allowed to get into a rhythm, something Spencer does excel at, and it is really a matter of whether the race develops around him well enough to get him involved with his finishing kick. The horse looks potentially unexposed at this trip and has been running really well over further against some good, progressive horses. If the change in conditions ekes out some improvement, he can win this and 20/1 is far too big.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +17.00 / year: -114.46

Friday 3rd August 2012

Another fine day's racing in prospect at Goodwood today.

Clients please note we may have an evening bet released at 5.30pm, also look out for Saturday selections as the afternoon goes on - it is very likely selections for tomorrow will be released at some point this afternoon after prices are released, and then again tonight.

3.10 Goodwood Boom And Bust 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 28/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 25/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 4th

Won this last year but has a poor draw this time around. Having said that, I think the price is far too big given that the selection has ideal conditions. He doesn't have to make all, and if Hayley can bounce him out and sit prominently the price all of a sudden becomes very fair. The stable had a horse run well at a big price here yesterday and in a contest that has no standout candidate, proven course and distance form is sided with.

3.45 Goodwood

Pabusar 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Secret Asset 3pts win @ 22/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed)

Pabusar travelled really well behind Hamish McGonagall last time out and I don't think this sharper five furlongs will inconvenience him at all. He won his maiden here and looks to be developing into a top class sprinter for his in form stable. He is drawn well and double figures is too big.

Secret Asset is an extremely fast horse who has ideal conditions for the first time in a long time today. He needs a manic pace to run and and, drawn in stall 15 near the rail I can't believe his luck - he is drawn nearHamish McGonagall, Masamah, Noble Storm and Pabusar. He really has come up trumps in that regard and at 20/1+ he is well worth three points to return sixty.

Profit & loss: day: -1.00 / month: +23.00 / -108.46

Thursday 2nd August 2012

Our excellent summer form continued yesterday with a 14/1 winner in Sir Graham Wade, who was impressive.

1pt each-way double Blue Surf and Clon Brulee (take guaranteed odds 14/1 and 10/1 generally)

2.15 Goodwood Blue Surf 3pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Obviously I've looked at all the Johnston horses here but none of them look specifically laid out and it might be that Blue Surf has been. Amanda Perrett has not endured the best couple of years in terms of winners but she had two at Lingfield the other day and she always targets a good horse at this meeting. Blue Surf impressed at Windsor last time out and given that he was up against hardened handicappers, there was a lot to like about the way he won. He is up only 4lb for today and he has already run well here over a mile behind Chill The Kite as a two year old. He has a wide draw to overcome but that was no barrier to success yesterday and at the prices he looks good value - we'll include him in an each-way double.

3.15 Goodwood Simenon 4pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

It is not like Willie Mullins to tilt at windmills and he must feel his star flat stayer has a good chance against the likes of Sadler's Rock, one would assume he has a good line on the form. I wasn't overly impressed with the Ascot Gold Cup this year and a number of them looked like real plodders in the finish. Simenon has a turn of foot and I think he actually looks a good price at 9/2 to put the race to bed using his late acceleration. Ryan Moore again takes the ride.

5.25 Goodwood Clon Brulee 3pts win @ 11/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Has been ultra impressive in winning the last twice and looks a real good stayer in the making. The stamina on his dam's side of the pedigree suggests today's trip will be no problem and he has the necessary experience to win this - most horses who triumph in this contest have already experienced life in handicaps. Stall 1 looks fine given his forward running style. David Barron doesn't send many on the trip from North Yorkshire, but he has a decent line on Assizes through his own Muffin McCleay and you can take it as read that he fancies his chances of confirming that form at least given that he has taken the trouble to send him down.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: +24.00 / year: -107.46

Wednesday 1st August 2012

Two races of interest at Goodwood today.

A further e-mail will follow before 3.30pm - we may or may not have a bet in the Galway Plate, I want to wait as long as possible and see what the ground is like there.

2.00 Goodwood 

Beyond 3pts win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Nafaath 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Quite a few no hopers and arm chancers in this line up, and there are not many who look like proper stayers and have shown form in 2012. Beyond fits into the latter category, but he represents a stable famous for bringing its horses to the races fit after an absence. His Sandown win last year marked him down as a real staying galloper - he did all his best work at the finish and their was no turn of foot, just pure grinding on the way to the line as he ran past another good stayer Red Kestrel. He is one I would bank on to improve for the step up in trip and the improving Willie Twiston Davies takes 7lb off meaning he only carries 8-5 on his back.

Nafaath ticks all the boxes, he is guaranteed to stay and his form at Royal Ascot behind Simenon looks strong. Again he did nothing but gallop on strongly at the finish, and it is interesting his trainer asserts he is in better form going into today's race. He will be versatile as regards the ground and his handicap mark is just a pound higher than at Ascot which leaves him looking fairly treated.

