Tuesday 30th October 2012

A nice winner yesterday with Kuwait Star landing some decent bets at Redcar.

Three at Wolverhampton this evening.

4.40 Wolverhampton Unknown Villain 4pts win @ 8/1 (Stan James, betpack.com, guaranteed, 15/2 generally guaranteed) - WON

Represents Tom Dascombe, whose stable are in good form. Their horses go well here, and Unknown Villain is selected on the basis of his promising debut at Haydock. That debut came on very soft ground over a mile, he cruised into contention in the manner of a decent horse and was travelling really well until the two pole, when he began to fade. He wasn't subjected to too hard a race once his chance had gone, and a break of eleven days would suggest he has taken that race well and is ready to run again. There is some influence on his dam's side which suggests he should go well on the all weather, and his sire gets good horses on pretty much every surface. The step back to seven furlongs looks a positive here and he might have more speed than some of the others who look like three year olds in the making. 15/2+ is very fair, personally I will probably trade off at around evens in running given the fact that others with superior stamina might be challenging late on, but given the right ride and a moderate pace, I think the selection can take the beating unless the unraced favourite is very smart.

5.10 Wolverhampton Bonne Amie 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - Non Runner

A less obvious one from Tom Dascombe's stable. Longer term Strikeline clients will remember we tipped Dascombe's good two filly Adorable Choice when she broke her maiden at Lingfield at 33/1 this time last year. That was her third run, and I pointed out at the time that it was interesting Tom had sent her over for a valuable sales race in Ireland. Although she no showed, it suggested they thought a bit of her.  I find it more than coincidental that Bonne Amie was sent to Deauville on debut for a £10,000 maiden for unraced fillies, with Gerald Mosse booked. The horse who finished behind her that day has since won twice, including the Prix Marcel Boussac (Group 1) on Arc day. It looked a very deep race and it is interesting she was sent to contest it. A poor run at Hamilton last time out is readily excused due to heavy ground, which her sire's progeny tend not to act on. Indeed, their performances improve markedly on artificial surfaces and it makes sense to sent Bonne Amie to Wolverhampton this evening. She has a good draw in stall four and if she is allowed to bowl along, I think she has a decent chance of a bold show despite her odds. I'm not sure the odds on favourite is crying out for a step up in trip and I'm happy to take him on.

7.40 Wolverhampton Parisian Pyramid 4pts win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Ian Williams excels with horses who have had breathing problems, and the application of a tongue tie last time out would suggest the selection has been suffering with such problems. I have seen Ian try this with horses before unsuccessfully, the yard have some top vets working for them and they have numerous ways of treating horses with wind problems. Tongue Tie's don't always work, Tourist for example was heavily backed on his debut for Ian's yard last summer, having had breathing problems, but he resented the tongue tie and didn't show up. They took it off and he went close next time out, afterwards picking up a couple of races before unfortunately suffering a fatal heart attack on course. It is interesting the money has come for Parisian Pyramid, so, with the tongue tie and head gear removed, and Jamie Spencer booked. Diman Waters (who is tempting, but becoming a bit of a cliff horse for me!) will probably be allowed to bowl along today from stall one, and a decent pace could see the selection benefit from a typical Spencer hold up ride. If he is able to put his best foot forward, ratings suggest he is the best handicapped horse in the race and 10/1 is a fair price.

Profit & loss: day: +26.00 / month: +39.70 / year: -6.91

Monday 29th October 2012

One race of interest for Monday. Some great jumping action too which I'll be watching with interest - really looking forward to the National Hunt season getting back into full swing.

3.10 Redcar 

Quan 3pts win @ 9/1 (VC Bet, Paddy Power, William Hill, independents - guaranteed)

Kuwait Star 2pts win @ 14/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, www.betpack.com, independents - guaranteed) - WON

An interesting maiden for older horses, neither of the top two in the market can be described as rock solid and I'm keen to take them on. Make sure to get guaranteed prices here as either selection may drift.

Quan represents a stable who do well with three year olds. His sire gets plenty of runners who handle soft and heavy ground, and it is interesting he runs again in maiden company despite being assigned a mark of OR58. He was not inexpensive, but he has looked a bit of a nutter and a slow learner in three runs to date. However, there was abundant promise in his last run at Pontefract. He pulled really hard in the early stages but ran all the way to the line to finish third (albeit well beaten) behind two half decent horses. His early exertions really took their toll in the closing stages and the distance he was beaten doesn't tell the full story. He steps back to seven furlongs this afternoon and if he is more professional, he can go close. The stable 5lb claimer takes the ride, it was he who got a tune out of the horse last time out and he rates good value for his allowance.

Kuwait Star is by a sire who seems to be favoured by trainer Jason Ward. Resplendent Glory isn't a prolific stallion by any means but he is tending to get progeny who win on soft and heavy ground. Kuwait Star showed promise in a Thirsk maiden, pulling clear of the field to finish fourth behind two OR80+ types, one who has won impressively since, the winner unraced since, and another horse who ran once disappointingly. He had a short break before reappearing at Wolverhampton the other day, where the market gave him no chance. He showed up for a few furlongs before fading and it may be he was out for a gallop. He reappears quickly but the ground will suit him and the booking of Ted Durcan is an interesting one. At 14/1, he looks like a bit of value and the market close to the off will probably tell if he is fancied against his stablemate who happens to be second favourite.

Profit & loss: day: +25.00 / month: +13.70 / year: -32.91

Saturday 27th October 2012

A nice winner this afternoon, two for this evening on a decent Wolverhampton card.

6.15 Wolverhampton McMonagle 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

The presence of Burnhope and Above Standard here would suggest a strong early pace is likely, and that might play into the hands of the quirky McMonagle, who looks fairly handicapped off OR70 and seems to be running in to form. He pulled like a train for most of the race last time out over seven furlongs here, but there is little doubt he acts well on the surface and given his early exertions he done well to finish second behind Sunley Pride. Robert Winston takes the ride again and I would imagine it was his suggestion to drop back to six furlongs. I think that might make the difference, and if the favourite, who looked plotted up last time out, fails to come on for that run, then the selection could be the one to take advantage at double figure odds.

