Wednesday 1st August 2012

Two races of interest at Goodwood today.

A further e-mail will follow before 3.30pm - we may or may not have a bet in the Galway Plate, I want to wait as long as possible and see what the ground is like there.

2.00 Goodwood 

Beyond 3pts win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Nafaath 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Quite a few no hopers and arm chancers in this line up, and there are not many who look like proper stayers and have shown form in 2012. Beyond fits into the latter category, but he represents a stable famous for bringing its horses to the races fit after an absence. His Sandown win last year marked him down as a real staying galloper - he did all his best work at the finish and their was no turn of foot, just pure grinding on the way to the line as he ran past another good stayer Red Kestrel. He is one I would bank on to improve for the step up in trip and the improving Willie Twiston Davies takes 7lb off meaning he only carries 8-5 on his back.

Nafaath ticks all the boxes, he is guaranteed to stay and his form at Royal Ascot behind Simenon looks strong. Again he did nothing but gallop on strongly at the finish, and it is interesting his trainer asserts he is in better form going into today's race. He will be versatile as regards the ground and his handicap mark is just a pound higher than at Ascot which leaves him looking fairly treated.

3.45 Goodwood Sir Graham Wade 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON @ 14/1

Sir Graham Wade has a similar profile to yesterday's Johnston winner Landaman in that he seems to have been put away with a later season campaign in mind. The maiden he won at Haydock has worked out quite well, with the second and third both winning since and rated 78 and 84 now. That leaves the selection looking nicely handicapped off OR80, and his trainer's positive comments with regard to his ability are also encouraging. He does suggest he is a bit backward mentally, but he was very brave in squeezing through a gap that wasn't really there at Haydock and he didn't really get a chance to gallop until very late in the day - he won going away and looks value for more than the winning margin. A stronger pace is most likely to help him here and if he takes things in his stride, he probably has enough ability to win. Double figure odds are too big.

Profit & loss: day: +36.00 / month: +36.00 / year: -95.46