12.35AM Santa Anita - The Breeders Cup Classic
Fort Larned 3pts win @ 8/1 (VC Bet, William Hill, independents, guaranteed, 15/2 Paddy Power, guaranteed) - WON @ 9/1
Ron The Greek 3pts win @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 7/1 Generally guaranteed)
Nothing stands out at a price like Drosselmeyer did for me last year (if only!) but I do have very strong opinions on this race with regard to pace. Quite simply, it is tough as hell to make all in this race and no horse has done so since Ghostzapper made on on a speed favouring Lone Star Park track in Texas in 2003. If any of you have ever read Patrick Veith's book, you'll know he had a theory about Cheltenham championship races and jockeys setting off too quick, setting the race up for stamina laden types coming up the hill. I have the same theory about the Classic, there is an awful lot of wad up for grabs and it can go to jockey's heads at times. Drosselmeyer came fast and late after a pace burn up last year, just the latest horse in a long line of winners (Blame, Zenyatta, Raven's Pass, Curlin, Invasor, St Liam) who have been produced relatively late.
Two stick out for me. Fort Larned is forgiven his run at Belmont, many horses don't act at the track and the horse wasn't 100% ready for the day - this has always been his target and the plan was to have him spot on for this. He is drawn well to sit handy just off the speed, and if he gets a decent tow into it, he is progressive enough to win looking at his best speed figures. He ships in from Kemtucky and is said to be working extremely well.
Ron The Greek chased home Fort Larned on his penultimate run. He is trained by William Mott, who trained Drosselmeyer, and his finest hour came over course when winning the Santa Anita handicap earlier this year. He was forced wide when chasing home Fort Larned and the race didn't seem to pan out to his want. A manic pace might set this up for him in my view, he is drawn in stall ten and his jockey will have no choice but to sit off the pace. I can see him coming fast and late, and anything around 7/1 or better looks like decent value.
22.18 Santa Anita Shareta 5pts each-way @ 9/2 (VC Bet, William Hill, Independents, guaranteed - or take 4/1 Stan James, Bet 365 guaranteed e/w 1/4 odds)
(Maximum Bet)
A race that has been good to us down the years, with a winning maximum in the form of Dangerous Midge in 2010, and Sea Moon returning a small profit for an each-way maximum last year with St. Nicholas Abbey swooping late to deny us another big payout. It is a race dominated by the Europeans, and as such I often feel there are plenty of horses you can throw out to start off, making it a good race to play each-way in. I don't think Point Of Entry has the class of the Europeans here, and apart from him I see nothing in the American contingent to trouble the European horses barring bad luck in running. Shareta looks a very progressive filly, her second place finish in the Arc last season was no fluke, but it is her defeat of The Fugue at York giving that filly 10lb that is the real key to this contest. John Gosden toyed with the idea of running his filly here instead of last night, which is basically an indicator that he didn't think the race was that strong. Shareta was the fly in the ointment, she pulled away from The Fugue in the closing stages at York and you have to think that would have confirmed the form here. Obviously Gosden thought the same, as it transpires The Fugue was unlucky not to win last night.
Reports from the track are that Shareta has worked well over there and appears to have travelled over with no problems. Her prominent style of racing and decent draw should assure that she makes her own luck in running. Her jockey rode two races here last night and will be full of confidence having won on Flotilla. It really leaves very few negatives and I struggle to see her out of the three given the normal luck in running that any horse requires to win a race.
As for the other Europeans, St. Nicholas Abbey hasn't looked the same horse this season but remains the main danger. Trailblazer is rumoured to have been a bit wild in the past week, misbehaving on the track during his schooling. I don't think his form is good enough anyway. The horse I am most afraid of is Cogito, who represents Dangerous Midge's trainer and jockey combination. Brian Meehan has an excellent record in the Breeders Cup and he wouldn't be sending the horse over for the Californian Sun. He is a huge price, and I may have a saver to cover my stake. All told, I feel Shareta has the best form this year and rates a maximum bet in a race that looks as if it will set up for her.
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Outlaw Torn was a tough as nails winner for us last night, I must say I enjoy his make all and hold off all comers style, not wholly dissimilar to that of Royal Delta, who was superb in winning the Ladies' Classic last night. The fractions she set had to be seen to be believed!
3.10 Ascot Alfie Spinner 4pts win @ 13/2 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)
Nick Williams horses are profitable to back blind on their season debuts at this time of year, he tends to have them wound up first time, and I think Alfie Spinner can win this off his current handicap. He is a real old fashioned chaser, he made real progress last season as a six and seven year old, and I would expect better again this year. He took to Ascot's quirky right handed track well when jumping fast and finishing third behind Invictus and Bobs Worth here last winter, that race has obviously worked out very well and I think he can confirm the form with Baile Anrai, who feel when still travelling well enough. Mark Quinlan takes 3lb off his back, and I feel there are question marks about many of the others. He will be our first bet of the National Hunt season proper.
Profit & loss: day: +10.00 / month: +29.90 / year: +9.99
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