6.45 Wolverhampton Red Senor 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Robert Winston's second and final ride at the track tonight. Red Senor didn't go on much in the summer, but by far his best performance came on polytrack when easily beating Christopher Chua by 2 3/4 lengths at Lingfield in March. His turf form leaves a lot to be desired, but the progeny of his sire Red Clubs have an 18% strike rate at this track, and I think he may have been put away with a winter campaign in mind. It is also of interest that he has not been gelded. He is well drawn in stall five, and the race definitely looks like one he can win if turning up fit and ready to go.

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Two races of interest for Saturday afternoon. We may have an additional evening bet, details will be released at 5.00pm either way.

2.30 Doncaster

Captain Dunne 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, brucebetting.com, other independents - all pay 1/4 5 places guaranteed - or take SP with Skybet)

Barnet Fair 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Skybet, 1/4 5 places, 20/1 Bet 365 1/4 5 places guaranteed, or take guaranteed prices with bookies paying 5 places) - Non Runner

A really interesting sprint and with bookmakers clamouring for business by offering 5 places each-way, it makes sense to play each-way. Bet 365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Bruce Betting and many independent bookmakers offer the five places and I've indicated above the best ways of placing your bets.

We witnessed the re-education of Captain Dunne at York last time when he was held up, differing to his usual style of front running. He came home really strongly to take second place behind Pearl Blue, and I would suggest connections will try the same tactics this afternoon. He has run some admirable races at Doncaster down the years, beaten 1 1/4 lengths by Prohibit in a listed race and 3/22 in the Portland leading two furlongs out. Statistics show that it is harder to be in the lead two furlongs from home and win at Doncaster than any other track in the U.K., so you have to think those decent runs were despite the track and not because he has been suited by it. The recent change in tactics is the key here, drawn in stall 17 he is close to pace horses like Judge N Jury (how many times have we mentioned him in this context this season!), Move In Time, and Moorehouse Lad so he should get a good tow into the race. Off a handicap mark of OR95 I would expect him to finish strongly and hopefully get up close home.

Barnet Fair has improved all season and I think his lack of popularity in the markets here is down to a perception that he won't go on soft ground. I find sometimes that unless ground is very extreme, it can be particular to a track and if a horse goes at the track once, he can sometimes get away with ground he wouldn't normally act on at that course again. The selection ran a hell of a race in last year's Portland, but was all over the track and never landed a blow. His fourth in this year's race came when he got a really poor ride, far too prominent with little cover, and he faded to finish fourth. He is all speed and if Robbie Fitzpatrick can get a similar tow into the race to Captain Dunne (drawn next door in stall 16) then I think he has the ability to cause a minor shock. The stable are in form again and their horses are routinely underbet.

2.45 Newbury

Hazel Lavery 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 11/1 William Hill, Boylesports guaranteed) - WON

Khione 1pt each-way @ 28/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, betpack.com, Coral - all pay 1/4 odds 3 places)

A really interesting Group 3 which has been won by the fairer sex three times in the last ten runnings. Many of these horses seem to come into this race as an afterthought, ie. it is not the focal point of their seasons, and it is hard to win a Group 3 contest on heavy ground unless 100% ready. For that reason I'm happy to take on some of the name horses in the line up and am siding with two fillies who I think have excellent chances of progressing and handling the prevailing ground conditions. 1/4 odds are paid each-way by numerous bookmakers, I would suggest betting with them.

Hazel Lavery has apparently had this race as her target since Doncaster last time out. She looks to be improving with each run and is by Excellent Art, whose progeny have an awesome 22% strike rate on heavy ground. The weight allowances she receives as a three year old will be invaluable and it is interesting connections are keen to take on Hawaafez again. Eddie Ahern takes the ride.

Khione represents Luca Cumani who trained the fourth in the race last year. She would be a surprise winner but she looks all about stamina and I have little doubt that heavy ground will see her improve. Her trainer does not tilt at windmills and, although there can be a temptation to enter these fillies in the hope of grabbing some black type, this horse still looks to be progressive and is probably overpriced given that she is unexposed in these conditions. We'll have a smaller bet at the prices.

Profit & loss: day: +22.50 / month: -11.30 / year: -57.91

Friday 26th October 2012

One selection for Friday evening.

7.10 Wolverhampton Hectors Chance 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Sporting Bet, Blue Square, 888 Sport, 33/1 William Hill, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)

I had considered leaving this card alone, but I can't resist a very small each-way interest on Hectors Chance at the prices.

With every bet, you have to ask yourself why a horse is the price it is, what price it should be, and ask yourself "what do I know about the horse that has not been factored into the odds"? I made Hectors Chance a 16/1 shot on my tissue here, but I have a fair idea why 40/1 is available (and bigger on the exchanges) looking at his form figures.

The selection has achieved precisely nothing since running away with an eleven furlong handicap at Kempton in May. However, Heather Main's string were woefully out of form all summer, and between June 12th and the latter weeks of September they had no winners - most of their horses performing abysmally. The selection has had two recent runs on turf, but he has never looked any good on the surface and he looks like a horse much better suited to artificial surfaces. He has some decent form to his name up to a mile and a half, and if you isolate his record over middle distances on the surface it reads 312198, with the last two runs coming in June and July when the stable were out of form. The poor recent form also means he looks quite well handicapped off a mark of OR68.

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One race of interest for this afternoon, a possible evening bet, details at 5.00pm either way.

3.15 Doncaster

Secret Witness 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Gatepost 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Secret Witness handed down a beating to his better fancied stablemate Prodigality in the Portland handicap, running on strongly at the finish giving him a stone in weight in the process. The selection only has to give him 9lb today, and I am happy to forget his runs at Newbury and Ascot because I don't think those tracks suit him. The selection's best performances have come at Doncaster and York, and added to that he has a potentially excellent draw in stall 20 this afternoon. High draws are often favoured on this sort of ground, and with plenty of pace drawn around there, not least Fitz Flyer on the rail, and the stalls on the stands side, Tom Queally might get a nice tow into the race. The selection is top weight, but the price looks too big to ignore.

