7.20 Kempton Fly On By 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Bet 365, Betfred, VC Bet, William Hill, guaranteed - 40/1 generally)
From a stable who are in fine form at the moment, but unfortunately Fly On By has shown very little to date. However, there are reasons to expect an improved effort tonight. The selection is out and out bred for artificial surfaces, being by Byron (20% runners to winners, and 13% strike rate for his progeny on polytrack as opposed to 9% overall from a large sample size) out of a Polar Falcon mare. Polar Falcon mares get plenty of polytrack winners, Fly On By is half sister to a horse who was 4/6 on polytrack, including a win at this course. The selection is a strapping individual and has showed enough ability to lead and travel kindly through his races.
The second issue is the selections tendency to travel well for a while, before fading fast as if not bothered with racing. First time blinkers are applied tonight, and if they can sharpen up his attitude, his pedigree for the surface and the weak nature of this race suggests he is no forlorn hope. His trainer does well with three year olds in maidens, indeed they are profitable to back blind returning a profit of +34.15 to the pound stake (15% strike rate). They had a two year old win at 50/1 on Saturday, and I just feel that if the selection is going to show something, it will be tonight. Fitness, surface, track and trip should be no problem and Dane O'Neill will give him every chance to show his worth. He has been quietly backed on the exchanges today, and it is interesting connections persevere with maiden company despite being awarded a lowly mark of OR52.
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One for this afternoon, and we will definitely be betting at Kempton this evening, bets released before 5.15pm.
1.30 Goodwood Zamoyski 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON
Not convinced by Pythagorean here at all, he is a fizzy, keen sort and although his exaggerated action suggests he will handle the ground, it is hard to be sure. Zamoyski made a taking debut in a decent Ascot maiden, held up and allowed to find his way into the race slowly, briefly caught for room, before staying on strongly under hands and heels riding towards the finish. He wasn't subjected to anything like a hard time and that kindness can be rewarded today, with William Buick booked. The ground will be soft at Goodwood and the selection is by Dutch Art, whose progeny have a 20% strike rate on soft ground (too small a sample size on heavy 1/11 9%), and he looks like a galloper more than a quickener, both of which would suggest conditions will suit him. There is a temptation to play each-way here, but we could have done that yesterday with a 3/1 shot in an eight runner race and it doesn't always pan out as intended. I am happy to go win only as I feel the favourite is vulnerable.
Profit & loss: day: +17.00 / month: +10.65 / year: -93.61
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