One for tonight.
9.00 Kempton Lily Potts 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill, or take 9/1 1/4 odds with www.betbyrne.comguaranteed, or 9/1 generally guaranteed - this may drift on course so make sure of a guaranteed price)
Not a very good race at all, even for a 0-60, but Chris Down's horses tend to go well at Kempton and Lily Potts has twice run well at this track, suggesting she handles the surface well. She is moderate, but she has been placed well here with horses of similar or lesser ability, and I think she is good each-way value against the favourite given a couple of possible factors which could see her improve. She is on a fair mark of OR58, and two recent runs at Bath yielded two half decent performances, despite the fact that she never looked entirely comfortable on the undulating track. The race last time was a class 5 event and she was held up off an absolute crawl, in the circumstances she asserted herself well and the 7 1/4 lengths she was beaten does not tell the whole story. I expect Kempton to suit better and it is also of interest that her best performance came on October 22nd last year, when she posted an RPR of 70 at Newbury on her second start. I wouldn't take rating too literally (or the proximity to Shirocco Star!), but these fillies can often come to hand at the same time of year and with two recent runs behind her, she should be 100% fit and ready this evening. Ideally I'd like to see a strong pace tonight to sort out the dead wood and non stayers. Lily Potts is ridden by Jemma Marshall who has a notably better record on the all weather than turf, and has ridden 5 winners at this track. She claims 5lb off the fillies' back and at 9/1 or better, her mount is worthy of support.
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A nice winner last night at Kempton.
Two for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet, details either way before 5.15pm.
2.00 Wolverhampton Drawnfromthepast 4pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, guaranteed) - WON
Represents Jamie Osborne whose sprinters are in good form. Jamie Spencer is an eye catching booking for this horse who drops back to five furlongs, a trip he has won over before off higher marks than this. He needs holding up and a strong pace to run at, indeed that also means he needs things to drop right for him and the gaps to come at the right time. Probably not an each-way proposition as such, but he is clear on speed figures at the track and this looks winnable from his current mark for a horse of his ability.
3.00 Wolverhampton Train Hard 5pts win @ 4/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, William Hill, independents, guaranteed)
Made a nice debut in a decent maiden at Nottingham, savvy enough on his debut to take the lead and stay there until the two pole. He may not have appreciated the soft ground, but either way it looked a nice performance and there is little doubt he will improve for the run. Mark Johnston tends to start mopping up all weather maidens right about now, and the selection is by Rail Link, whose progeny are doing well on the all weather, out of a mare who ran for the Johnstons and won twice on polytrack and once on fibresand. Stall two and the evidence of the first run suggests Joe will be trying to make all here, I think he will be good enough to hold them off down the straight and 4/1 looks fair.
Profit & loss: day: +30.00 / month: -0.80 / year: -47.41
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