Gatepost is selected for the Fahey / Hanagan team, they have had horses run well in this contest before and the selection now looks well handicapped off a mark of OR92. Soft ground, rather than heavy, will suit him perfectly in my opinion and the run in the Ayr Silver Cup, if taken on merit, looks decent in the context of this race. I still have one or two question marks about him, but at a double figure price, he merits backing to small stakes as the type of horse who could pop up if everything goes his way.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -33.80 / year: -80.41

Thursday 25th October 2012

You might say we were unlucky with Good Authority last night, who was the best horse in the race but done by the lack of pace, however I was aware of the pace issue and that has to be factored in. I did think Kakatosi from stall 1 was a model to set good fractions but he did not, there was no other front runner and we suffered - had he gone on, we probably would have won. In the event, an excellent ride from the best jockey in the race Ryan Moore was what won it - in the absence of a genuine pace the race was decided by factors other than the horses ability.

We may have an evening bet, details either way at 5.00pm.

1.30 Southwell No Dominion 5pts win @ 3/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

I was extremely taken by the fibresand debut of No Dominion three weeks ago, and I think he can become one of the stars of the winter season if he continues to progress. He travelled extremely well on the surface, looking a natural on it, and probably only idled to let Sehnsucht get close to him before pulling away fairly handily in the end. 3/1 this morning was a gift, I expect him to win if he reproduces that form, and I think he will end up a bit better than a OR61 rated handicapper in time. Graham Lee takes the ride again.

2.00 Southwell Menadati 4pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Represents a trainer who does well at Southwell. The selection is U.S.A. bred, which means I'm happy to take the chance he acts on the surface - he has probably been here for a gallop, and U.S.A. bred horses are profitable to back blind on their first visit to the course. The selection apparently had kidney problems over the past year and following treatment, was brought back gradually and punted last time out when he landed odds of 7/1 at Chepstow. I was impressed with the manner in which he ran all the way to the line that day and I think there is scope for improvement off OR61. He looks to be drawn quite well in stall 4, and I would hope a good early position off the rail and out of the kickback will see him go close to winning.

Profit & loss: day: +11.00 / month: -24.80 / year: -71.41

Wednesday 24th October 2012

Just one for this evening.

8.50 Kempton Good Authority 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

A typically competitive 0-85 handicap for the track. Take Cover has never raced on the surface, Chapter And Verse doesn't look a horse to back at short odds, I'm not sure Shahzan is looking for a step up to seven furlongs, not sure Numerical is ready or well enough handicapped. Added to that, Kakatosi is well held by Good Authority on a line through Konstantin. Good Authority looks a very good price here for a progressive five year old. The race he won at Leicester on his penultimate start looks like very decent form and has been franked numerous times. Konstantin won next time out. Muarrab won a decent Newbury handicap next time out. Amazing Amoray won impressively next time out. Light From Mars won two runs later and followed up with a narrow defeat. Frozen Over (11th) beat Rossetti (8th) next time out. It really does look like strong handicap form, and although Good Authority is now 7lb higher, he has a record of 2 wins and 3 places from 7 runs on the all weather and  that form suggests he can better that record. He is a course and distance winner, and if his regular pilot Tom McLaughlin can negotiate a passage from a wide draw in stall 11, I think he is good enough to win again. Strike off the last run at Salisbury on good to soft over six furlongs, it is not his trip, and he has never done anything on ground with soft in the description. Anything 14/1 or better is too big and should be taken.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -35.80 / year: -82.41

Tuesday 23rd October 2012

Two for this afternoon.

2.30 Lingfield Gold Roll 5pts win @ 11/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Didn't look entirely comfortable on turf when last seen and has promised more in his races than he has been able to deliver at the business end. His stable are in much better form now than they were in high summer when Gold Roll was last out, and the switch to all weather surfaces could be the making of him. His sire's progeny have an 18% strike rate at this track, and in an ordinary maiden, he looks good value at 11/2.

4.30 Lingfield Dorothys Dancing 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Gary Moore has his sprinters in decent form and, although she returns after a summer break, Dorothys Dancing appeals as still progressive and unexposed off a mark of OR67. She knows how to win, and the fact that she has won fresh in the past is a bonus. Her rivals today look mostly exposed and / or difficult to win with, and with her jockey Fergus Sweeney riding well of late she is selected to make a winning start to what may be a fruitful winter campaign.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -30.80 / year: -77.41

Monday 22nd October 2012

Just one for Monday.

3.00 Windsor Dumbarton Rock 5pts win @ 3/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A decent little nursery, but Dumbarton Rock sticks out for me as a scopey individual who seems to be improving gradually with each run, is in good form, and runs off a fair mark of OR69. He handles this sort of ground and the booking of Silvestre De Sousa would suggest connections mean business today. He pulled well clear with Evoke at Yarmouth last time out, and that form was given some substance with the third winning at a big price the other day. First time blinkers are applied and I can recall a few occasions in recent years when they have worked the oracle on progeny of Kyllachy. 3/1 is short enough for us, but I make him closer to 2/1 and on that basis, we will support him to get our week off to a decent start.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -20.80 / year: -67.41

Saturday 20th October 2012

Two for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet, details before 5.00pm. An absolutely cracking day's racing and I hope the brilliant Frankel can go out on a high by winning the Champion Stakes impressively.

1.45 Ascot Aiken 5pts win @ 13/2 (Boylesports, Stan James, www.betpack.com, guaranteed, 6/1 generally, get guaranteed)

A real Ascot horse who goes well on this ground, and seems to have been prepared specifically for this race by his trainer, who has had a fantastic season. The selection has gradually been stepping up in trip, and with the likelihood of a slow pace today he would appear to be the horse with the best turn of foot if the race is run at a moderate tempo. I don't think there are any superstars in here, everything looks beatable, and I think the horses involved in the finish of the Ascot Gold Cup had a very hard race which may have left its mark. 6/1+ was always too big and Aiken has been well supported all morning, justifying yesterday's price alert.

