A big outlay for us today, some days there are no opportunities around and some days they are plentiful. It hasn't been a good week, but the selections are generally running well without winning and I would expect a change of fortune today.
Record at Bath reads 23213. Rebecca Romero was really impressive here in July when winning over course and distance, she is 4/4 for Richard Hughes but Eddie Ahern hasn't had things easy last twice on her, a muddling pace on both occasions would not have suited her. There is pace all over the place today and I feel she is well drawn in stall eleven to tuck in and travel, before they come back to her at the finish. Race conditions look absolutely tailor made, there is still juice in the handicap mark and with the right ride, she can land the odds.
3.00 Doncaster Doc Hay 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Paddy Power, 1/4 odds 5 places, or take Bet 365, Boylesports, independents 25/1 guaranteed) - WON
Trends suggest you want a high draw, horse aged five plus, and a weight of 8-12 or more to be winning the Portland. Doc Hay has two of the three, but carries only 8-11 on his back. He is now trained by David O'Meara, who is really catching the eye lately improving these older horses from other stables. Doc Hay's last run at Haydock was very decent, he finished really strongly over a trip that is a bit sharp for him and ground that was a bit too fast. Joe Fanning reported he hung right, perhaps feeling the ground. The selection was third in a listed race here last season, and although the form is debatable he has improved no end since and despite struggling to get his head in front, he has posted a number of decent efforts. He was put away for an Autumn campaign and I have to say the reappearance at Haydock really caught my eye. I expect a really big run today, he is drawn near Fratellino which gives him something to run at, and conditions look perfect for him.
4.40 Bath Cash Injection 4pts win @ 11/1 (Boylesports, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)
Saddle slipped last time, and a break after his penultimate run suggests his poor performance might be explainable, but on his June effort here Cash Injection has every chance of getting off the mark here. This is a terrible contest, and his 4/14 behind April Ciel looks in a different league to any of the recent performances posted by this lot. Karen George's stable were out of form at the time, but the first three home, and the six and ninth, have all won since giving the form some lustre. Things haven't gone right for Cash Injection in two runs since but there have been excuses and he has somehow dropped to a mark of OR47 following his last run, which surprises me given the slipped saddle (usually results in no handicap change). Raul Da Silva takes a further 3lb off, and if connections are lining this up, today probably has to be the day - there are only limited options for the rest of the turf season if he wants good ground, and he will struggle to get into a race if the mark drops any further.
Already Advised:
Doncaster, St. Leger Stakes, 15/09/2012.
Selection: Guarantee, 5pts each-way @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes, 14/1 generally - Maximum Bet)
Profit & loss: day: +28.00 / month: -20.75 / year: -125.01
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