Saying that, it is a very difficult day to get a handle on from the point of view of getting an edge on prices. I have spotted two candidates, and we'll play relatively small stakes.
2.50 Lingfield Forgive 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 ( VCBet, Paddy Power, Stan James, Betpack, Ladbrokes, get guaranteed)
You'll find some trainers entering fillies in listed races to gain black type, but Richard Hannon's representatives are generally in it to win it and he places his horses famously well in all non handicaps, not just maidens. Lingfield is no longer riding the way it used to, prominent racers are now dominating and it may be some time before that changes. Not many of these fillies are proven over a mile on the all weather, and Forgive is a notable exception along. She is well drawn, and likes to race prominently, as a filly who looks a galloper rather than a quickener. She should be ideally suited to these conditions, and although she has to improve a bit to win here, some of her rivals may not run to form under these race conditions and at double figure odds, she looks underestimated.
3.50 Lingfield Ligurian Sea 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Boylesports, VCBet, Stan James, Betpack, William Hill, get guaranteed)
Chris Wall's horses are in fine form, and his handicap debutants that have had three starts have a very good record. Ligurian Sea fits this profile, and her trainer is also a dab hand training fillies. Indeed, Wall trained her half sister Rafiqa to win on her fourth start (second handicap start) in 2008 and she ended up rated OR85 after that race. Ligurian switched to Wall from Walter Swinburn, her first run of the year came one month ago at Nottingham where she appeared to need the run, one paced and not asked too many questions. She is a fine looking filly, though, and I would expect plenty of improvement off a handicap mark of OR67 today. Ted Durcan, who rode two winners here yesterday and appears to know what it takes to win at the recently resurfaced course, takes the ride and he has been riding winners for Wall in recent days. The progeny of Medicean have been doing quite well on standard to slow ground lately at both Kempton and Lingfield which have both been resurfaced, and although I have no stats to hand and the sample size is small, it is quite interesting. There are some very average older horses in here, and if the selection is fit and ready to put her best foot forward, I would suggest the favourite is probably her main danger. Double figures are again too big.
Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -6.00 / year: -25.91
No comments:
Post a Comment