2.20 Ascot Restidargent 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Paddy Power, 4places guaranteed, or take 9/1 generally guaranteed)

A pretty simple pick, third in a strong renewal of the Golden Jubilee, and a horse who acts really well on slow ground. 8/1+ looks very fair and I am not so sure Society Rock will reverse the placings despite his slow start in June. I think he might want the ground quicker, and I can't have Wizz Kid as I'm a great believer in Ascot horses for the Ascot course and I don't think he is as effective here as elsewhere. Paddy Power offer 4 places each-way on this race and I think it's an excellent offer, well worth taking their 8/1.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -15.80 / year: -62.41

Friday 19th October 2012

We will not have any additional bets for Friday afternoon, but we may have an evening bet, details before 5.00pm either way.

2.10 Cheltenham

Village Vic 3pts win @ 5/1 (Paddy Power, Stan James, www.betpack.com, William Hill, independents, guaranteed)

The Jugopolist 2pts win @ 9/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

Great to be back at the home of jumps racing, and the season starts here. Heady days at the festival in March are a long way off yet, but have no doubt the journey there will be an exciting one.

Stamina is required to win this event, particularly when there is a bit of cut in the ground, and jumping is all important too. I am keen to take The New One on, because I don't think he looked a natural hurdler at Plumpton and this looks a decent contest. Paul Nicholls usually has a representative here, but he tends not to win it and whatever he enters usually comes on for the run. It is unusual to see Philip Hobbs with a runner, and his Village Vic is worthy of support at five times the price of the favourite. He was very good in bumpers but is bred to be a staying hurdler / chaser, he will not want for stamina and although he too is likely to come on for the run, Hobbs team illustrated their decent fettle with the victory of Fingal Bay last weekend and with Richard Johnson in such good form, he is selected.

Tony McCoy rides The Jugopolist for Rebecca Curtis, who had the third in this contest last year. Rebecca tends to have her string ready early, and this horse cruised home in a Novice at Uttoxeter twelve days ago. Stamina looks assured, and I get the impression the trainer would like to make an impact on races like this sooner rather than later, this is likely to have been the plan for a while. I have stamina reservations about Special Account and the rest look a little exposed. Although I would not rule out a surprise, I cannot see where it would be likely to come from, and I am happy to support the above pair at nice prices.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -5.80 / year: -52.41

Thursday 18th October 2012

A nice 10/1 winner this afternoon, Drawnfromthepast was well supported on course and won handy. Mark Johnston's 2yo ran ok but was a bit too green and is perhaps a 3yo project.

One for tonight.

9.00 Kempton Lily Potts 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill, or take 9/1 1/4 odds with www.betbyrne.comguaranteed, or 9/1 generally guaranteed - this may drift on course so make sure of a guaranteed price)

Not a very good race at all, even for a 0-60, but Chris Down's horses tend to go well at Kempton and Lily Potts has twice run well at this track, suggesting she handles the surface well. She is moderate, but she has been placed well here with horses of similar or lesser ability, and I think she is good each-way value against the favourite given a couple of possible factors which could see her improve. She is on a fair mark of OR58, and two recent runs at Bath yielded two half decent performances, despite the fact that she never looked entirely comfortable on the undulating track. The race last time was a class 5 event and she was held up off an absolute crawl, in the circumstances she asserted herself well and the 7 1/4 lengths she was beaten does not tell the whole story. I expect Kempton to suit better and it is also of interest that her best performance came on October 22nd last year, when she posted an RPR of 70 at Newbury on her second start. I wouldn't take rating too literally (or the proximity to Shirocco Star!), but these fillies can often come to hand at the same time of year and with two recent runs behind her, she should be 100% fit and ready this evening. Ideally I'd like to see a strong pace tonight to sort out the dead wood and non stayers. Lily Potts is ridden by Jemma Marshall who has a notably better record on the all weather than turf, and has ridden 5 winners at this track. She claims 5lb off the fillies' back and at 9/1 or better, her mount is worthy of support.

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A nice winner last night at Kempton.

Two for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet, details either way before 5.15pm.

2.00 Wolverhampton Drawnfromthepast 4pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, guaranteed) - WON

Represents Jamie Osborne whose sprinters are in good form. Jamie Spencer is an eye catching booking for this horse who drops back to five furlongs, a trip he has won over before off higher marks than this. He needs holding up and a strong pace to run at, indeed that also means he needs things to drop right for him and the gaps to come at the right time. Probably not an each-way proposition as such, but he is clear on speed figures at the track and this looks winnable from his current mark for a horse of his ability.

3.00 Wolverhampton Train Hard 5pts win @ 4/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, William Hill, independents, guaranteed)

Made a nice debut in a decent maiden at Nottingham, savvy enough on his debut to take the lead and stay there until the two pole. He may not have appreciated the soft ground, but either way it looked a nice performance and there is little doubt he will improve for the run. Mark Johnston tends to start mopping up all weather maidens right about now, and the selection is by Rail Link, whose progeny are doing well on the all weather, out of a mare who ran for the Johnstons and won twice on polytrack and once on fibresand. Stall two and the evidence of the first run suggests Joe will be trying to make all here, I think he will be good enough to hold them off down the straight and 4/1 looks fair.

Profit & loss: day: +30.00 / month: -0.80 / year: -47.41

Wednesday 17th October 2012

I've stated on a couple of occasions that I don't like to go on about jockeys etc., because a jockey's ability must be factored into any bet one has. Saying that. Tadhg O'Shea's ride on Ladweb earlier looked really bad, he actually looked imbalanced on the horse at one point and failed to ask the horse to take a clear gap which could have won the race for him in the final furlong, instead pulling the reins and settling for "unplaced" in the manner of a jockey going nowhere. It is unsurprising he has lost the Maktoum job and one wonders if there are problems away from the track.

The 2yo wasn't good enough, but was hardly helped by Michael Hills, whose seemed to be supping a mental cocktail in Barbados following his retirement in a few weeks, rather than on the job. I am surprised he did not make use of a decent draw and given that connections seemed to have money down (that money was surely not all Strikeline cash?) it seems unusual. We were correct about the price being plain wrong, a pity the horse could not deliver.

One for this evening.

