Two selections for this afternoon, evening bets may follow with details either way at 3.30pm.
I'll probably regret tearing up the fibresand rulebook by quarter to two, but the fact is some horses do win on their fibresand debut and they aren't all U.S.A. bred. Saying that, Nasharra is close enough to a U.S. bred given that her dam and damsire are both U.S., indeed the dam was a fibresand winner back in the days before Wolverhampton changed to polytrack. There is also hope on the sire's side, Ifraaj's progeny having a 13% strike rate on the surface. The selection has been kept to turf thus far, but represents a stable whose horses have a 20% strike rate here in the last five seasons. I thought his run at Ayr was full of promise, he was drawn wide and slowly away on bottomless ground, but made up plenty of ground mid race before fading into third, having raced on the wrong part of the track. He is drawn in stall four today which is a good draw, and his six furlong speed should allow him to take up a prominent position going into the first turn. This horse kept listed company as a two year old, and although it has been a long road back since, he races off a mark of just OR70 today and some of his efforts in 2012, including a making all win over 6f at Carlisle off 1lb lower, would suggest a revival may be imminent this winter. A point each-way and two win saves the stake in the event of a place.
2.10 Southwell Xpres Maite 2pts each-way @ 25/1 (Paddy Power, Totesport, Betfred, independents, guaranteed, Skybet)
Again I'll probably be questioned for taking on the great La Estrella, but with just six runners and one confirmed front runner, this looks tailor made for Xpres Maite to make all. La Estrella looked beaten at one point in this race last year and the horse he beat went backwards, Kishanda was a three year old at the time and the race wasn't great. Xpres Maite comes here 100% fit and if his jockey is told to send him on, I would really fancy his chances. Fibresand is unusual in that horses tend to be able to stretch their stamina on the surface, and a win over course and distance beside a bunch of course wins over 6f and 7f would suggest Xpres Maite falls into that category of horse. I don't understand the price difference between he and Pendragon, Pendragon reopposes on better terms today but Xpres Maite's mid race speed was much more evident, and that is what wins races on this surface. A 25/1 winner would be nice, lets just hope Xpres Maite is sent forward, if that is the case, I think there is a good chance of collecting place money at the very least (place bet pays over 6/1).
Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: +16.90 / year: -3.00
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