I refer to the earlier e-mail first, regarding Lancelot Du Lac:
I really don't know how the jockey who rode the horse last time, who rode again today, wouldn't know to hold this horse up until, say, half a furlong out, and yet I do. It hardly requires balls of steel in a little Yarmouth maiden, but yet again the selection was in the lead fully 1.5 furlongs from home and got done because he started looking around and took a bad step, simply through greenness. He traded 1.05 in running and it hasn't been our week for even half decent jockeyship (Danny Tudhope the notable exception).
Will Buick and Patrick Hills ride our selections this evening, lets see how they go.
1pt e/w double on this evening's selections
6.45 Kempton Furzanah 3pts win @ 10/1 (Generally - get guaranteed, price drifting)
A daughter of Dubawi, whose progeny have a really good record on artificial surfaces. She continuously changed her legs at Sandown last time in the home straight under pressure, and it seemed as if they went a stride quick for her and nor did she enjoy the fast ground. Polytrack will suit her much better and she strides like a horse who will enjoy it. She looks fairly handicapped and with her claimer taking off three pounds and a good draw off the rail (the rail has NOT been favoured since the track was relaid) she looks a good price at 10/1. She is drifting, but it doesn't bother me and I'm happy to play anyway.
7.15 Kempton Like Clockwork 3pts win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Won his only start on polytrack easily over course and distance last spring. Things haven't gone his way since but s short break and the booking of William Buick suggests better can be expected this evening - his trainer suggests as much on his website. He is drawn wide, and it is hard to figure out how he gets to run off OR60 this evening having won that May contest so well. A chance is taken on his fitness and we will also put him in an each-way double.
_________________________________________________
Two bets for Wednesday afternoon.
We will have an evening bet, released before 5.15pm.
2.10 Yarmouth Lancelot Du Lac 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (www.brucebetting, guaranteed, 15/2 William Hill, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
Ran a fine race on his second start at Sandown in a maiden run in a faster time than Lionheart's on the same card (Lionheart is 5/1 here). He received a poor ride, although he was keen, his jockey failed to get him any cover and sent him a length into the lead too soon for an inexperienced horse. My hope would be that he can get some cover today and make his finishing challenge later. The two 7's beside his name have served to make him a nice price but he looks a match for most of these and only the favourite looks perhaps difficult to beat. However, I'd give him a sporting chance of doing so and we'll play each-way.
3.15 Yarmouth Emirates Queen 4pts win @ 9/2 (Boylesports, VC Bet, William Hill, independents, guaranteed)
Three year olds have a good record in this race and Emirates Queen looks a good bet at around 4/1+ to land the odds. She was really progressive until bombing out at Salisbury last time, but the ground was very soft and progeny of her sire Street Cry have an appalling record on soft ground. Back on a faster surface, I think she has an equal chance of winning as Timepiece, who is not a horse I would be backing at short odds.
Profit & loss: day: -10.60 / month: -30.35 / year: -134.61
No comments:
Post a Comment