1.55 Cheltenham Ashkazar 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
I can't believe the price on this one, a horse with plenty of course form including on soft ground, who has probably been laid out to the minute by the Pipe team and with Timmy Murphy booked. It is a difficult race to pick through, but the selection certainly looks well handicapped and looks the sort the stable excel with producing for one big day. They are in fine form and I'd be surprised if this was not the target for a while now; double figures is too big.
2.35 Cheltenham - The Paddy Power Gold Cup
Triolo D'Alene 3pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed, already advised)
Walkon 3pts win @ 8/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, Stan James, betpack.com, guaranteed)
A lot of talk about the top end of the weights but this is a handicap don't forget and the rain softened ground will be a great leveller coming up the hill. I'm not mad about Grand Crus' jumping, and I'm not sure about Hunt Ball on the ground, or first time up in this kind of race. Not a massive Al Ferof fan either. As such this may go to a top end handicapper rather than a class act and I've taken two against the field. Barry Geraghty is doing 10-1 on Triolo D'Alene which makes you sit up and take notice straight away. He was well fancied by connections against Hunt Ball at Cheltenham but didn't fire and ended up needing a breathing op.
Walkon comes in somewhere between class act and top handicapper, he looks well weighted on his best form and crucially he has strong soft ground form, indeed his form with cut in the ground looks his best. More than most, he looks set to enjoy these conditions and at 8/1 he still looks a backable price.
2.50 Lingfield Ballista 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON
Represents Tom Dascombe, whose stable continue in exellent form. Ballista is improving fast, and his Leicester run was probably his best yet. He is forgiven a poor run on soft ground last time, Dascombe trains his horses on polytrack and I have little doubt he will act on the surface. He is well drawn and his jockey is likely to ride him prominently, tactics which are tending to do well on this relaid surface.
Profit & loss: day: +19.00 / month: +36.90 / year: +17.00
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