Friday 28th September 2012

A nice winner this afternoon.

One for this evening.

6.45 Wolverhampton Bothy 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 18/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

Represents a stable with a good record in long distance races on the all weather. Bothy looks well handicapped on his old flat form and it is interesting he retains an entry in the Cesarewitch - he will almost certainly need a penalty to get in. Brian Ellison can get his horses ready fresh and he brought Marsh Warbler back from an absence (albeit a shorter one) to win at Southwell last year before a hurdles campaign. The selection has been quietly supported in the last couple of hours and I find it interesting Amy Ryan is booked - she is gunning for the apprentice title and is not likely to be riding too many horses who are out for the spin to get fit. These factors would point to Bothy being fit tonight, the stable clearly believe he is a stayer and if so, a mark of OR79 might be very fair. We'll weight the stake towards the win part of the bet because it is a bit more boom or bust than solid each-way. Too big at the current prices.

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Good profits yesterday, hopeful of more of the same today.

We may have an evening bet, released before 5.15pm.

3.05 Haydock Eminently 6pts win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Not guaranteed to go on the ground but if she does, I think she will win. She is related to soft ground winners such as Reverence, and has an action which would suggest the ground will not inconvenience. She missed the break at Kempton and was given a very easy time of it, travelling well in rear and staying on eye catchingly without being asked anything like a serious question. She should come on for that run and if she enjoys conditions, she might be the best horse in this line up and 7/2 looks very fair.

4.35 Newmarket Oxford Charley 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Brucebetting.com, guaranteed and 1/4 5 places, Skybet, Stan James,www.betpack.com, all 1/4 5 places, or take 9/1 guaranteed with Bet 365, Paddy Power, 1/4 5 places guaranteed)

Ridden by the excellent William Buick. More quantity than quality in here and most of these look exposed. The selection is an exception, he looks progressive and is officially 2lb well in. He is well draw to get close to the far rail which might well be an essential today, and his jockey is one of the more tactically aware which is always a good thing. His course second from last Saturday is among the best recent form, and with five places being paid and everything seemingly in his favour, a chance is taken that his stamina lasts the additional furlong (ran over one mile last Saturday).

Profit & loss: day: +13.00 / month: +43.65 / year: -60.61

Thursday 27th September 2012

One bet for this afternoon, we may have an evening bet but that's very much 50-50 at the moment.

2.20 Pontefract Surge Ahead 5pts win @ 5/1 (Sporting Bet, or 4/1 Betfred, Paddy Power, William Hill, independents, guaranteed) - WON

Ed Walker is becoming a decent trainer and placer of two year olds, although you won't hear it much in the racing press because he remains very much under the radar. Twice in the last two years he has sent second time out two year olds to lesser tracks to win, (Goodwood to Yarmouth second time out for the win, Kempton to Redcar second time out for the win) and Snurge Ahead gets his second start today having ran promisingly at Kempton first time up. Walker's juveniles are tending to improve for the run, and if the selection has made average progress I feel he can win this. He travelled strongly at Kempton, but was very green, he was never hit with the whip and when he tried to hang right William Buick corrected him and by the end of the contest you can see he has learned to use his stride properly and run straight and true. He is by Danehill Dancer out of a German bred mare, and with soft ground influence on both sides of his pedigree and an action that suggests it will be no problem, conditions should suit him. A good draw in stall two and the booking of the excellent Danny Tudhope is a bonus. I can't see Flawless Beauty acting on the ground, and I think Lock Moy may get outpaced around the turns and might not be a stable star.

Profit & loss: day: +20.00 / month: +30.65 / year: -73.61

Wednesday 26th September 2012

A nice winner this afternoon, just one at a big price for this evening.

7.20 Kempton Fly On By 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Bet 365, Betfred, VC Bet, William Hill, guaranteed - 40/1 generally)

From a stable who are in fine form at the moment, but unfortunately Fly On By has shown very little to date. However, there are reasons to expect an improved effort tonight. The selection is out and out bred for artificial surfaces, being by Byron (20% runners to winners, and 13% strike rate for his progeny on polytrack as opposed to 9% overall from a large sample size) out of a Polar Falcon mare. Polar Falcon mares get plenty of polytrack winners, Fly On By is half sister to a horse who was 4/6 on polytrack, including a win at this course. The selection is a strapping individual and has showed enough ability to lead and travel kindly through his races.

The second issue is the selections tendency to travel well for a while, before fading fast as if not bothered with racing. First time blinkers are applied tonight, and if they can sharpen up his attitude, his pedigree for the surface and the weak nature of this race suggests he is no forlorn hope. His trainer does well with three year olds in maidens, indeed they are profitable to back blind returning a profit of +34.15 to the pound stake (15% strike rate). They had a two year old win at 50/1 on Saturday, and I just feel that if the selection is going to show something, it will be tonight. Fitness, surface, track and trip should be no problem and Dane O'Neill will give him every chance to show his worth. He has been quietly backed on the exchanges today, and it is interesting connections persevere with maiden company despite being awarded a lowly mark of OR52.

