Tuesday 14th August 2012

Just one bet for today on a day with more quantity than quality.

3.20 Ayr Dhaular Dhar 2pts each-way @ 33/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, Bodog, or take 28/1 guaranteed with Bet 365 and many independents)

I remember tipping this fella on numerous occasions in summer 2006 and if you'd told me I'd be tipping him in early Autumn 2012 I'd have laughed at you. For Life showed us on Friday that there is no harm backing older horses in the right conditions, and the selection looks a fair bit overpriced today under conditions which look ideal for him. You could call him difficult to predict, in that he has a happy knack these days of popping up at a big price - his last three wins have seen him returned at SP's of 16/1, 14/1 and 28/1, he also collected place money at 18/1 last year. He represents Jim Goldie, whose stable had been in terrible form earlier this year, but they are now running much better in general and the Stewards' Cup success of Hawkeyethenoo has been followed up by victories for some fairly moderate types. Dhaular Dhar ran better then his finishing position suggests last time out. He was held up in an unusual race which was totally defined by pace, where it paid to sit just off the front runner Suits Me, who got an easy lead. Everything else in the race was pretty much a hold up horse and the winner sat near the front of the chasing pack. The rest finished in a heap. Dhaular Dhar was unsuited by the way the race panned out, he tanked along early on at the back of the bunch who ignored the pace setter, and he had shot his bolt by the business end. He steps back two furlongs today in a race that looks set to be strongly run, and I find it interesting he has dropped another 3lb to a mark of OR75 which he has already ran above this season. He also has the services of a good 5lb claimer, his last win came under 3lb claimer Gary Bartley and the previous two wins were under 7lb claimer Paul Norton and 7lb claimer Dean Heslop. He clearly responds to amateur handling and from stall six, he is ideally drawn to get a midfield sit which should be ideal. He is very much overpriced, I would make him a 16/1 shot here and 28/1 or better looks very good value.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +20.50 / year: -110.96