3.45 Goodwood Sir Graham Wade 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON @ 14/1

Sir Graham Wade has a similar profile to yesterday's Johnston winner Landaman in that he seems to have been put away with a later season campaign in mind. The maiden he won at Haydock has worked out quite well, with the second and third both winning since and rated 78 and 84 now. That leaves the selection looking nicely handicapped off OR80, and his trainer's positive comments with regard to his ability are also encouraging. He does suggest he is a bit backward mentally, but he was very brave in squeezing through a gap that wasn't really there at Haydock and he didn't really get a chance to gallop until very late in the day - he won going away and looks value for more than the winning margin. A stronger pace is most likely to help him here and if he takes things in his stride, he probably has enough ability to win. Double figure odds are too big.

Profit & loss: day: +36.00 / month: +36.00 / year: -95.46

Tuesday 31st July 2012

A cracking week's sport all around, with the Galway festival taking centre stage in Ireland, and Glorious Goodwood, second only to Royal Ascot in importance as regards high summer flat meetings, taking centre stage in the U.K. Throw in London 2012 and it looks a hard week to beat.

We have two races of particular interest on day one of Goodwood.

4 x 0.5pts cross win doubles on today's four selections (Total 2pts) - drop us an e-mail if you aren't sure how to place this bet. Try to use a bookmaker offering guaranteed prices on multiple bets, ie. Bet 365, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Boylesports, VC Bet, William Hill - most offer this concession online only)

3.10 Goodwood - Class 1 Bet365 Lennox Stakes (Group 2)

Majestic Myles 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Firebeam 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Some good value in this market in my view, specifically because I rate Chachamaidee a bit below what most people seem to. I think the form of her listed victory is poor at this kind of level, and the race was rather set up for her. She has only ever beaten the boys in a poor conditions stakes at York in May 2011 (many of her opponents were out of form) and she is worth taking on at 7/4 - I think she will drift on course. Libranno is most people's idea of next best but his best ever RPR was 115, and he will need to improve on the RPR's of 106 and 111 he posted when winning on his last two starts. Majestic Myles suffered a terrible trip in this race last year and didn't get a good positional ride from Hanagan. There wasn't much between he and Libranno then, and there was only a length in it when the selection was held by the same horse on his penultimate run at Newmarket. Freddie Tylicki has since made all on this horse to win at Chester posting an RPR of 114. You would like to think that Hanagan and Fahey will try to make all this time, the stable are in blinding form right now and this horse looks to be improving. From stall three he should be able to sit first or second and bowl along - he might be hard to pass at the business end.

Firebeam is harder to assess, but again stable and jockey are in fine form. The selection is lightly raced for a four year old, having debuted at three, but he holds Majestic Myles on Haydock form from May, and he almost beat Red Jazz there having been well backed. He clearly shows plenty at home, but he has an annoying habit of finishing weakly having travelled well. Saying that, quicker ground might help him here, as well as a faster track and a possible decent tow into the race if Ryan Moore decides to settle him. That Haydock race was run in around 1min29secs, and he travelled all over Red Jazz before going down by 1/4 length. Tomorrow's race should be run in around 1min25secs which I feel will be to his advantage and if you can forgive his French run (ground described as good but he may not have travelled well) and his last run on heavy going, he becomes a bet here and he looks too big at 8/1.

5.25 Goodwood - Mobile at Bet 365 Stakes (Handicap)

Noverre To Go 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, 5 places guaranteed, or take 12/1 generally guaranteed)

Kingsgate Choice 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Surprisingly it took me a long time to come down on the side of Noverre To Go here, given that we have backed him last twice and have noted the excellent form of the Harris sprinters in the last weeks. It has to be said, though, that he has a fine looking draw around the pace here with Silvanus and Fair Value on one side, and Le Toreador and Cadeaux Pearl not far to the other side. He is drawn on a part of the track that is traditionally advantageous on good ground in sprints here, and although the bias has been less pronounced in recent years, I would make an educated guess that it is unlikely to be a negative (ie. I think it will either be a positive or there will be no discernible bias). The run at Newmarket was pretty decent considering most of the selecton's form had been on the all weather and his handicap mark still looks tempting. James Doyle returns to the saddle having won on him at Kempton (rode him with loads of confidence). I would guess Harris wasn't to hard on him after the Kempton win and Newmarket might have been a bit of a prep for this week. A penalty just might see him reappear in the Stewards Cup proper, or the consolation race on Friday.

Kingsgate Choice represents a stable whose small string are in recent winning form. Kingsgate Choice is drawn near enough the middle of the track here, again we can only guess on the draw but Falasteen and Hamoody aren't too far away so he should get a tow. The selection is 2lb better off for 3/4 length and a head with Noverre To Go from that Newmarket form last time. He is selected because this sharp test might suit him better, and indeed he showed more raw speed than Noverre To Go that day. He faded but he has always been better on good or quicker ground and if the rain stays away (as most of it has seemed to), then he looks overpriced at the odds. Tom Queally is a good booking.

Profit & loss: day: -14.00 / month: +90.02 / year: -131.46

Saturday 28th July 2012

Unlucky last night with Red Rhythm done by a nose in a photo, again they're running well so I'm happy with how things are going.

A couple of interests today.