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One for this afternoon, and we will definitely be betting at Kempton this evening, bets released before 5.15pm.

1.30 Goodwood Zamoyski 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Not convinced by Pythagorean here at all, he is a fizzy, keen sort and although his exaggerated action suggests he will handle the ground, it is hard to be sure. Zamoyski made a taking debut in a decent Ascot maiden, held up and allowed to find his way into the race slowly, briefly caught for room, before staying on strongly under hands and heels riding towards the finish. He wasn't subjected to anything like a hard time and that kindness can be rewarded today, with William Buick booked. The ground will be soft at Goodwood and the selection is by Dutch Art, whose progeny have a 20% strike rate on soft ground (too small a sample size on heavy 1/11 9%), and he looks like a galloper more than a quickener, both of which would suggest conditions will suit him. There is a temptation to play each-way here, but we could have done that yesterday with a 3/1 shot in an eight runner race and it doesn't always pan out as intended. I am happy to go win only as I feel the favourite is vulnerable.

Profit & loss: day: +17.00 / month: +10.65 / year: -93.61

Tuesday 25th September 2012

Valley Of Wings ran very well yesterday, but faded and still looked a bit green. He is a model for a six furlong nursery this winter.

One for today.

3.40 Beverley Wyldfire 5pts win @ 3/1 (Brucebetting.com, guaranteed, 11/4 generally guaranteed)

Derby entry from Richard Fahey's table. Wyldfire had nothing go his way last time, he was bumped, suffered a wide trip, and seemed to need a greater test of stamina than Thirsk's sharp seven furlongs. He gets an extended seven today with Beverley's stiff finish, on rain softened ground which connections must think he handles given the strong support he took at Newcastle on debut. Raven's Pass progeny are an unknown on soft ground thus far, but there is a distinct soft ground influence on the dam's side and on that basis I would assume he will act ok on it. I thought he would be a little closer to Stoute's favourite in the betting, 11/4 guaranteed or better looks like a decent price and he is our only bet of the day.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -6.35 / year: -110.61 

Monday 24th September 2012

Just one for this afternoon.

2.50 Kempton Valley Of Wings 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (William Hill, Stan James, Blue Square, betpack.com, bodog, 888 Sport)

Robert Cowell is not renowned for two year olds, but he gets the odd decent one and it is interesting he sent this horse to Newmarket first time out and booked Mikael Barzalona. The horse was really green, he didn't really know what was required of him, missed the break, didn't know how to use his stride, looked around a lot etcetera. However, it wasn't a bad maiden and it is interesting watching the replay that he came back on the bridle approaching the three pole, before being briefly ridden and coming back on the bridle again before fading. It suggests there is an engine there and thirty days break since and racecourse experience could make a huge difference to the horse. His dam went on the all weather and sire Three Valleys gets winners on the surface too. He is an eye catching looker, and a chance is taken that he has progressed enough to take a hand here. He is bred to make a two year old and meets quite a few three year old projects here, he may just have an edge in precocity.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -1.35 / year: -105.61 

Saturday 22nd September 2012

A good profit yesterday with Jamaican Bolt winning handily. Strawberry Flavour ran well but wasn't good enough to place; almost all our selections are running well which is heartening.

Some very good each-way value to be had in today's three big sprints and it is no surprise we have an interest in each race, we will also probably have an evening bet, which will be released at 5.15pm.

1.45 Ayr - Ayr Bronze Cup - Amenable 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Betfred, VC Bet, William Hill, Independents - all pay 1/4 odds 5 places guaranteed.)

Represents Dandy Nicholls, whose skill as a trainer of sprinters needs no introduction. The stable are in really good nick right now and Dandy has some well handicapped horses including the selection, who posted his first decent performance of the year when winning easily at Hamilton last time out. He is not pace dependent as he likes to sit prominently or make all, but I do find it interesting he is posted next to the speedy Ucanchoose, an Irish raider whose best form is over five furlongs and who will probably make the running. At around 16/1, Amenable looks a decent bet.

2.20 Ayr - Ayr Silver Cup - Grissom 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, Stan James, www.betpack.com - all pay 1/4 odds 5 places.)

Tim Easterby has had Grissom running on the wrong ground, over the wrong trip, anything to get this fella's handicap mark back down after an impressive win on heavy ground at Hamilton in July. It is hard to know if the ex-Alan Berry inmate has the class to win this, but conditions are no problem and he was anything but disgraced when beaten only  four lengths in the Stewards' Cup. A handicap mark of OR90 gives him room to manoeuvre, and a central draw near Cadeaux Pearl and Thunderball should mean he gets a good tow into the race. Ran well from a bad draw here last year.

