7.10 Wolverhampton Hectors Chance 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Sporting Bet, Blue Square, 888 Sport, 33/1 William Hill, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
I had considered leaving this card alone, but I can't resist a very small each-way interest on Hectors Chance at the prices.
With every bet, you have to ask yourself why a horse is the price it is, what price it should be, and ask yourself "what do I know about the horse that has not been factored into the odds"? I made Hectors Chance a 16/1 shot on my tissue here, but I have a fair idea why 40/1 is available (and bigger on the exchanges) looking at his form figures.
The selection has achieved precisely nothing since running away with an eleven furlong handicap at Kempton in May. However, Heather Main's string were woefully out of form all summer, and between June 12th and the latter weeks of September they had no winners - most of their horses performing abysmally. The selection has had two recent runs on turf, but he has never looked any good on the surface and he looks like a horse much better suited to artificial surfaces. He has some decent form to his name up to a mile and a half, and if you isolate his record over middle distances on the surface it reads 312198, with the last two runs coming in June and July when the stable were out of form. The poor recent form also means he looks quite well handicapped off a mark of OR68.
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One race of interest for this afternoon, a possible evening bet, details at 5.00pm either way.
3.15 Doncaster
Secret Witness 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Gatepost 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Secret Witness handed down a beating to his better fancied stablemate Prodigality in the Portland handicap, running on strongly at the finish giving him a stone in weight in the process. The selection only has to give him 9lb today, and I am happy to forget his runs at Newbury and Ascot because I don't think those tracks suit him. The selection's best performances have come at Doncaster and York, and added to that he has a potentially excellent draw in stall 20 this afternoon. High draws are often favoured on this sort of ground, and with plenty of pace drawn around there, not least Fitz Flyer on the rail, and the stalls on the stands side, Tom Queally might get a nice tow into the race. The selection is top weight, but the price looks too big to ignore.
Gatepost is selected for the Fahey / Hanagan team, they have had horses run well in this contest before and the selection now looks well handicapped off a mark of OR92. Soft ground, rather than heavy, will suit him perfectly in my opinion and the run in the Ayr Silver Cup, if taken on merit, looks decent in the context of this race. I still have one or two question marks about him, but at a double figure price, he merits backing to small stakes as the type of horse who could pop up if everything goes his way.
Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -33.80 / year: -80.41
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