Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Saturday 13th October 2012

Two bets for this afternoon.

2.20 Newmarket 

Heavy Metal 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Parliament Square 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Adam Kirby has oddly deserted Reckless Abandon here, but I don't think Moohaajim deserves to be joint favourite on his form and I'm keen to take them on with two at prices. Heavy Metal represents a stable whose horses can bounce back from disappointments, and the fact that he runs here would suggest Mark Johnston feels there were reasons for that defeat. I expect him to try and make all on the rail and at the prices, I am very keen to have him onside. Parliament Square got close to Reckless Abandon at Deauville and he looks overpriced at 16/1. The O'Brien team are known to get winners with apparent second and third strings on this day and I expected him to be shorter.

3.00 Chepstow Poungach 5pts win @ 7/4 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I would have made Poungach joint favourite with Fingal Bay here and that more or less explains the bet. Unless the Bowen horse is a natural over fences I make it between the two, and I really liked the selection over hurdles, I expect him to prove better again over fences and I think the stable's horses are more forward than has been the case in recent years. Looks good value despite the short price.


Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -56.80 / year: -103.41

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