Wednesday 10th October 2012

Two really interesting maidens at Kempton tonight.

Over the course of the next month or two, we will have interests in many two year old maidens, on the all weather in particular. On occasion, we will have two interests in the one race and in that case I usually prefer a win only approach because generally when we pick to in this type of race, they are boom or bust type selections and it is hard to know sometimes if they are even trying to win. Lexington Place would be an example yesterday, he represents gambling connections and was well backed early but drifted markedly before the off, and was never put in the race. I find maidens very profitable over time (our results back that up) and we'll get a few big priced winners from them at this time of year, along with a few who won't have tried or don't improve as anticipated.

6.30 Kempton 

Countryman 3pts win @ 8/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, guaranteed, 15/2 VC Bet, indepentents, guaranteed)

Miss Mocca 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Countryman is a son of Pastoral Pursuits whose progeny have an 18% strike rate here. Trainer Hughie Morrison's juveniles tend to improve for a run (14% second time out record) and the selection looked quite unfit for his debut run at Newbury. He didn't show a whole lot but looked a sizeable colt and perhaps didn't enjoy the good ground. Polytrack will suit him better and the way he blew up having travelled well, staying on well again close home, would suggest improvement is very likely from a fitness point of view this evening. The favourite here showed one or two signs of temperament first time out (response wasn't great under pressure) and although Beckett's horses also improve and do really well here, I think there are enough negatives (his price included) to take him on.

Miss Mocca represents a trainer who does well here. She receives 7lb to 10lb off the colts and geldings here, taking into account the claim of the excellent Raul Da Silva, and there might be more improvement in her than the other filly Living The Life at this stage. She is by Bahamian Bounty out of a Sri Pekan mare, and I think polytrack will suit her much better than the heavy ground she encountered at Carlisle second time out - I think she was made too much use of that day too and I can't see how, having finished a gallant fourth, she only received a rating of RPR52  for her effort. I think she can improve here and again, if the favourite turns out not to be all that she would have every chance.

7.00 Kempton 

Exit Clause 3pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Kastini 2pts win @ 33/1 (www.brucebetting.com, Boylesports, William Hill, betrogers.com, betbyrne.com, other independents, all guaranteed)

A really interesting contest. I can't see how the favourite is so short based on her debut run and I'm keen to take her on, with the change of surface not necessarily a positive.

Exit Clause represents a sire I know nothing about, but the dam was a 7f polytrack winner and his debut here was pleasing. He was slowly away, but travelled well making a sweeping outside move on the bend, still going ok in the home straight before being tapped for toe, staying on quite well towards the finish having hung right and been corrected by his jockey, who gave him a nice educational ride. The step up in trip should suit ok, and although the stable are not renowned for their prowess with 2yos, they have taken the trouble to book the excellent Martin Harley, and if there is fitness to work on their colt might just be good enough to cause a surprise.

Denis Coakley's string are always to be feared at Kempton and he is shrewd with his money too. Kastini is by a sire who does well here and he showed promise on his debut here having been held up with little chance of getting involved. It was unusual that, at odds of 150/1 in a very strong Newbury maiden last time, he was sent on and travelled well with the leaders before fading. His jockey was at pains to ride him tenderly and I basically think he was hidden (watch the replay). Lo and behold, the money has come today and if they decide to make all from stall one, he might not get caught. 33/1 was always too big.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -28.80 / year: -75.41