3.30 Ayr - Ayr Gold Cup - Colonel Mak 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, www.betpack.com, William Hill, independents - all these pay 1/4 odds 5 places.) - E/W 5th 

Third in this race last year, but the manner of his victory at Doncaster in April suggested this horse has improved, and he has hinted all year that this would be his ideal race. It is very likely this has been his target all season. The race is not overloaded with early pace, so he will need luck from stall 22 as regards a tow into the race, but he is hard to resist with almost everything in his favour. It is hard to see him out of the places unless he is drawn completely away from where the race develops, and at 16/1 he should be backed to give his trainer a first win in this contest (has trained two horses to be placed, including Colonel Mak last year).

Profit & loss: day: -1.00 / month: +3.65 / year: -100.61 

Friday 21st September 2012

8.30 Wolverhampton Strawberry Flavour 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 28/1 (Sporting Bet, 25/1 Generally - guaranteed in places)

Strawberry Colour is selected at a price after a promising debut. She had to be hard ridden to take a prominent position, but once there she travelled very well and stayed there until the home straight. This race doesn't look impossible, 25/1 is too big and it seems she has been priced up based on unfashionable connections rather than breeding or racetrack promise. She is related to numerous course winners and should go better than her inflated odds suggest.

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One selections for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet to be released at 5.00pm.

4.00 Ayr Jamaican Bolt 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)  - WON

Plenty of pace drawn low, and with Even Stevens and to a greater extent Come On Dave both drawn either side of him, Jamaican Bolt is well drawn to take a prominent sit and kick on in the final furlong. His jockey Robert Winston has a 14% strike rate at this track and rides it well, and I would actually hopeful there is a split here because the far side will probably go faster if they do. Four places are paid each-way and it is no surprise the selection is now drawing support. There are obvious reasons to be cautious, with the draw likely to be a big factor, but more often than not pace is the key to these sprints and if it holds true the selection should be in the right place. Top weight is no problem, he carried 9-9 to victory on soft ground at Haydock and a similar display against lower weighted inferior opponents should see him go close.

Profit & loss: day: +44.00 / month: +4.65 / year: -99.61

Thursday 20th September 2012

A really decent card at Yarmouth this afternoon, and we have two selections.

We may have an evening bet, to follow at 5.15pm.

2.20 Yarmouth Dumbarton Rock 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 33/1 generally guaranteed)

Has been written off in the markets but ran really well at Southwell on his second career start. Was still a bit green and slow into stride, but he soon travelled quite well in the rear, although getting buckets of fibresand kicked into his face and having to race on what is the unfavoured inside rail at Southwell. He stayed on really well, however, and ran on to get place money again on an unfavourable part of the track in the closing stages. If he can come on for that run again, he might be good enough to run a place at least today in a maiden that probably won't take much winning unless one of the newcomers is very good. Franny Norton is having probably his best year ever and he takes the ride.

3.50 Yarmouth French Press 3pts each-way @ 11/2 (Generally, get guaranteed where possible)

Has been quietly backed by shrewd connections. Many of the horses in this nursery have showed temperament issues this season - Darkening, Black Monk, and Exotic Guest have all had problems learning to settle, while Al Mukhdam no longer holds his Champagne Stakes entry and I'm left wondering why his trainer targets this average looking nursery. French Press ran well in a decent Lingfield contest last time out, and he looks a specialist at this trip and probably open to further improvement. It is interesting that his owner most likely has a line on the favourite through Secretinthepark, who beat Darneking last time out, and the quiet money looks quite significant to me. I think he is a solid, improving two year old, and should be backed at 11/2.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -39.35 / year: -143.61

Wednesday 19th September 2012

I refer to the earlier e-mail first, regarding Lancelot Du Lac:

"My hope would be that he can get some cover today and make his finishing challenge later."

I really don't know how the jockey who rode the horse last time, who rode again today, wouldn't know to hold this horse up until, say, half a furlong out, and yet I do. It hardly requires balls of steel in a little Yarmouth maiden, but yet again the selection was in the lead fully 1.5 furlongs from home and got done because he started looking around and took a bad step, simply through greenness. He traded 1.05 in running and it hasn't been our week for even half decent jockeyship (Danny Tudhope the notable exception).

Will Buick and Patrick Hills ride our selections this evening, lets see how they go.

