Friday 24th August 2012

Just one race of interest for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet released at 5.00pm.

3.40 York - The Nunthorpe Stakes

Monsieur Joe 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes, independents, guaranteed, 33/1 Totesport, Stan James, www.betpack.com)

Spirit Quartz 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, 20/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

A race that sometimes throws up a surprise winner and with the ground riding loose and dead, there is a fair chance some of the principals may get turned over - Ortensia and Bated Breath in particular want it fast. Pearl Secret has come in for support as he is proven on the ground but as a three year old who is inexperienced at this level he is taken on.

Monsieur Joe is ideally suited to this course and distance and is now with a trainer who is renowned for training top class sprinters. He won a listed race impressively last time out in what was probably a career best performance (although 1lb below best RPR), and horses who are on an upward curve tend to do better here than exposed older horses. It is interesting he was so much bigger this morning than Hamish McGonagall, whom he ran close over course and distance earlier this summer when the selection didn't seem to be at his best. At 33/1, he is far too big and he may also be drawn well in stall 17.

Drawn more towards the centre is his stablemate Spirit Quartz. He was second to Ortensia last time out and is another who looks to be on an upward curve. He should handle today's ground better than the Aussie mare and he is drawn around a lot of pace. He travels very well and it is encouraging that he found more at Goodwood than has sometimes been the case in the past - I think he will be much better suited by this flat track and he was also stranded on his own with no pace around him at Goodwood making his performance all the more meritorious. Frankie Dettori rides and 20/1+ is too big.

Profit & loss: day: +0.50 / month: +70.50 / year: -60.96