6.00 Redcar Navajo Nights 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Speculative at best but Navajo Nights represents a trainer whose juveniles have been coming on for their initial experience this season, sometimes markedly and including horses who have had a short break like this horse. Navajo Nights showed loads of speed on his debut but was very green, too free, and didn't know how to use his stride properly. He will have come on a bundle for the experience and given that he is very well bred to sprint, and represents a trainer with a good record at this track with juveniles in particular, he looks worth backing win and place.
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Two selections for today, and a possible evening bet released before 5.00pm.
Luca Cumani targets this meeting and his horses have been running well all week. The recent rain will help the chances of Ibicenco, a stoutly bred son of Shirocco who was last seen at Sandown running a very creditable race behind Opinion Poll in the Spring. Luca Cumani's quote is really positive:
"He wasn't really at his best in the spring but he ran an encouraging second in the Henry II and has had a summer break since. He is now working much better than I have seen him. I know it will be a hard task with Saddler's Rock in the race but he should go well."
This horse probably has Group 1 potential in my view, particularly on rain softened ground on a galloping track like York. He was beaten only 3/4 of a length in a Group 3 at Longchamp last year on soft ground (15f) and followed that up with a 1 1/2 length second in a Group 1 behind Campanologist in Cologne, over an inadequate 12f. He is bred to get better with age and distance and Cumani's assertion that he is working better than ever is a real positive. This race represents an ideal test for him at this stage of his career and I would suggest that if Saddler's Rock does not handle the ground today, he is probably the likely winner. 8/1+ looks fair and we'll play win only.
3.55 Goodwood Jontleman 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd (15p rule 4)
Mick Channon has won this race twice in the last ten years, including with Youmzain, and his Jontleman looks to have excellent claims based on his first two runs in maidens earlier this year. His debut was promising, and he was backed in to 5/2 second favourite for his second race in a Salisbury maiden which looks one of the strongest contests of its type so far this year. The 1st, 2nd, 5th, 7th, 10th and 11th have all won since, and one or two of them have developed into very decent types who can make their mark in pattern company (Roz, who finished last, has already won a listed race). Jontleman travelled well behind the leaders in that contest but got caught behind a wall of horses and tapped for toe at a vital time when making his challenge. He wasn't given a hard time and it is interesting he steps up in trip by two furlongs for today's race. He is bred for middle distances on his dam's side and one mile looks as if it will be well within his compass. As a son of Whipper, he is likely to enjoy the cut in the ground caused by the recent rain, that sire's actual versus expected value in soft ground has been consistently strong and he looks physically as if cut in the ground will help him. The negative is a 74 day break, but the trainer's juveniles usually go ok after a similar break at at double figure odds, he is well worth backing each-way.
Profit & loss: day: -7.25 / month: +63.25 / year: -68.21
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