1pt e/w double on this evening's selections

6.45 Kempton Furzanah 3pts win @ 10/1 (Generally - get guaranteed, price drifting)

A daughter of Dubawi, whose progeny have a really good record on artificial surfaces. She continuously changed her legs at Sandown last time in the home straight under pressure, and it seemed as if they went a stride quick for her and nor did she enjoy the fast ground. Polytrack will suit her much better and she strides like a horse who will enjoy it. She looks fairly handicapped and with her claimer taking off three pounds and a good draw off the rail (the rail has NOT been favoured since the track was relaid) she looks a good price at 10/1. She is drifting, but it doesn't bother me and I'm happy to play anyway.

7.15 Kempton Like Clockwork 3pts win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Won his only start on polytrack easily over course and distance last spring. Things haven't gone his way since but s short break and the booking of William Buick suggests better can be expected this evening - his trainer suggests as much on his website. He is drawn wide, and it is hard to figure out how he gets to run off OR60 this evening having won that May contest so well. A chance is taken on his fitness and we will also put him in an each-way double.

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Two bets for Wednesday afternoon.

We will have an evening bet, released before 5.15pm.

2.10 Yarmouth Lancelot Du Lac 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (www.brucebetting, guaranteed, 15/2 William Hill, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Ran a fine race on his second start at Sandown in a maiden run in a faster time than Lionheart's on the same card (Lionheart is 5/1 here). He received a poor ride, although he was keen, his jockey failed to get him any cover and sent him a length into the lead too soon for an inexperienced horse. My hope would be that he can get some cover today and make his finishing challenge later. The two 7's beside his name have served to make him a nice price but he looks a match for most of these and only the favourite looks perhaps difficult to beat. However, I'd give him a sporting chance of doing so and we'll play each-way.

3.15 Yarmouth Emirates Queen 4pts win @ 9/2 (Boylesports, VC Bet, William Hill, independents, guaranteed)

Three year olds have a good record in this race and Emirates Queen looks a good bet at around 4/1+ to land the odds. She was really progressive until bombing out at Salisbury last time, but the ground was very soft and progeny of her sire Street Cry have an appalling record on soft ground. Back on a faster surface, I think she has an equal chance of winning as Timepiece, who is not a horse I would be backing at short odds.

Profit & loss: day: -10.60 / month: -30.35 / year: -134.61

Monday 17th September 2012

Great to get the Portland winner at a big price on Saturday, disappointing the max ran badly after we told you the favourite was a bad price. Still a decent profit on the day, Rebecca Romero was given an absolute shocker by Eddie Ahern too. Wasn't a good week for the jockeys riding our horses.

One for today.

5.30 Wolverhampton Merchant's Return 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Represents a trainer who does well here. Has shown promise on his all weather starts, but looks around himself a bit when under pressure and has probably been inexperienced. A first time visor should help him focus, and a mark of OR50 along with a 3lb claim from Simon Pearce should see him get involved here in what looks a very poor contest. Looks too big at 20/1 and is the bet of the day to smallish stakes.

Profit & loss: day: +1.00 / month: -19.75 / year: -124.01

Saturday 15th September 2012

A big outlay for us today, some days there are no opportunities around and some days they are plentiful. It hasn't been a good week, but the selections are generally running well without winning and I would expect a change of fortune today.

1.45 Bath Rebecca Romero 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Record at Bath reads 23213. Rebecca Romero was really impressive here in July when winning over course and distance, she is 4/4 for Richard Hughes but Eddie Ahern hasn't had things easy last twice on her, a muddling pace on both occasions would not have suited her. There is pace all over the place today and I feel she is well drawn in stall eleven to tuck in and travel, before they come back to her at the finish. Race conditions look absolutely tailor made, there is still juice in the handicap mark and with the right ride, she can land the odds.

3.00 Doncaster Doc Hay 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Paddy Power, 1/4 odds 5 places, or take Bet 365, Boylesports, independents 25/1 guaranteed) - WON

Trends suggest you want a high draw, horse aged five plus, and a weight of 8-12 or more to be winning the Portland. Doc Hay has two of the three, but carries only 8-11 on his back. He is now trained by David O'Meara, who is really catching the eye lately improving these older horses from other stables. Doc Hay's last run at Haydock was very decent, he finished really strongly over a trip that is a bit sharp for him and ground that was a bit too fast. Joe Fanning reported he hung right, perhaps feeling the ground. The selection was third in a listed race here last season, and although the form is debatable he has improved no end since and despite struggling to get his head in front, he has posted a number of decent efforts. He was put away for an Autumn campaign and I have to say the reappearance at Haydock really caught my eye. I expect a really big run today, he is drawn near Fratellino which gives him something to run at, and conditions look perfect for him.

