The start of a huge weekend for us, we'll be covering the Breeder's Cup extensively tomorrow but I like to take a look at how the track is riding on the Friday and we won't be betting at Santa Anita tonight. Tomorrow's card is stunning, really looking forward to it.
5.15 Wolverhampton Carrera 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
John Hills tends to get a maiden winner or two at this time of year, and he had a 25/1 shot with a very similar profile to this horse run 2nd at Lingfield in a decent maiden yesterday. Carrera made his debut 15 days ago. He is a Derby entry, so 6f at Kempton was always likely to be too sharp for him, he also looked very green but he settled into the race and by the home turn was in contention. There was no turn of foot there, and the impression I got was that they were simply going a stride too quick for him. When he lost his chance, his jockey eased right off and allowed him to come home in his own time. That kindness might be repaid tonight, he steps up to an extended seven furlongs and he is drawn nicely in stall four to get a prominent sit. If he can travel better and handle the early pace, and if he has come on for that first run, he might make his presence felt in the finish and he looks overpriced in what is a poor maiden. Small stakes but he looks good value with Seb Sanders in the plate.
7.15 Wolverhampton Outlaw Torn 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 7/1 (Stan James, betpack.com, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed) - WON @ 17/2
Question marks about many of these, but I think Outlaw Torn looks progressive on the surface. The form of his last two runs here has been franked and I don't think he has been helped by wide draws, last time in particular he had to use a lot of petrol to get the early lead he needs. He pulled really hard and done well to finish third. He is drawn in stall 3 today and should be able to get to the front no problem. I think My Mate Jake might just feel his Doncaster exertions here, and I'm not sure about the rest. Take Outlaw Torn to make all, I fancy him to finish in the first three so we'll play each-way and win.
Profit & loss: day: +25.90 / month: +19.90 / year: -0.01
No comments:
Post a Comment