6.15 Wolverhampton McMonagle 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
The presence of Burnhope and Above Standard here would suggest a strong early pace is likely, and that might play into the hands of the quirky McMonagle, who looks fairly handicapped off OR70 and seems to be running in to form. He pulled like a train for most of the race last time out over seven furlongs here, but there is little doubt he acts well on the surface and given his early exertions he done well to finish second behind Sunley Pride. Robert Winston takes the ride again and I would imagine it was his suggestion to drop back to six furlongs. I think that might make the difference, and if the favourite, who looked plotted up last time out, fails to come on for that run, then the selection could be the one to take advantage at double figure odds.
6.45 Wolverhampton Red Senor 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
Robert Winston's second and final ride at the track tonight. Red Senor didn't go on much in the summer, but by far his best performance came on polytrack when easily beating Christopher Chua by 2 3/4 lengths at Lingfield in March. His turf form leaves a lot to be desired, but the progeny of his sire Red Clubs have an 18% strike rate at this track, and I think he may have been put away with a winter campaign in mind. It is also of interest that he has not been gelded. He is well drawn in stall five, and the race definitely looks like one he can win if turning up fit and ready to go.
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Two races of interest for Saturday afternoon. We may have an additional evening bet, details will be released at 5.00pm either way.
2.30 Doncaster
Captain Dunne 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, brucebetting.com, other independents - all pay 1/4 5 places guaranteed - or take SP with Skybet)
Barnet Fair 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Skybet, 1/4 5 places, 20/1 Bet 365 1/4 5 places guaranteed, or take guaranteed prices with bookies paying 5 places) - Non Runner
A really interesting sprint and with bookmakers clamouring for business by offering 5 places each-way, it makes sense to play each-way. Bet 365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Bruce Betting and many independent bookmakers offer the five places and I've indicated above the best ways of placing your bets.
We witnessed the re-education of Captain Dunne at York last time when he was held up, differing to his usual style of front running. He came home really strongly to take second place behind Pearl Blue, and I would suggest connections will try the same tactics this afternoon. He has run some admirable races at Doncaster down the years, beaten 1 1/4 lengths by Prohibit in a listed race and 3/22 in the Portland leading two furlongs out. Statistics show that it is harder to be in the lead two furlongs from home and win at Doncaster than any other track in the U.K., so you have to think those decent runs were despite the track and not because he has been suited by it. The recent change in tactics is the key here, drawn in stall 17 he is close to pace horses like Judge N Jury (how many times have we mentioned him in this context this season!), Move In Time, and Moorehouse Lad so he should get a good tow into the race. Off a handicap mark of OR95 I would expect him to finish strongly and hopefully get up close home.
Barnet Fair has improved all season and I think his lack of popularity in the markets here is down to a perception that he won't go on soft ground. I find sometimes that unless ground is very extreme, it can be particular to a track and if a horse goes at the track once, he can sometimes get away with ground he wouldn't normally act on at that course again. The selection ran a hell of a race in last year's Portland, but was all over the track and never landed a blow. His fourth in this year's race came when he got a really poor ride, far too prominent with little cover, and he faded to finish fourth. He is all speed and if Robbie Fitzpatrick can get a similar tow into the race to Captain Dunne (drawn next door in stall 16) then I think he has the ability to cause a minor shock. The stable are in form again and their horses are routinely underbet.
2.45 Newbury
Hazel Lavery 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 11/1 William Hill, Boylesports guaranteed) - WON
Khione 1pt each-way @ 28/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, betpack.com, Coral - all pay 1/4 odds 3 places)
A really interesting Group 3 which has been won by the fairer sex three times in the last ten runnings. Many of these horses seem to come into this race as an afterthought, ie. it is not the focal point of their seasons, and it is hard to win a Group 3 contest on heavy ground unless 100% ready. For that reason I'm happy to take on some of the name horses in the line up and am siding with two fillies who I think have excellent chances of progressing and handling the prevailing ground conditions. 1/4 odds are paid each-way by numerous bookmakers, I would suggest betting with them.
Hazel Lavery has apparently had this race as her target since Doncaster last time out. She looks to be improving with each run and is by Excellent Art, whose progeny have an awesome 22% strike rate on heavy ground. The weight allowances she receives as a three year old will be invaluable and it is interesting connections are keen to take on Hawaafez again. Eddie Ahern takes the ride.
Khione represents Luca Cumani who trained the fourth in the race last year. She would be a surprise winner but she looks all about stamina and I have little doubt that heavy ground will see her improve. Her trainer does not tilt at windmills and, although there can be a temptation to enter these fillies in the hope of grabbing some black type, this horse still looks to be progressive and is probably overpriced given that she is unexposed in these conditions. We'll have a smaller bet at the prices.
Profit & loss: day: +22.50 / month: -11.30 / year: -57.91
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