4.40 Bath Cash Injection 4pts win @ 11/1 (Boylesports, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Saddle slipped last time, and a break after his penultimate run suggests his poor performance might be explainable, but on his June effort here Cash Injection has every chance of getting off the mark here. This is a terrible contest, and his 4/14 behind April Ciel looks in a different league to any of the recent performances posted by this lot. Karen George's stable were out of form at the time, but the first three home, and the six and ninth, have all won since giving the form some lustre. Things haven't gone right for Cash Injection in two runs since but there have been excuses and he has somehow dropped to a mark of OR47 following his last run, which surprises me given the slipped saddle (usually results in no handicap change). Raul Da Silva takes a further 3lb off, and if connections are lining this up, today probably has to be the day - there are only limited options for the rest of the turf season if he wants good ground, and he will struggle to get into a race if the mark drops any further.

Already Advised:

Doncaster, St. Leger Stakes, 15/09/2012.

Selection: Guarantee, 5pts each-way @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes, 14/1 generally - Maximum Bet)

Profit & loss: day: +28.00 / month: -20.75 / year: -125.01

Friday 14th September 2012

Again we didn't get the luck at Doncaster, with Repeater trapped in a pocket for most of the race and his jockey unfortunately asking him to sprint two furlongs from home when he is naturally a stayer.

One for this evening.

7.45 Wolverhampton Sunblazer 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 25/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, Coral, independents, 22/1 VC Bet guaranteed)

Represents a stable whose horses seem to be coming back to form. Their two year olds tend to come on a lot for a run, so it is encouraging that this one showed good speed and a professional attitude first time out at Epsom in a race that had depth, before losing a shoe and fading out of contention. The selection is by Dark Angel, whose progeny have a 20% strike rate at this track and tend to go well on the all weather generally. He definitely has an action that suggests  the surface will be no problem, and on breeding he looks like he should make up into an OR80+ type in time. Martin Dwyer seems to be coming from Doncaster specifically to ride him, and he has attracted quiet support this afternoon. There are no superstars in here, and I would be hopeful Sunblazer can improve markedly on his debut and justify some of his £25,000 price tag.

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2.20 Doncaster Repeater 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, 1/4 odds 3 places, 12/1 1/5 odds VC Bet, Ladbrokes, William Hill)

Really interesting that Sir Mark Prescott runs this horse here rather than the preceding Mallard Stakes. Repeater is bred very much with stamina in mind, being by Montjeu out of a mare who is related to Time Charter, and his running style has long suggested a step up to marathon distances would suit. He receives a stone from Sadler's Rock, and 18lb from Colour Vision, both of whom I feel have had hard seasons. I actually think Royal Ascot may still have left a mark on both, and I don't rate the older generation as a vintage bunch of stayers. Repeater stayed on very stoutly last time out having been blocked in his run, at double figure odds he is worth backing each-way for a trainer who is extremely shrewd and seems to think, judging by this entry and a Cesarewitch entry, that he has a strong staying, progressive three year old on his hands.

4.05 Doncaster Macs Power 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

An absolute twicer, so those of you betting on the exchanges might consider trading out around evens in running. I think 7/1 represents excellent value in this company, though, because Mac's Power has been holding his form well in top company this summer, and having dropped to a mark of OR97 up against lesser horses, he rates a bet here. He has won at Doncaster, hold up horses have been doing well this week, and Jamie Spencer has been riding the track really well. Too big a price, I make him a 5/1 shot.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: -48.75 / year: -153.01

Thursday 13th September 2012

Porcini ran a fine race in defeat last night, landing us each-way money, but she was a bit green when asked to pick up and, with stronger handling, might well have won.

Two selections for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet to be released at 5.15pm.

1.50 Doncaster Coolnagree 4pts win @ 10/1 (Paddy Power, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

Coolnagree looks really interesting coming over from Ireland for this Group 3. The selection has improved a total of 20lbs on official ratings as a three year old, and recently came back from a three month absence to run a fine race at Tipperary on ground that might have been too heavy for her. She was held up in rear that day and didn't get the best of runs, staying on nicely when finally getting out in the open. A galloping seven furlongs and strong pace will be perfect for her, for she holds some of the strongest seven furlong form in this field - a comfortable success over Ishvana, the Irish 1,000 Guineas runner up and Jersey Stakes winner, being the highlight. She holds Sentaril on a line through Ishvana, and although collateral form can't wholly be trusted, 9/1+ about our filly looks very fair.

4.05 Doncaster Elusive Fame 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

Interestingly, there is not much pace in this six furlong sprint, and there is a chance that from stall four Elusive Fame might find her way to the front and bowl along happily. David Elsworth has an excellent record with fillies (profitable to back blind) and this horse has been in fine form this summer, consistently posting decent efforts and improving again when winning at Newmarket last month, following that up with a game second at the same track. She has loads of speed for seven furlongs, and drops back to six today after fading up Salisbury's stiff finish last time out, where she paid the price for travelling on a strong pace. The time backs this assertion up, it was the most impressive on the day by some way. The excellent William Buick is booked today, and if she can get in front early and hit that sweet spot down the centre of the track where most of the winners came from (should be easily done from stall 4 with stalls on stands' side), she can win a sprint in which much of the opposition look exposed.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -36.75 / year: -141.01

Wednesday 12th September 2012

Delighted we left Doncaster alone today, but we sure won't be leaving it alone tomorrow. I was right about particular track biases and the added rain only serves to complicate. I'd like to see a bit more rain for our max bet on Saturday but I don't think it is essential. 

