Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Thursday 2nd August 2012

Our excellent summer form continued yesterday with a 14/1 winner in Sir Graham Wade, who was impressive.

1pt each-way double Blue Surf and Clon Brulee (take guaranteed odds 14/1 and 10/1 generally)

2.15 Goodwood Blue Surf 3pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Obviously I've looked at all the Johnston horses here but none of them look specifically laid out and it might be that Blue Surf has been. Amanda Perrett has not endured the best couple of years in terms of winners but she had two at Lingfield the other day and she always targets a good horse at this meeting. Blue Surf impressed at Windsor last time out and given that he was up against hardened handicappers, there was a lot to like about the way he won. He is up only 4lb for today and he has already run well here over a mile behind Chill The Kite as a two year old. He has a wide draw to overcome but that was no barrier to success yesterday and at the prices he looks good value - we'll include him in an each-way double.

3.15 Goodwood Simenon 4pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

It is not like Willie Mullins to tilt at windmills and he must feel his star flat stayer has a good chance against the likes of Sadler's Rock, one would assume he has a good line on the form. I wasn't overly impressed with the Ascot Gold Cup this year and a number of them looked like real plodders in the finish. Simenon has a turn of foot and I think he actually looks a good price at 9/2 to put the race to bed using his late acceleration. Ryan Moore again takes the ride.

5.25 Goodwood Clon Brulee 3pts win @ 11/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Has been ultra impressive in winning the last twice and looks a real good stayer in the making. The stamina on his dam's side of the pedigree suggests today's trip will be no problem and he has the necessary experience to win this - most horses who triumph in this contest have already experienced life in handicaps. Stall 1 looks fine given his forward running style. David Barron doesn't send many on the trip from North Yorkshire, but he has a decent line on Assizes through his own Muffin McCleay and you can take it as read that he fancies his chances of confirming that form at least given that he has taken the trouble to send him down.


Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: +24.00 / year: -107.46

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