Friday 30th November 2012

Despite some good quality action today, there are limited proper betting opportunities. Saying that, there is one overpriced horse at Wolverhampton.

5.55 Wolverhampton Advanced 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

It might seem folly to recommend a 9yo who has never won over the mile trip, but Advanced has one decent piece of all weather form over a mile, at Lingfield off a mark of OR105 in 2010, and I have a sneaking feeling he might be able to stretch his stamina this evening given this might be a slowly run race, off a mark of OR83. His run at Lingfield last time was an excellent one, the form is strong for the grade and I don't think the standard to slow at Lingfield will have played to his strengths. He ran five pound above his current handicap mark, though, and on his old form he is chucked in tonight. Some of his rivals have question marks against them on recent form, and despite his big field handicap form he has won in fields of nine and seven. Amy Ryan is forging a decent partnership with him, and I think if he settles into a rhythm here he can get involved in the finish. The stable are in excellent form, and by playing each-way we can protect our outlay.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +21.70 / year: +1.80

Thursday 29th November 2012

Both yesterday's selections finished third. I was a little disappointed with the ride given to Communicator, but Media Hype surprised both myself and the betfair layers (BSP 7.71, ISP 3/1) by winning impressively. I hadn't marked him down as a natural on the surface after his previous run. He can go on from that.

One selection for this evening.

7.05 Kempton Arctic Lynx 4pts win @ 7/1 (Skybet, Sporting Bet, Blue Square, 888 Sport, independents)

I find this horse really interesting given the excellent form of the Cowell sprinters. He looks to prefer artificial surfaces, and his win at Wolverhampton was a game one on only his second run for this stable, having transferred from John Best, whose string haven't had a good couple of years. The selection was never well placed when fancied at Lingfield last time out, Hannah Nunn is an apprentice I admire but she was stuck wide and didn't get any breaks in running. The horse was also too keen early on. Michael J. Murphy is an absolute steal for his 5lb claim and it is interesting he gets the ride tonight. You have to think Cowell has Dubai in mind and wants to get this horses' rating up above the minimum ceiling, which is around OR90 last I heard. There are question marks about many of these, and from a good draw I think Arctic Lynx has room for improvement off his current handicap mark. The 5lb claim is the icing on the cake and with normal luck in running he should go very close.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +25.70 / year: +5.80

Wednesday 28th November 2012

I'm not sure the race panned out well for Silver Wind this afternoon, he ran well but finished only third.

One selection for Wednesday Evening.

6.00 Kempton Communicator 5pts win @ 9/2 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, Independents, guaranteed)

Communicator has improved no end towards the back end of this flat season, and I find it interesting his trainer keeps him going to contest this listed contest. He is closely matched with Art Scholar, but I think that rival is better on turf and I am prepared to give Communicator a chance to prove himself on the all weather. He ran fairly well here on his only polytrack start, but he has improved no end since and Andrew Balding's horses tend to go well here - the trainer boasts a very useful 16% strike rate at this track. I'm not sure Harris Tweed is the horse he once was, and I am also happy to take on Media Hype on this surface. In fact I think both look very short and the main danger could be Roxy Flyer. As a progressive horse who has posted lifetime best Racing Post Ratings on his last three starts, the selection is recommended at a price which looks a bit too generous.

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Afternoon Bet:

Just one selection for this afternoon. We may have an evening bet for Kempton, details either way before 3.30pm.

1.10 Wolverhampton Silver Wind 5pts win @ 6/1 (VC Bet, Paddy Power, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)

Ran a really nice race at Doncaster last time out, travelling well on ground that was probably too slow for his liking, as evidenced by the slow time of the race. Silver Wind returns to polytrack today off a mark of OR60 which he is well capable of winning off, and he has the assistance of the excellent Graham Gibbons in the saddle. Alan McCabe's horses seem to be running into their usual good winter form, and from stall 5 I think the selection looks overpriced in relation to Speightstowns Kid and Pelmanism. His recent form if probably stronger, and at the prices he merits backing as a triple course winner.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +29.70 / year: +9.80

Tuesday 27th November 2012

Poor stuff today, but one good looking bet.

3.00 Lingfield Pensnett Bay 5pts win @ 4/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 7/2 generally guaranteed)

Not sure about the favourite's ability to handle ground this testing and Pensnett Bay looks a nice price for one proven on heavy ground. The selection ran a much better race on seasonal debut than his finishing position suggests, and that was a better contest than todays. I think he is overpriced in relation to the favourite and his sire Karinga Bay has an extremely strong record with his progeny on soft and heavy ground.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +39.70 / year: +19.80