We have one bet for Kempton.

6.15 Porcini 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Attracted some suport this morning (16's from 25's) and it is easy to see why. Her polytrack form at shorter distances would suggest she is unexposed over tonight's mile and a laf trip, and being out of Azamour by a Hernando mare she is perfectly suited to the distance. Her last run at Newmarket in a stronger race looks very decent in retrospect, especially considering she didn't seem to handle the good to firm ground, hanging in the closing stages. Check out her Wolverhampton form from the spring - the race worked out very well and most of them are rated at least in the seventies now. She has been dropped 3lb for that good Newmarket run which surprises me, in addition a very capable 3lb claimer who rides this track well has been booked. Off such a low mark, she looks excellent value here and I expect further support.

Profit & loss: day: +4.00 / month: -27.75 / year: -131.01

Tuesday 11th September 2012

One selections for this afternoon.

4.50 Leicester Ducal 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 7/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, www.brucebetting.com, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

Not a bad little contest on an above average card for Leicester. Ducal looks a spot of value as an unexposed, in form horse whose last two performances look very strong. His run  behind The Confessor at Goodwood looks very strong in the context of this company, he travelled well into the race and only found one too good in what was a really hot handicap. He was back to Goodwood on good to soft last time out and duelled for the lead around a furlong out before fading, possibly making his challenge too quickly and perhaps inconvenienced by the strip of ground he races on. He drops to lesser company today and, with the ground good to firm, I expect him to go well. He looks a decent each-way play at the prices.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -31.75 / year: -136.01

Saturday 8th September 2012

A nice return from our each-way double yesterday, a pity Pea Shooter didn't hang on to win.

Two for today.

2.15 Haydock Lexi's Hero 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Another from Kevin Ryan's stable. Lexi's Hero now looks well handicapped off OR90 following a disappointing season. Many of his poor runs can be excused for various reasons, and for one I expect the return of his regular cheekpieces to have a positive effect today. His run in the Stewards Cup in cheekpieces was promising, and with a decent draw, and an in form handler and jockey, I think he looks too big at the prices today.

3.25 Haydock Majestic Myles 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Paddy Power, 4 places guaranteed, or take 50/1 generally guaranteed)

Richard Fahey probably intended on Mayson being his number one here, but as things have transpired it is Majestic Myles who lines up. I think he is twice the price he should be, and although that still makes him a 20/1 shot, there are reasons to believe he can make the grade as a top sprinter. Some of his form opver seven furlongs looks very strong, his July win at Chester was extremely impressive. He was two lengths behind Strong Suit last time, but that was a messy race and he was also bumped at the start. I have long thought the selection was worth his chance over a strongly run six furlongs, he gets that chance today and at the prices he should be supported.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: -26.75 / year: -131.76

Friday 7th September 2012

1pt each-way double on today's selections - use Bet 365, Ladbrokes, Powers, William Hill, VC BEt - guaranteed prices in multiples. - E/W double: 2nd @ 10/1 & 3rd @10/1

3.35 Haydock Pea Shooter 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

The pace seems to be holding up at Haydock, and a chance is given to Pea Shooter, for Kevin Ryan, who had a 50/1 winner here yesterday. The selection has some very strong form to his name, but things haven't gone his way this year. Good performances at York and Newmarket have been mixed in with poorer efforts, but this three year old put in his best ever performance in this month last year, and with the stable in form he should be ready to produce his best today. Six furlongs looks his trip, the five at York was too sharp for him and he was never really in his comfort zone. He likes to race prominently and indeed traded odds on over course and distance in July, when he bagged the near rail. He is well drawn to do so again, but the ground is much more to his liking here (good to firm) and with the pace holding up, this race looks made for him. He tends to hang right under pressure so the rail may help. He has been backed in from 12/1 early doors which I did not envisage, but we can still get 8/1 which is fair.

4.10 Haydock Hopes N Dreams 3pts win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Another from the Ryan stable, again ridden by Amy Ryan. I usually wouldn't back a filly against colts over sprint distances, but Hopes N Dreams has already beaten the boys and she looks extremely progressive this season. Conditions have not been in her favour on her last two runs, soft ground at the Curragh and Epsom where she almost unseated. Previous to that, she destroyed Barkston Ash, who reopposes off 5lb worse, by fully 3 1/2 lengths over this trip. She needs fast ground, but three wins this season already suggests she is highly progressive and I fancy her to add a fourth today.

