A busy today for us today, winter and the all weather season are truly upon us!
1.20 Southwell Sensucht 5pts win @ 2/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
I can see no reason why Sensucht is not favourite here up against a horse with no fibresand experience at the head of the market. He ran below form last time out but that was in a very strong race for the grade and I'm not sure he was fully ready after a month off. He drops back to maiden company today and his form behind No Dominion is a standout in this company. No Dominion is a very good horse and the pair pulled well clear of the field in filling the first two places. 2/1 represents value, no doubt about it. Get guaranteed as, bizarrely, it might drift further.
1.50 Southwell Eastern Dragon 4pts win @ 9/2 (VC Bet, Stan James, www.betpack.com, guaranteed, 4/1 generally guaranteed)
Has been backed a bit early doors. Eastern Dragon represents a sire whose progeny do very well at Southwell, including first time on the surface. He has looked a bit one paced so far in his career but his stable are in fine form and if he takes to the surface there is little for him to be afraid of here. The top two in the market look awfully short and, unless there is something lurking at a price, I can see Eastern Dragon landing the spoils.
2.50 Southwell Dubaianswer 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Brucebetting.com, guaranteed, 12/1 Coral)
An out and out fibresand specialist who travels extremely well on the surface and boasts a standout piece of form in the context of this race - her defeat of Mawakeef by 1 3/4 lengths in receipt of 4lb looks really strong in retrospect. That rival has since won off OR84. The third has won a pair of sellers since, Colour Guard (4th) won his next two starts over course and distance and is now rated OR81. Follow The Flag is a Southwell stalwart, Piceno ran really well here last time out and is progressive. She beat those rivals easily, and the fact that her trainer has tried her in listed company is a measure of how highly he rates her. She travels incredibly strongly on this surface, and she should get the decent pace she requires to use her finishing speed today. Anything in double figures looks too big.
5.25 Kempton Electric Qatar 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
A really competitive looking sprint and a credit to Kempton for putting it on at this early stage of the season. The claims of the favourite are there for all to see, but since a breathing operation sorted him out, Electric Qatar has gone 2/2 on polytrack and although the form doesn't amount to much, the manner of victory has impressed on both occasions. He is tailor made for Jamie Spencer's hold up style, needing to be ridden with loads of confidence before using what is a very fast one furlong burst at the end of his race. He will always need luck in running, and this is as likely to be a heartbreaking defeat / trouble in running job as it is a win, but at double figures and with plenty of pace on with a good draw, I fancy his chances, particularly if it transpires that he is the type to go best fresh.
Profit & loss: day: -15.00 / month: +1.90 / year: -18.00
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