Thursday 4th October 2012

Two selections for this afternoon, small chance of an evening bet at Wolverhampton - details either way before 5.00pm.

4.10 Warwick Harwoods Star 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Represents a stable in pretty decent nick right now who tend to get two year old winners around this time of the year. The selection made his debut in a decent Newbury maiden twelve days ago and showed himself to be a fine big colt, scopey with a real rounded action typical of a son of Danehill Dancer out of a Sadler's Wells mare. Harwoods Star is actually bred to be quite precocious, half sister Conniption won first time out at Newbury on soft ground, while Hongkong Dancer hit RPR's of 80+ on his second and third starts as a two year old, once on soft ground. Warwick is soft today and I expect a decent level of improvement from his debut as a result - the ground was quite fast at Newbury and it would not have suited, he wasn't really asked to do too much. He travelled ok but didn't really quicken, allowed to come home in his own time on the wrong side of the track. Jim Crowley takes the ride today and the stable are 4/26 at Warwick in recent years, improving to 2/9 29% +32.00 to level stakes with two year olds. 12/1 looks a very decent each-way price.

6.00 Southwell Hoonose 1pt each-way And 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I was quite surprised given the Eddery team's 18% strike rate at this track and their recent return to form that Hoonose was not priced up around half these odds (I make him around 12/1 or 14/1). The selection made his fibresand debut over five furlongs on his penultimate run and was completely outpaced over five furlongs. However, he made up fully eight to ten lengths on the horse who eventually beat him a short head into sixth. We can't know the value of that performance without sectional timing and also without the camera picking up his fast finish, but the Racing Post reader listed his performance as "promising" and I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt that he was simply outpaced but acted well on the surface given his price. He returns to the track today over a mile, with a lowly rating, out of the handicap but with a decent draw and good improving 7lb claimer on his back. None of these look bombproof, and there is every chance he can run into a place or better if fibresand and a mile trip bring out the best in him.

Profit & loss: day: -1.20 / month: +14.40 / year: -32.21