6.10 Kempton Ivestar 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

0/10 on the all weather but while that explains the price, it does not tell the full story. The selection has run respectably on the surface but is clearly hard to train because he is very lightly raced for a seven year old. He burst into life last time out with a very easy win over the minimum and although this is a different surface, it is a poor race and if he can simply repeat that performance he should win here. Of course horses are not robots, but he is not that long with Mick Easterby, and it is just possible new connections have found the key to him. He carries a penalty this evening but has a reasonable draw and a good jockey booked. 5/1 is fair.

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Foursquare Funtime covered the stake having run into a place yesterday, Diman Waters was disappointing (far too keen) but it was a bit of a kick in the teeth that his stablemate Song Of Parkes won on the same card at 18/1, on her second ever polytrack run - a similar angle in to what we were looking at with our selection.

Two for this afternoon and a possible evening bet, details either way before 5.00pm.

3.35 Lingfield Short Squeeze 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (www.brucebetting.com, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed)

Made a really eye catching debut in a very strong Newmarket maiden won by Code Of Honour which I've already referred to, and the Racing Post spotlight writer got it very wrong when he suggested a no show. In fact, the selection was drawn 17 and raced on a part of the track that was clearly not favoured. Even so, he stayed on the bridle a lot longer than most of his rivals, which included horses who have shown themselves to be OR80+ types based on their next runs, and he only faded late on when his exertions had told including the fact that he was a bit keen. The stable's juveniles have improved second time out all year and Michael Hills turns up for the one ride. Sire Cape Cross's progeny go well on the all weather, and the dams side of the pedigree includes a couple of decent all weather performers. He is a smashing looking colt and his trainer seems to like him too:

"A lot of the yards bigger 2 year olds are beginning to come to hand and I am excited about getting the opportunities to run them in the coming weeks and months.  Racing Post filly Born To Run is beginning to hit her straps as is Incendiary's sister Xerxes.  Two of the best looking 2 year olds who will be even more gorgeous next year are Audacia and Short Squeeze and now that we are into August they are really filling their frames and all of us here with excitement at what they may become the Autumn and indeed next year."

He is drawn in stall four and I pretty much knew the price here was all wrong, he has been well backed and we have a decent bet on our hands, win or lose.

3.45 Nottingham Ladweb 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed)

A run of the mill maiden. I must say I didn't fancy the outsider Shatin Secret at all, I think his sire's progeny are better on fast ground admittedly from limited early evidence, and I am surprised he has been nibbled - it perhaps suggests punters expect improvement second time out and with the booking of the excellent Danny Tudhope some have latched on - because nothing else looks very solid. Rangooned was ultimately well beaten in a very average looking contest last time out despite finishing second, and Attenshun is a U.S.A. bred who may not go on this soft ground.

Ladweb represents John Gallagher, who does well with this type of horse and sent an unexposed filly, Heartsong, up to Nottingham earlier this year to win on soft ground, which she goes well on. The selection ran really well at Yarmouth last time out on heavy, but still looked very green and was in front far too soon for my liking. He probably got tired too, but a more considerate ride this afternoon might pay dividends and it is a bonus that he is proven in the conditions. Most of the others are not, on that basis and with 1/4 odds paid I'#ve decided to ploy each-way.

Profit & loss: day: +15.00 / month: -30.80 / year: -77.41

Tuesday 16th October 2012

A nice winner yesterday with Noble Gift seeing it out strongly on the ground. Profitable Mondays always seem to make the rest of the week easier.

Two selections for today. 

2.40 Leicester Foursquare Funtime 2pts each-way AND 1pt win 7/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, guaranteed, 13/2 VC Bet, Paddy Power, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Represents Reg Hollinshead, whose stable have a 14% strike rate in sellers over the course of the last five seasons, returning an l.s.p. of +18.23. The selection has won on soft ground already this year, but the stable haven't been in the best of form in 2012 and it would suggest to me the horse has done well to pick up a race. Hollinshead's team have hit their best form of the year in recent weeks, however, and I would expect a good run from the selection this afternoon, particularly given that he ran well over a mile here on his last visit to the track. He seems to go well after a few weeks break, and he is reunited today with a jockey whose record on him reads 2,1. I had him priced up as a 9/2 shot, and with conditions in his favour he makes appeal at 13/2+.

7.20 Wolverhampton Diman Waters 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, Paddy Power, guaranteed, 22/1 VC Bet guaranteed)

A really interesting one here, and a decent sized bet considering the price would hint that I've been waiting for this horse for a while. Diman Waters makes his debut on the all weather this evening, for a stable who recently sent out Doctor Parkes at the track to make a successful all weather debut aged 6 on his 34th start. Diman Waters starts his 33rd race tonight at the age of five, he is a strapping big horse whom I have always thought would relish artificial surfaces, but who has failed to make a real impact on turf this season bar one race at Haydock on form ground. He doesn't really act on soft ground, which explains his latest flop, and Chester's tight track and a wide draw really wouldn't have suited the time before. He ran well at Redcar before that, but I've been itching for connections to try something different with him, and they finally do tonight. This is a competitive sprint, but if the selection takes to the surface he looks very well handicapped off OR72. He is an uncomplicated ride, and from stall 5 Kelly Harrison should probably keep it simple, tracking Red Cape and Amoure Medici before taking her chance in the home straight. I make the selection much shorter than 25/1, so I'm happy to have a decent each-way investment at the prices.

Profit & loss: day: -5.40 / month: -45.80 / year: -92.41

Monday 15th October 2012

Just one selection for Monday.

1.50 Salisbury Noble Gift 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 7/1 (Boylesports, Sporting Bet, www.brucebetting.com, 6/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

Noble Gift represents a stable with a 13% strike rate with juveniles at Salisbury, returning an l.s.p. of +26.50 over the last five seasons. They have not had a vintage year, but there has certainly been an upturn of fortunes in the past month and the selection can continue their decent form in this weak looking maiden. Noble Gift made his debut in Code Of Honour's Newbury maiden, which is working out quite well. He travelled well but flashed his tail when asked to quicken and veered left under pressure, indicating he was perhaps feeling the ground which was quite firm. His action would suggest improvement will be likely with softer conditions prevailing this afternoon, and with nine runners he looks worth backing each-way. The booking of William Buick is the icing on the cake here and 6/1+ would seem a point or two too big.

