6.35 Kempton Kalokagathia 4pts win @ 7/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, guaranteed, 13/2 Generally guaranteed)
Represents Jo Crowley whose string tend to go very well on the all weather and at Kempton and Lingfield (before resurfacing) in particular. Kalokagathia has been off for a few months but Jo tends to have her horses fit enough to do themselves justice first time back and it looks like the selection has been kept fresh with a winter campaign in mind. He is unlucky not to have gotten his head in front already, and the form of his third run, a maiden at this track, is working out quite well. In fact I think he is a very genuine horse, and likely to serve it up to the favourite if on song. The absence and the stable's recent form are negatives, but I reckon if Jo had had a few recent winners this fella would be more like 7/2 against the favourite - he has the form to win this and the odds are very fair.
7.05 Kempton Rich Forever 3pts win @ 14/1 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 12/1 Generally guaranteed)
James Bethell has done well lately with his runners on the all weather, and he sent Steelriver down here to win a maiden impressively last month. Rich Forever makes the trip down from North Yorkshire tonight and it is interesting connections have taken the trouble to book Mikael Barzalona. He was entered in a listed race last time out but made no impact on soft ground. The return to nursery company and the switch to a more forgiving surface which he should handle could see him put in an improved performance here. He won at Newcastle on his penultimate start and I felt he was quite impressive, he is a nice size of a horse and I would suggest there is scope beyond his current mark of OR77. A wide draw tempers enthusiasm somewhat, but in a race that looks ripe for an upset (I don't fancy the favourite!) he looks a decent value bet at 12/1+.
______________________________________
Good profits on the day yesterday with Unknown Villain landing another punt, the early 8/1 and 15/2 we took was too big either way. Bonne Amie was a non runner which is disappointing, because that maiden looked really poor and I'm not sure about that favourite! Parisian Pyramid led but faded tamely, the Williams yard have yet to find the key to him but I think they will before long.
One race of interest for this afternoon, and possible evening selections - details on those before 5.00pm either way - we won't be betting in either of the 10 furlong handicaps which kickstart Kempton's card.
Daliance 4pts win @ 7/1 (VC Bet, William Hill, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)
Emerald Wilderness 2pts win @ 16/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, Paddy Power, independents, guaranteed)
Daliance is a smashing looking son of Dalakhani from the in form Dascombe yard. He remains unexposed at middle distances on this surface, his two runs at twelve furlongs on the all weatherhave yielded a win and two career best RPR's of 85 and 90. He is well treated off OR83 and don't forget thr three year old allowance of a generous 7lb, which is daylight robbery at this time of year. The selection was held up off what looked a slow pace last time out, but the final time was faster than standard which muddies the waters somewhat in terms of pace analysis. Daliance was held up in last, and made really good ground on the inside, crucially away from the two horses who came down the outer and finished first and second. His run petered out but I would suggest he may have been racing on the wrong part of the track that evening. He is given another chance in this competitive race, and I would like to see him race a bit handier. Anything around 6/1 or better looks decent value and his jockey is riding extremely well at present.
Emerald Wilderness looks overpriced at around 16/1. He is a multiple all weather winner and can be forgiven a poor run last time out because I don't think heavy ground is his thing. Previous to that he won well over eleven furlongs on good to firm, he is clearly well in himself and a mark of OR92 doesn't look insurmountable for a horse of his class on this surface. He is of particular interest if this is slowly run, his proven turn of foot over ten furlongs might be enough to outspeed the stayers down the lingfield home straight if they go a conservative gallop.
Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +26.70 / year: -19.91
No comments:
Post a Comment