Profit & loss: day: +3.25 / month: -19.75 / year: -124.76

Thursday 6th September 2012

Two selections for Thursday.

4.40 Haydock Qushchi 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Goes well at this time of year and came back to form last time out when second to the talented Caravan Rolls On (pair clear). Still looks well handicapped off a mark of OR91 and the 7lb claim of apprentice Michael J. Murphy is absolute robbery. The selection can race prominently and that might be an advantage in a potentially muddling race. 7/1 looks fair, especially as I'm not convinced by the three year olds.

7.10 Kempton Dark Lane 4pts win @ 4/1 (Boylesports, VC Bet, Ladbrokes, independents, guaranteed, also 4/1 Stan James,www.betpack.com)

Has some very decent all weather form in the book off higher marks than this, and they include a course and distance win. There should be a strong pace on here with Prince Of Passion in the line up, and I would hope Cathy Gannon can tuck the selection in from stall seven and get a good position early on. The selection ran well at Bath yesterday when he didn't appear to handle the downhill part of the track, it is no surprise all his wins have come on flat tracks and he is taken to get his head back in front today for his in form handler.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: -23.00 / year: -125.01

Wednesday 5th September 2012

One for this afternoon, and an evening bet which will be sent before 5.00pm.

2.30 Lingfield Thiqa 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Represents a stable in fine form at present, and ridden Silvestre De Sousa who is also going very well. Thiqa was sent off 11/8fav on debut at Kempton, and is clearly quite well regarded as such. She tried to make all on what was a really slow surface, but tired late on, no surprise since it was her debut and the surface had only been relaid. She is by New Approach, but there is little evidence to suggest he is going to be a sire of any prominence on artificial surfaces,  but a 28% strike rate on turf speaks for itself and I reckon Thiqa may just improve for this surface today. 5/1 looks a very good price and she is taken in favour of Ghanaian, whose finishing effort didn't impress last time (even though that one steps back in trip).

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -15.00 / year: -117.01

Monday 3rd September 2012

One bet for Monday.

3.30 Wolverhampton Knowe Head 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Comes with an attached caveat in that he reappears after a mid season break, but Knowe Head's Wolverhampton form is very strong and he has been racing in better company than this both on the all weather and on turf in recent times. His Chester run can be excused because he doesn't handle soft ground, previous to that he had put up two lifetime best performances in winning at Newmarket and running second to Watered Silk at Chester. He remains unexposed off a mark of OR76, and having raced just 19 times I would suggest he is open to further progression. Some of his form, for example his third at Doncaster in March, is working out very well, and it is worth taking the chance at the prices that he has simply had a refreshing break and is being targetted at a late summer campaign.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -10.00 / year: -112.01

Saturday 1st September 2012

Just one interest for Saturday evening.

6.40 Bath Cats Eyes 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

An improving three year old filly who has won twice over course and distance. Trained by Robert Cowell, who is not only good at training sprinters, but has an eye for placing them well, and I think this filly has been placed well today. She won impressively over course and distance last time and has really developed the winning habit this summer. She looks progressive and remains unexposed, and I cannot see why she is not favourite here. Shane Kelly knows her well and she will be our only bet this evening.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -5.00 / year: -107.01

Friday 31st August 2012

One interest for this evening.

8.20 Wolverhampton Fantasy Fighter 3pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A really interesting proposition off a basement mark of just OR53 with Adam Beschizza, who has won on him before, taking a further 3lb off his back. The selection rather lost his way for John Quinn, and slid down the handicap having transferred to John Long last summer. The Long stable have a history of sweetening up soured older horses, and they gave Fantasy Fighter fully six months off this year before his recent comeback at Yarmouth. He ran really well at Yarmouth, albeit in a very poor race, but he has never been any good on turf and that was one of his best performances on the ratings on turf. What interests me here is that he usually shows his well being on turf before going on to run well on the all weather - a decent run at Yarmouth in August 2010 was followed by placings of 3211 on the all weather, and as recently as last year a return to some sort of form at Yarmouth saw him follow up with an RPR of 64 off an OR64 at Lingfield (all weather) next time out. The difference today is that his all weather rating has now slipped right down in conjunction with his turf mark, and there is little doubt he is better than OR53 on this surface. He clearly didn't let himself down on the firm ground at Yarmouth last time, and back on his favourite polytrack over his favourite course and distance, he looks sure to go well if the trainer has sweetened him up. This is a decent race for the grade, but some of the principals are unproven on the surface and if the selection returns to something even resembling his best form, he should go close. A strong pace set by Almaty Express and Aubrietia will be ideal for him, and a draw in stall six is fine. I have no problem laying out eight points here.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: +32.05 / year: -102.01

Thursday 30th August 2012

One bet for this evening.

