Wednesday 17th October 2012

I've stated on a couple of occasions that I don't like to go on about jockeys etc., because a jockey's ability must be factored into any bet one has. Saying that. Tadhg O'Shea's ride on Ladweb earlier looked really bad, he actually looked imbalanced on the horse at one point and failed to ask the horse to take a clear gap which could have won the race for him in the final furlong, instead pulling the reins and settling for "unplaced" in the manner of a jockey going nowhere. It is unsurprising he has lost the Maktoum job and one wonders if there are problems away from the track.

The 2yo wasn't good enough, but was hardly helped by Michael Hills, whose seemed to be supping a mental cocktail in Barbados following his retirement in a few weeks, rather than on the job. I am surprised he did not make use of a decent draw and given that connections seemed to have money down (that money was surely not all Strikeline cash?) it seems unusual. We were correct about the price being plain wrong, a pity the horse could not deliver.

One for this evening.

6.10 Kempton Ivestar 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

0/10 on the all weather but while that explains the price, it does not tell the full story. The selection has run respectably on the surface but is clearly hard to train because he is very lightly raced for a seven year old. He burst into life last time out with a very easy win over the minimum and although this is a different surface, it is a poor race and if he can simply repeat that performance he should win here. Of course horses are not robots, but he is not that long with Mick Easterby, and it is just possible new connections have found the key to him. He carries a penalty this evening but has a reasonable draw and a good jockey booked. 5/1 is fair.

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Foursquare Funtime covered the stake having run into a place yesterday, Diman Waters was disappointing (far too keen) but it was a bit of a kick in the teeth that his stablemate Song Of Parkes won on the same card at 18/1, on her second ever polytrack run - a similar angle in to what we were looking at with our selection.

Two for this afternoon and a possible evening bet, details either way before 5.00pm.

3.35 Lingfield Short Squeeze 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (www.brucebetting.com, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed)

Made a really eye catching debut in a very strong Newmarket maiden won by Code Of Honour which I've already referred to, and the Racing Post spotlight writer got it very wrong when he suggested a no show. In fact, the selection was drawn 17 and raced on a part of the track that was clearly not favoured. Even so, he stayed on the bridle a lot longer than most of his rivals, which included horses who have shown themselves to be OR80+ types based on their next runs, and he only faded late on when his exertions had told including the fact that he was a bit keen. The stable's juveniles have improved second time out all year and Michael Hills turns up for the one ride. Sire Cape Cross's progeny go well on the all weather, and the dams side of the pedigree includes a couple of decent all weather performers. He is a smashing looking colt and his trainer seems to like him too:

"A lot of the yards bigger 2 year olds are beginning to come to hand and I am excited about getting the opportunities to run them in the coming weeks and months.  Racing Post filly Born To Run is beginning to hit her straps as is Incendiary's sister Xerxes.  Two of the best looking 2 year olds who will be even more gorgeous next year are Audacia and Short Squeeze and now that we are into August they are really filling their frames and all of us here with excitement at what they may become the Autumn and indeed next year."

He is drawn in stall four and I pretty much knew the price here was all wrong, he has been well backed and we have a decent bet on our hands, win or lose.

3.45 Nottingham Ladweb 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed)

A run of the mill maiden. I must say I didn't fancy the outsider Shatin Secret at all, I think his sire's progeny are better on fast ground admittedly from limited early evidence, and I am surprised he has been nibbled - it perhaps suggests punters expect improvement second time out and with the booking of the excellent Danny Tudhope some have latched on - because nothing else looks very solid. Rangooned was ultimately well beaten in a very average looking contest last time out despite finishing second, and Attenshun is a U.S.A. bred who may not go on this soft ground.

Ladweb represents John Gallagher, who does well with this type of horse and sent an unexposed filly, Heartsong, up to Nottingham earlier this year to win on soft ground, which she goes well on. The selection ran really well at Yarmouth last time out on heavy, but still looked very green and was in front far too soon for my liking. He probably got tired too, but a more considerate ride this afternoon might pay dividends and it is a bonus that he is proven in the conditions. Most of the others are not, on that basis and with 1/4 odds paid I'#ve decided to ploy each-way.

Profit & loss: day: +15.00 / month: -30.80 / year: -77.41