Profit & loss: day: +20.40 / month: -40.40 / year: -87.01

Sunday 14th October 2012

A terrible week for us, I will write a proper review tomorrow but we do have an interest at Goodwood:

2.35 Goodwood Hornboy 4pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Related to the useful Racy among others and didn't handle the track well at Newmarket first time out. Noseda's have been coming on for the run and Buick takes the ride here at a course he judges the pace well at. Has been supported early but still looks a good price as I don't think the newcomers look up to much and the Hannon trained fav looks vulnerable to me.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: -60.80 / year: -107.41

Saturday 13th October 2012

Two bets for this afternoon.

2.20 Newmarket 

Heavy Metal 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Parliament Square 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Adam Kirby has oddly deserted Reckless Abandon here, but I don't think Moohaajim deserves to be joint favourite on his form and I'm keen to take them on with two at prices. Heavy Metal represents a stable whose horses can bounce back from disappointments, and the fact that he runs here would suggest Mark Johnston feels there were reasons for that defeat. I expect him to try and make all on the rail and at the prices, I am very keen to have him onside. Parliament Square got close to Reckless Abandon at Deauville and he looks overpriced at 16/1. The O'Brien team are known to get winners with apparent second and third strings on this day and I expected him to be shorter.

3.00 Chepstow Poungach 5pts win @ 7/4 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I would have made Poungach joint favourite with Fingal Bay here and that more or less explains the bet. Unless the Bowen horse is a natural over fences I make it between the two, and I really liked the selection over hurdles, I expect him to prove better again over fences and I think the stable's horses are more forward than has been the case in recent years. Looks good value despite the short price.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -56.80 / year: -103.41

Friday 12th October 2012

Two for Friday, no evening bets:

2.00 York Bond Club 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed)

Bond Club represents an in form trainer who does well with sprinters on soft ground (trains Jamaican Bolt, also had the winner of the race Breezolini finished second in yesterday at Ayr). Most winners of this contest have at least three runs behind them and the selection opened his account on his fourth start at Haydock last time out. The ground was heavy that day and he showed a really good attitude to win, running straight and true to the line. The horse he beat has since won at Ayr, while the third looks reasonably promising, and I think his achievement in winning may have been underestimated given the allotted handicap mark of OR72. A good lightweight jockey has been booked in James Sullivan, and he seems to be drawn around the pace. The 34mm of rain that fell at York overnight will do his chances no harm, he should handle the conditions better than most and he looks decent value at 12/1+.

3.40 York Accelerant 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Accelerant was sent off just 7/2 on his debut at Beverley last time, but was not really given a hard time once he met traffic problems and his chance of winning had gone. He travelled well for quite a way but didn't seem to be in love with the track. The open spaces of York might just suit him better and it is interesting he is by a Pivotal mare. Her one progeny has shown his best form on soft ground and I would suspect Accelerant will be suited by today's ground at York given the action he displays. The stable's juveniles have tended to come on plenty for their first run this year and, with this looking only an average maiden, he rates the value at the prices.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -47.80 / year: -94.41

Thursday 11th October 2012

Two selections for this afternoon and a possible evening bet to 

1pt each-way double on today's selections.

3.40 Ayr Breezolini 4pts win @ 8/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, 15/2 Paddy Power, independents, guaranteed)

Since trasferring to the Harker stable this year, Breezolini has been given the chance to run on soft and heavy ground and has shown herself to act very well on it. She looks progressive on a slow surface and although she is sometimes slowly away, she looks unexposed and is my idea of the winner here. She missed the kick last time at Hamilton but stayed on really well in the closing stages without being given anything like a hard time. The horses who beat her both have form in better grades and today's contest looks more winnable. It looks a decent piece of placement by the trainer and the booking of Robert Winston, who rode Jamaican Bolt to land a course and distance gamble for us a couple of weeks ago, is a bonus - he rides Ayr really well.

5.10 Ayr Ebony Clarets 4pts win @ 13/2 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)

Linda Perrett's stable have returned to form with a vengeance in recent weeks and Ebony Clarets looks a standout in this 0-70. She acts on heavy ground, and her third of nine in a three year old handicap here came in a better race than this. She followed it up with a close second at Musselburgh behind a progressive horse of Alan Swinbanks, and back against moderate opposition today she should go close off just one pound higher. Freddy Tylicki takes the ride and the price looks fair.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -38.80 / year: -85.41

Wednesday 10th October 2012

Two really interesting maidens at Kempton tonight.

Over the course of the next month or two, we will have interests in many two year old maidens, on the all weather in particular. On occasion, we will have two interests in the one race and in that case I usually prefer a win only approach because generally when we pick to in this type of race, they are boom or bust type selections and it is hard to know sometimes if they are even trying to win. Lexington Place would be an example yesterday, he represents gambling connections and was well backed early but drifted markedly before the off, and was never put in the race. I find maidens very profitable over time (our results back that up) and we'll get a few big priced winners from them at this time of year, along with a few who won't have tried or don't improve as anticipated.

6.30 Kempton 

Countryman 3pts win @ 8/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, guaranteed, 15/2 VC Bet, indepentents, guaranteed)

Miss Mocca 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Countryman is a son of Pastoral Pursuits whose progeny have an 18% strike rate here. Trainer Hughie Morrison's juveniles tend to improve for a run (14% second time out record) and the selection looked quite unfit for his debut run at Newbury. He didn't show a whole lot but looked a sizeable colt and perhaps didn't enjoy the good ground. Polytrack will suit him better and the way he blew up having travelled well, staying on well again close home, would suggest improvement is very likely from a fitness point of view this evening. The favourite here showed one or two signs of temperament first time out (response wasn't great under pressure) and although Beckett's horses also improve and do really well here, I think there are enough negatives (his price included) to take him on.