8.50 Kempton Fantasy Gladiator 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Ran his best race for some time last week over this course and distance under Jimmy Quinn, in a decent contest won by Little Black Book who reopposes. The selection is a triple course winner and has won once over course and distance, but he had been off for three and a half weeks before his last run and may have been a bit fresh, as evidenced by the fact that he pulled hard early on. He was also stranded out wide from stall 14 of 14, and his jockey didn't seem to get him much cover during the race. He will probably strip 100% fit tonight and if he settles better he is on a very lenient handicap mark, having been dropped two pounds for that last win, and with Adam Beschizza taking a further 3lb off. His draw tonight in stall eight of ten doesn't look as bad, and with some of the market principals looking short enough for what they have achieved, a chance is taken on the selection getting the required luck in running to land a sixth career win.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +45.05 / year: -89.01

Wednesday 29th August 2012

Three interests on the polytrack this evening.

6.10 Wolves I've No Money 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Represents a small stable and seems to have gone unnoticed in the market. Ridden by a jockey who rides the track well and who is actually returning a level stakes profit from his rides. The selection is drawn well and it is his form from Kempton last time out that interests me. He was held up with virtually no chance in the rear over Kempton's fast five furlongs, where it pays to be handy. He made up plenty of ground from the rear but was twice blocked in his run, coming home strongly in the end. A first time hood is applied tonight and the tongue tie is retained, the stable is in form and I think he may be well handicapped. 16/1+ is too big.

7.20 Kempton Gucci D'Oro 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

As an American bred, who has only offered a glimmer of hope in a few runs over shorter trips so far, Gucci D'Oro has a very similar profile to his stablemate Al Khawaneej, who made his all weather debut stepped up in trip at this course and won well. The selection hasn't shown much in turf maidens or handicaps, but he didn't seem to handle the undulations of Brighton on his penultimate run (also hampered) or Chepstow (travelled well, faded and looked awkward, soft ground) last time out. He is very much bred for this surface, and although stamina is a question mark, his trainer has proven adept at knowing the right trip for his horses in the past. He may take after his damsire Alleged, who was full of stamina, and a chance is taken at double figure odds that he finds the necessary improvement. William Buick is a noteworthy booking.

7.40 Wolves Spanish Plume 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Betfred, guaranteed, Stan James, Totesport, www.betpack.com, Bodog, independents)

Looks to be developing into an out and out all weather horse, and his runs at this track recently have been impressive. He was raised 5lb for a short head defeat to Noble Jack on his penultimate run, but I am prepared to forgive him his last run at Haydock and hope for a better performance back on this surface tonight. As a horse who is still unexposed, he looks a big price at 20/1, and I would expect support to come because some of these look too short in relation to him.

Profit & loss: day: -5.20 / month: +45.05 / year: -89.01

Tuesday 28th August 2012

Three interests this evening at Southwell.

1pt each-way double on If You Can and Feeling Good, 4/1 and 8/1 generally, use a bookmaker who offers guaranteed prices for multiple bets.

5.20 Southwell If You Can 3pts win @ 9/1 (Boylesports, VC Bet, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

Represents a trainer who seems to have started targeting Southwell in the manner of Brian Ellison and other Northern trainers. It is interesting Easterby's horses at Southwell this summer have performed well on their first visit to the track, which was not always the case in the past. The selection might just be well handicapped on his form from Beverley last time, where he was sent into the lead at a really brisk pace, eventually tiring but matching strides with an OR80+ type for most of the journey. The trainer has booked a jockey with a 25% record at this track for this evening's assignment, and from a lowly mark of OR52, the selection looks open to improvement. Sire Ifraaj has a 14% strike rate at this track and the selection's half brother won here.

5.50 Southwell Feeling Good 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, guaranteed)

Gelded first time for this evening's contest. Races against horses unproven at the track, but Feeling Good has already posted some good figures here. He returns after a break and has the services of a very good 3lb claimer who has already won for this trainer at Ripon today. 4/1 looks too big and an each-way double with the first selection might also pay dividends.

6.50 Southwell Lucky Mark 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Represents a trainer who is something of an unknown, but seems to have acquired some decent horses including Capone, who is entered in the Ayr Gold Cup. He also had a first time out two year old run well over 5 furlongs at Pontefract the other day. Lucky Mark has one piece of form for Debbie Sanderson that puts him in with a shout tonight. His run behind Intense Pink over six furlongs on a bog was really interesting, he showed plenty of early speed and only faded from the furlong pole onwards. Backing three year olds against older sprinters is not usually my thing, but the older horses here are bog standard, and the booking of Robert Winston takes my eye. 25/1 is good value.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +50.25 / year: -81.21