One for this evening.
6.45 Wolverhampton Bothy 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 18/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)
Represents a stable with a good record in long distance races on the all weather. Bothy looks well handicapped on his old flat form and it is interesting he retains an entry in the Cesarewitch - he will almost certainly need a penalty to get in. Brian Ellison can get his horses ready fresh and he brought Marsh Warbler back from an absence (albeit a shorter one) to win at Southwell last year before a hurdles campaign. The selection has been quietly supported in the last couple of hours and I find it interesting Amy Ryan is booked - she is gunning for the apprentice title and is not likely to be riding too many horses who are out for the spin to get fit. These factors would point to Bothy being fit tonight, the stable clearly believe he is a stayer and if so, a mark of OR79 might be very fair. We'll weight the stake towards the win part of the bet because it is a bit more boom or bust than solid each-way. Too big at the current prices.
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Good profits yesterday, hopeful of more of the same today.
We may have an evening bet, released before 5.15pm.
3.05 Haydock Eminently 6pts win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON
Not guaranteed to go on the ground but if she does, I think she will win. She is related to soft ground winners such as Reverence, and has an action which would suggest the ground will not inconvenience. She missed the break at Kempton and was given a very easy time of it, travelling well in rear and staying on eye catchingly without being asked anything like a serious question. She should come on for that run and if she enjoys conditions, she might be the best horse in this line up and 7/2 looks very fair.
4.35 Newmarket Oxford Charley 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Brucebetting.com, guaranteed and 1/4 5 places, Skybet, Stan James,www.betpack.com, all 1/4 5 places, or take 9/1 guaranteed with Bet 365, Paddy Power, 1/4 5 places guaranteed)
Ridden by the excellent William Buick. More quantity than quality in here and most of these look exposed. The selection is an exception, he looks progressive and is officially 2lb well in. He is well draw to get close to the far rail which might well be an essential today, and his jockey is one of the more tactically aware which is always a good thing. His course second from last Saturday is among the best recent form, and with five places being paid and everything seemingly in his favour, a chance is taken that his stamina lasts the additional furlong (ran over one mile last Saturday).
Profit & loss: day: +13.00 / month: +43.65 / year: -60.61
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