2.55 Ascot

Taajub 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Bet 365, Blue Square, 888 Sport, William Hill, Independents) - E/W 2nd

Dancing Freddy 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I can see absolutely no reason why Taajub is 14/1 today after his course and distance win last week, he is an 8/1 shot in my book here and some strange pricing up of sprints as usual is working in our favour. I think he can improve again and defy a penalty, he will need luck in running and he may not be so lucky with the draw from a pace point of view this week but the price compensates and we'll play each-way.

Dancing Freddy does have the luck of the draw here, something he didn't have last week. He led the near side group that day, showing blistering speed in the process. But I've always thought this horse is best with a lead, and he has come up trumps big time with the draw here on a part of the track I feel has been favoured just lately, with two speed monsters, Fratellino and La Fortunata, drawn either side of him. If William Carson can bide his time here, he could bely massive odds and cause a rewarding shock.

3.45 York Sacrosanctus 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 18/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Clients will note an angle developing here. Sacrosanctus beat Taajub fairly comfortably at Epsom last time out, and I think the form is very strong. He is developing into a very smart sprinter for Scott Dixon and I feel there is more to come given that he is only a four year old. He is game, tough, and has early speed to burn and he is overpriced at 18/1 today. Tom Queally has won on him before and he is a very positive booking.

Profit & loss: day: +0.00 / month: +104.46 / year: -117.46

Friday 27th July 2012

Our two each-way bets yesterday came 5/17 and 4/8, one of those days! But our selections continue to run well and we're in fine form.

We'll have a quiet weekend, there may be one or two selections tomorrow but I'm not sure as of yet. All roads from here lead to Glorious Goodwood, we have bundle of interests there this year and I feel we've a very strong handle on the form, the sprints in particular.

Three for today.

2.55 Ascot Party Royal 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (brucebetting.com pays 1/4 odds guaranteed, Paddy Power, Bet 365, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Got bogged down in the ground at Chester last time, indeed he was staying on really well close home despite clearly not acting on the surface. Looks well handicapped off a mark of OR78 and his run in the Coventry was probably partly down to keenness and the jockey sending him on too fast. Back on quick ground with many of the stable horses returning to form, he looks the value here. Dansili Dual and Front Page News look vulnerable on form and this doesn't look that deep a race.

5.15 Ascot Clear Praise 5pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Wants fast ground on turf and a stiff five furlongs also looks ideal, as evidenced by his run at Lingfield last time out. He finished well behind a subsequent winner but looked for all the world as though a stiffer test was needed. He holds Arctic Lynx on a piece of polytrack form over six furlongs (better off with that rival here) and some of these have yet to earn their stripes as toughened sprinters. The stable had a sprint winner at Epsom last night, this horse looks very well handicapped and the booking of Eddie Ahern, who rode Taajub to a 16/1 (advised) succes for us last Sunday over course and distance, looks very much a positive.

7.50 Chepstow Red Rhythm 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Finally improved for the application of a visor last time out and looks set to continue his progression tonight. Has course experience and has the necessary early speed to cope with this track's unusual demands. The stable have come back in to form with the quickening of the ground and, although there isn't a lot of juice in the price as regards value (I make him 7/2), he looks worth backing at 4/1 plus in a poorish race.

Profit & loss: day: -14.00 / month: +104.02 / year: -117.46

Thursday 26th July 2012

One small bet for this evening.

6.45 Doncaster Dubai Celebration 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Minimum stakes but at 25/1 in a messy looking race the selection looks a bit of value. He is related to numerous fast ground horses and should enjoy tonight's surface at Doncaster. He has run here twice before and has posted a topspeed figure here that compares very favourably with the rest of his rivals here - second only to the favourite Tabaret. He didn't show much at Carlisle last time out but the stables horses are coming into a bit of form and he should get a tow into the race from tabaret and Chocamoca who are drawn either side of him. We will play each-way and win to the minimum.

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Two for this afternoon and a possible evening bet, details on that at 5.30pm.

2.40 Bath Imperial Spirit 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Boylesports, betrogers.com, guaranteed, Stan James, Skybet, www.betpack.com, Tom Floods (Ireland), other independents)

Drawn out in the car park in stall 15 but at Bath that is sometimes no bad thing as the leaders often go too quick and get collared late on. Imperial Spirit is from a family who appreciate fast ground and he is very much bred to sprint. He showed good speed in a half decent maiden on his soft ground debut at Newbury, fading having gone fairly easily with the pace for most of the journey. Mick Channon's two year olds generally go well at this track and a chance is taken at a huge price that his second string can spring a surprise here. Has been quietly supported this morning.

3.15 Bath New Forest 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Andrew Balding has won this twice in the last ten years and been responsible for the runner up once. Three fillies have won in that time frame, including Lady Le Quesne of Baldings. It seems reasonable to assume the selection has been targeted at this contest and the speed she showed on debut would back that up. She travelled extremely well on the speed in a very hot Newmarket maiden before fading late on on ground which would have been too soft for her, over six furlongs. she looks too big a price here, I have no doubt she has the speed for this test, greenness in the finish might ultimately cost her but with the dead eight running she is good each-way value and a bit overpriced.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: +118.02 / year: -103.46