Saturday 29th September 2012

It has been a fine week, indeed a fine couple of weeks. As I said, St. Leger day usually sees us start a good run and while you shouldn't be over confident in racing, it is important to have the courage of your convictions. Doc Hay made us a nice profit that day, we had a nice winner last Friday at Ayr, and the backend maidens which are our bread and butter have now well and truly kicked in. I would hope for more of the same in the next few weeks.

Our Cambridgeshire bet is a non runner.

Small chance of an evening bet, to be released at 5.15pm.

3.15 Haydock Steps 5pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Revels in these conditions, five furlongs and soft ground. I was particularly taken with his win at Newmarket earlier this season in just these circumstances. Out two year old won racing on the far side of the track yesterday and I think middle to far side might be the place to be here. However, I feel pace is more important on this track and Steps has come up trumps in that regard. Captain Dunne is drawn three and Judge N Jury is drawn six, more than enough to give him the tow into the race he requires. I think he is well handicapped and I'm happy to forgive a middling Portland run on the basis that the ground was quick enough - indeed despite the going description of good William Buick described it as "on the fast side". 7/1 here looks a decent price.

3.30 Chester Advanced 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Dr. Red Eye should set the pace here and I feel this race might just be teed up for old Advanced to get his head in front. Seven furlongs on soft ground is no problem for Advanced, who is generally trained to come to hand at this time of year for Ayr. He wasn't beaten far in the Stewards Cup (only 3 1/2 lengths) and he was 3/12 in his group at Ayr last week. He is probably not as good as he was, but with a strong pace to run at today he is very tempting off a mark of OR88 with a good 3lb claimer on board. He has run well here in the past and I think he can run a place at least today.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +33.65 / year: -70.61