Miss Mocca represents a trainer who does well here. She receives 7lb to 10lb off the colts and geldings here, taking into account the claim of the excellent Raul Da Silva, and there might be more improvement in her than the other filly Living The Life at this stage. She is by Bahamian Bounty out of a Sri Pekan mare, and I think polytrack will suit her much better than the heavy ground she encountered at Carlisle second time out - I think she was made too much use of that day too and I can't see how, having finished a gallant fourth, she only received a rating of RPR52  for her effort. I think she can improve here and again, if the favourite turns out not to be all that she would have every chance.

7.00 Kempton 

Exit Clause 3pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Kastini 2pts win @ 33/1 (www.brucebetting.com, Boylesports, William Hill, betrogers.com, betbyrne.com, other independents, all guaranteed)

A really interesting contest. I can't see how the favourite is so short based on her debut run and I'm keen to take her on, with the change of surface not necessarily a positive.

Exit Clause represents a sire I know nothing about, but the dam was a 7f polytrack winner and his debut here was pleasing. He was slowly away, but travelled well making a sweeping outside move on the bend, still going ok in the home straight before being tapped for toe, staying on quite well towards the finish having hung right and been corrected by his jockey, who gave him a nice educational ride. The step up in trip should suit ok, and although the stable are not renowned for their prowess with 2yos, they have taken the trouble to book the excellent Martin Harley, and if there is fitness to work on their colt might just be good enough to cause a surprise.

Denis Coakley's string are always to be feared at Kempton and he is shrewd with his money too. Kastini is by a sire who does well here and he showed promise on his debut here having been held up with little chance of getting involved. It was unusual that, at odds of 150/1 in a very strong Newbury maiden last time, he was sent on and travelled well with the leaders before fading. His jockey was at pains to ride him tenderly and I basically think he was hidden (watch the replay). Lo and behold, the money has come today and if they decide to make all from stall one, he might not get caught. 33/1 was always too big.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -28.80 / year: -75.41

Tuesday 9th October 2012

Two selections at Catterick this afternoon.

1pt each-way double on today's selections - take 8/1 and 11/2 guaranteed with Totesport, Boylesports or Betfred)

2.00 Catterick Just Paul 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Just a moderate nursery but there is a clear case to be made for Just Paul, who ran well in a better race over seven furlongs here last time out. He was 3lb out of the handicap that day and very keen over the trip, with his young jockey having to restrain him in rear off a muddling pace. He stayed on well to claim third late on, and although well beaten by two OR80+ types, he was unsuited to the way the race developed, probably raced on the wrong part of the track, and was out of the weights. He runs in a lesser contest today off his correct mark of OR63, and with a reasonable 7lb claimer reuniting with him for the ride, he looks too big a price at 8/1. The opposition don't look great and unless stall ten presents problems, he should go close to winning.

3.00 Catterick Lexington Place 4pts win @ 11/2 (Totesport, Boyesports, Betfred, Independents, guaranteed)

Interesting that shrewd betting connections have backed this one against the stable's apparent number one, who is not guaranteed to act on the ground and has been off for thirty days, which is on the outer echelons of what I like in s short priced two year old. The favourite also takes this engagement up instead of a more difficult one at York in a few days time which is not necessarily a good sign in my opinion. Lexington Place made a nice debut but was very keen early, he ran right to the line but might be better suited to having more use made of him today over a shorter trip. The ground should be no problem and although 7/1+ was available earlier, the price still looks fair and it is always heartening to see money come when Middleham Park's horses are concerned. Laura Barry is good value for her 7lb claim.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -18.80 / year: -65.41

Sunday 7th October 2012

One bet for Sunday, a maximum bet in the Prix de L'Arc De Triomphe.

Prix de L'Arc De Triomphe - Great Heavens 5pts each-way @ 9/1 (Maximum Bet - Paddy Power, Bet 365, 1/4 odds 4 places, or take 8/1 VC Bet 1/4 odds 4 places - make sure to get 1/4 odds 4 places - many independents also have this offer.)

Can't remotely have Camelot here with soft ground and an extremely gruelling St Ledger run only a few weeks previous most likely having left its mark on him. This race tends to be dictated by the draw and it is pretty much a case of the lower the better. Great Heavens is drawn in stall seven which is fine, and the peerless William Buick will ride her - he gets things spot on tactically more often than not and I hope he can get a good early position here. The filly has improved consistently as the year has gone on, and she gets ideal conditions in the Arc with the ground now described as heavy. Her collateral form doesn't stack up incredibly well, but she could only beat what was put in front of her and the manner of victory has been impressive all year. The most interesting thing of all is that shrewd connections have supplemented her for the race at a cost of €100,000. Clearly John Gosden has a good line on this Arc form through Danedream, (even though that horse no longer runs) who short headed Nathaniel in the King George. The last time we backed a Gosden supplementary entry was in the 2010 King George, when we took the hint and backed Nathaniel to maximum stakes each-way when he won it as a three year old. Obviously the trainer will know how Great Heavens measures up to Nathaniel and the filly simply has to be of interest now that connections have taken the trouble to enter her, with conditions in her favour. She is a decent each-way price and we will have a maximum stakes each-way bet.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -8.80 / year: -55.41

Saturday 6th October 2012

Two selections for this afternoon and a maximum bet for tomorrow.

2.30 Ascot Camborne 5pts win @ 4/1 (brucebetting.com, Bet 365, William Hill, Independents, get guaranteed)

Won really well at the Royal meeting here and had performed with credit all year. He was only slightly below par when seventh in the Ebor and it strikes me he might just be an Ascot specialist. The progeny of Doyen revel in soft ground over long distances and I expect Camborne to go very close today.

3.35 Ascot Field Of Dream 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Rock Solid Ascot form on this straight course, and with plenty of pace on the cards here the selection's hold up style should be seen to best effect. I think he is better than the bare result of his last run and I expect him to pick up at least one or two more valuable handicaps at the course. Conditions look ideal today and if he gets away with the ground, I think he has the winning of this. 12/1 is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: +1.20 / year: -45.41

Friday 5th October 2012

Two selections for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet released before 5.15pm.

