We have two races of particular interest on day one of Goodwood.
4 x 0.5pts cross win doubles on today's four selections (Total 2pts) - drop us an e-mail if you aren't sure how to place this bet. Try to use a bookmaker offering guaranteed prices on multiple bets, ie. Bet 365, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Boylesports, VC Bet, William Hill - most offer this concession online only)
3.10 Goodwood - Class 1 Bet365 Lennox Stakes (Group 2)
Majestic Myles 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Firebeam 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Some good value in this market in my view, specifically because I rate Chachamaidee a bit below what most people seem to. I think the form of her listed victory is poor at this kind of level, and the race was rather set up for her. She has only ever beaten the boys in a poor conditions stakes at York in May 2011 (many of her opponents were out of form) and she is worth taking on at 7/4 - I think she will drift on course. Libranno is most people's idea of next best but his best ever RPR was 115, and he will need to improve on the RPR's of 106 and 111 he posted when winning on his last two starts. Majestic Myles suffered a terrible trip in this race last year and didn't get a good positional ride from Hanagan. There wasn't much between he and Libranno then, and there was only a length in it when the selection was held by the same horse on his penultimate run at Newmarket. Freddie Tylicki has since made all on this horse to win at Chester posting an RPR of 114. You would like to think that Hanagan and Fahey will try to make all this time, the stable are in blinding form right now and this horse looks to be improving. From stall three he should be able to sit first or second and bowl along - he might be hard to pass at the business end.
Firebeam is harder to assess, but again stable and jockey are in fine form. The selection is lightly raced for a four year old, having debuted at three, but he holds Majestic Myles on Haydock form from May, and he almost beat Red Jazz there having been well backed. He clearly shows plenty at home, but he has an annoying habit of finishing weakly having travelled well. Saying that, quicker ground might help him here, as well as a faster track and a possible decent tow into the race if Ryan Moore decides to settle him. That Haydock race was run in around 1min29secs, and he travelled all over Red Jazz before going down by 1/4 length. Tomorrow's race should be run in around 1min25secs which I feel will be to his advantage and if you can forgive his French run (ground described as good but he may not have travelled well) and his last run on heavy going, he becomes a bet here and he looks too big at 8/1.
5.25 Goodwood - Mobile at Bet 365 Stakes (Handicap)
Noverre To Go 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, 5 places guaranteed, or take 12/1 generally guaranteed)
Kingsgate Choice 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Surprisingly it took me a long time to come down on the side of Noverre To Go here, given that we have backed him last twice and have noted the excellent form of the Harris sprinters in the last weeks. It has to be said, though, that he has a fine looking draw around the pace here with Silvanus and Fair Value on one side, and Le Toreador and Cadeaux Pearl not far to the other side. He is drawn on a part of the track that is traditionally advantageous on good ground in sprints here, and although the bias has been less pronounced in recent years, I would make an educated guess that it is unlikely to be a negative (ie. I think it will either be a positive or there will be no discernible bias). The run at Newmarket was pretty decent considering most of the selecton's form had been on the all weather and his handicap mark still looks tempting. James Doyle returns to the saddle having won on him at Kempton (rode him with loads of confidence). I would guess Harris wasn't to hard on him after the Kempton win and Newmarket might have been a bit of a prep for this week. A penalty just might see him reappear in the Stewards Cup proper, or the consolation race on Friday.
Kingsgate Choice represents a stable whose small string are in recent winning form. Kingsgate Choice is drawn near enough the middle of the track here, again we can only guess on the draw but Falasteen and Hamoody aren't too far away so he should get a tow. The selection is 2lb better off for 3/4 length and a head with Noverre To Go from that Newmarket form last time. He is selected because this sharp test might suit him better, and indeed he showed more raw speed than Noverre To Go that day. He faded but he has always been better on good or quicker ground and if the rain stays away (as most of it has seemed to), then he looks overpriced at the odds. Tom Queally is a good booking.
Profit & loss: day: -14.00 / month: +90.02 / year: -131.46
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