Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Tuesday 16th October 2012

A nice winner yesterday with Noble Gift seeing it out strongly on the ground. Profitable Mondays always seem to make the rest of the week easier.

Two selections for today. 

2.40 Leicester Foursquare Funtime 2pts each-way AND 1pt win 7/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, guaranteed, 13/2 VC Bet, Paddy Power, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Represents Reg Hollinshead, whose stable have a 14% strike rate in sellers over the course of the last five seasons, returning an l.s.p. of +18.23. The selection has won on soft ground already this year, but the stable haven't been in the best of form in 2012 and it would suggest to me the horse has done well to pick up a race. Hollinshead's team have hit their best form of the year in recent weeks, however, and I would expect a good run from the selection this afternoon, particularly given that he ran well over a mile here on his last visit to the track. He seems to go well after a few weeks break, and he is reunited today with a jockey whose record on him reads 2,1. I had him priced up as a 9/2 shot, and with conditions in his favour he makes appeal at 13/2+.

7.20 Wolverhampton Diman Waters 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, Paddy Power, guaranteed, 22/1 VC Bet guaranteed)

A really interesting one here, and a decent sized bet considering the price would hint that I've been waiting for this horse for a while. Diman Waters makes his debut on the all weather this evening, for a stable who recently sent out Doctor Parkes at the track to make a successful all weather debut aged 6 on his 34th start. Diman Waters starts his 33rd race tonight at the age of five, he is a strapping big horse whom I have always thought would relish artificial surfaces, but who has failed to make a real impact on turf this season bar one race at Haydock on form ground. He doesn't really act on soft ground, which explains his latest flop, and Chester's tight track and a wide draw really wouldn't have suited the time before. He ran well at Redcar before that, but I've been itching for connections to try something different with him, and they finally do tonight. This is a competitive sprint, but if the selection takes to the surface he looks very well handicapped off OR72. He is an uncomplicated ride, and from stall 5 Kelly Harrison should probably keep it simple, tracking Red Cape and Amoure Medici before taking her chance in the home straight. I make the selection much shorter than 25/1, so I'm happy to have a decent each-way investment at the prices.


Profit & loss: day: -5.40 / month: -45.80 / year: -92.41

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