12.30 Yarmouth Duroble Man 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Represents Roger Varian whose stable are in good form. They had a fairly well supported second time two year old winner for this jockey at Kempton the other day and Duroble Man's pedigree suggests he will enjoy the softer ground at Yarmouth today so I expect an improved performance. He was also keen first time out and there is speed on the dams side of his pedigree so the step back to seven furlongs should be in his favour despite the stamina index 10.7 of his sire Manduro. This does look a hot maiden but neither of the newcomers have been particularly well supported and there is a good chance the favourite is no longer progressive. 12/1+ looks very fair each-way.

5.15 Ascot Signor Sassi 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, independents, guaranteed, 10/1 generally)

Only had a piece of work when easily beating Saloomy at Yarmouth last time and with some soft ground influence on the dams side of the pedigree, and his sire Acclamation doing well with runners on all types of ground, the selection, he should enjoy prevailing conditions at Ascot today. He won despite the ground at Yarmouth in my view and the market seems to have over looked that he runs off OR83 today despite posting an RPR of 91 when winning, leaving him around 8lb well in with the handicapper. He runs with a featherweight on his back of 8-3 and to my mind looks the best handicapped of these despite that not being my main concern in sprints. His run style looks well suited to Ascot (tends to favour strong travelling hold up types) and he looks around three points overpriced in my view - I make him more like a 7/1 shot here. 

Profit & loss: day: -4.20 / month: +10.20 / year: -36.41

Thursday 4th October 2012

Two selections for this afternoon, small chance of an evening bet at Wolverhampton - details either way before 5.00pm.

4.10 Warwick Harwoods Star 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Represents a stable in pretty decent nick right now who tend to get two year old winners around this time of the year. The selection made his debut in a decent Newbury maiden twelve days ago and showed himself to be a fine big colt, scopey with a real rounded action typical of a son of Danehill Dancer out of a Sadler's Wells mare. Harwoods Star is actually bred to be quite precocious, half sister Conniption won first time out at Newbury on soft ground, while Hongkong Dancer hit RPR's of 80+ on his second and third starts as a two year old, once on soft ground. Warwick is soft today and I expect a decent level of improvement from his debut as a result - the ground was quite fast at Newbury and it would not have suited, he wasn't really asked to do too much. He travelled ok but didn't really quicken, allowed to come home in his own time on the wrong side of the track. Jim Crowley takes the ride today and the stable are 4/26 at Warwick in recent years, improving to 2/9 29% +32.00 to level stakes with two year olds. 12/1 looks a very decent each-way price.

6.00 Southwell Hoonose 1pt each-way And 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I was quite surprised given the Eddery team's 18% strike rate at this track and their recent return to form that Hoonose was not priced up around half these odds (I make him around 12/1 or 14/1). The selection made his fibresand debut over five furlongs on his penultimate run and was completely outpaced over five furlongs. However, he made up fully eight to ten lengths on the horse who eventually beat him a short head into sixth. We can't know the value of that performance without sectional timing and also without the camera picking up his fast finish, but the Racing Post reader listed his performance as "promising" and I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt that he was simply outpaced but acted well on the surface given his price. He returns to the track today over a mile, with a lowly rating, out of the handicap but with a decent draw and good improving 7lb claimer on his back. None of these look bombproof, and there is every chance he can run into a place or better if fibresand and a mile trip bring out the best in him.

Profit & loss: day: -1.20 / month: +14.40 / year: -32.21

Wednesday 3rd October 2012

A nice winner this afternoon.

Two for this evening.

5.40 Kempton Royal Envoy 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed)

Most of these have physical or mental issues, and struggle to raise a gallop on a good day. This is quite simply one of the worst five furlongs sprints I've seen. Most of them have never won and race but the exception is nine year old Royal Envoy, who is drawn out in the car park in stall 12. He has won six times at this course, an admirable number of victories for a horse of his moderate ability, and a total of nine times in his career. His trainer is best known these days for coaxing win after win out of old Dvinsky, and he seems to be able to freshen up these old warhorses enough to get them to win moderate races on the all weather time and again. If the selection gets luck in running from his draw, there looks enough pace for him to run at late on and perhaps get up for place money at least. Hardly our bet of the year but worth a little investment all the same. 

6.10 Kempton Isis Blue 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed)

This horse comes with a caveat attached, in that he is a two year old who hasn't run for 62 days which isn't something I normally like. However, the stable rarely send runners to the track unfit to do themselves justice, and I think they have a nice horse here, who looks overpriced. The selection made his debut at Ffos Llas and was sent off just 5/1 in a race that was decent for the track. That would suggest the selection is not a handicap project. He looked a really strong type physically, and although green and ultimately well beaten he showed a decent level of raw speed and looked sure to come on a bundle for the run. He is drawn well tonight in a maiden featuring a first time out brother to Dubawi Gold, but barring that the opposition look beatable providing he has improved for his first start. On that basis he looks a good price and we'll play win/place/win.

_______________________________________________________

Two for this afternoon, we will also have at least one evening bet released before 5.00pm.

1.30 Salisbury So Beloved 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 9/1 (William Hill guaranteed, 17/2 Stan James, Betpack, guaranteed, or take 9/1 Coral.) - WON

From Roger Charlton's yard. Made a really nice debut at Newbury, was probably on the wrong side of the track but travelled up to lead a furlong out before fading, which his trainer said was due to weakness (apparently he is the biggest horse in the yard). He is more of a three year old project, so it is interesting Charlton sends him out in early October - I don't think they're trying to get a handicap mark, it looks like he is here to win. James Doyle takes the ride, he is bred to be pattern class, and many relatives have gone with cut in the ground, that coupled with his action is enough for me to take an each-way chance at very fair odds.

2.20 Nottingham Winnie Perry 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Represents the Millman stable, who can train good sprinting two year olds including second time out winners. Winnie Perry was really green at Sandown but was eye catching, making plenty of late headway including amongst horses and between tight gaps, which shows a lot of bravery in a 2yo sprinter. I can't see any particular reason why he is so big today, yes it is a competitive event but there are no superstars on show and the likes of Hoofalong and Robot Boy seem to have been priced up on reputation rather than what they have done on the track. At the prices we'll play our usual win/place/win.

Profit & loss: day: +19.60 / month: +15.60 / year: -31.01