Thursday 12th December 2013

A nice winner this afternoon.

One for this evening.

5.50 Kempton Artemis 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed, 28/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

(Total stake 4pts)

The bookmakers have this at the mercy of the favourite Dutchartcollector, who has been well punted and looks a fairly typical handicap set up, typical enough of his stable. However, I don't think he is any sort of certainty even in such a low grade contest, and I'm inclined to take him on. Conrad Allen did well last winter from only a few runners, and he tended to have his horses ready first time up - Azma won on debut, Rouge Nouage on his second start, with a break of a couple of months after his first start. That would suggest Artemis might be ready to put her best foot forward this evening, as would the retaining of Andrea Atzeni as jockey. The selection showed a glimmer of promise at this track over six furlongs on her second start, travelling keenly off a very slow pace and going on well at the finish having been outpaced in the straight. Her pedigree is a mixture of speed and stamina - sire Marju tends to get milers and middle distance horses, while there is more speed on the dam's side including some all weather influence. If the selection has progressed and learned to race more evenly during the 88 days she has been absent, I don't see any reason why she shouldn't be involved here off a mark of OR55. She is just as likely to bomb out, and this could well go down as a dud call, but the stable did have big priced winners last winter and they don't often back their horses. 28/1+ is too big in this company.

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Afternoon bets:

After the loss of two good cards yesterday, we thankfully have some excellent jumps racing today and indeed for the rest of the week. We have three interests this afternoon, and possible evening bets to follow before 4.00pm.

1.50 Newcastle Zaru 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

Zaru has some really good course form, and was in the process of adding to it when falling earlier this year over three miles. He fell on his next start, breaking a blood vessel in the process, but was much better at Carlisle last time out on his seasonal debut. He was made favourite that day and it seems connections feel he is better than OR118. He is dropped back to two miles today, but he won his maiden hurdle over course and distance and hasn't looked short of speed or jumping fluency when on song. This doesn't look a strong 0-120 and if he pops around okay, he is likely to be finishing much better than anything else. I don't think Rocking Blues deserves to be as short as he is, and Ballybriggan doesn't look a McCain stable star. Zaru is too big at double figure prices.

2.00 Huntingdon Captain Chris 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Captain Chris rarely lets the side down on seasonal debut, and I am happy to back him at odds of 4/1 for this contest, up against what I feel are inferior horses. It is only just under twelve months ago that he chased home Long Run in the King George, and although he gives weight away today I feel he is the horse most likely to win, yet he is not favourite. Riverside Theatre has been well backed, but I don't think he has ever been the same since that brutal tough Ryanair chase he won, and connections might just have bigger days in mind for him. Module has yet to show he is up to this class. Captain Chris has been much maligned, but the stable have been in decent form this season and another character of theirs, Wishful Thinking, ran a fine race at Aintree last weekend. The selection is too big at the odds and should be backed to win.

2.50 Newcastle Talkin Thomas 6pts win @ 11/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Nicky Richards has a decent record with hurdlers at Newcastle, but although he is 0-17 with chasers, I see no reason Talkin Thomas shouldn't win this. Nicky tends to send his chasers to the likes of Kelso, Hexham and Ayr, but with a mark of OR110 being awarded I would suggest he thought this was a gilt edged opportunity too hard to pass up. It looks a bad race. Get The Papers looks like Denman until his breathing problems flare up and he finished so weakly last time out when well punted that I just can't have him here. Radio Nowhere seems to go chasing out of desperation rather than any grand plan. Ben Akram hasn't impressed over fences thus far and Teo Vivo needs to brush up his jumping. I make the latter the danger, but Talkin Thomas was good enough to win a Novice Hurdle here, and he showed plenty of promise on his chase debut at Sedgefield, where one error probably cost him the race. He won't get many better opportunities than this and I think he should be a lot shorter than the current 11/2.

Profit & loss: day: +17.00 / month: +73.25 / year: +451.70

Tuesday 10th December 2013

A cracking card at Southwell this afternoon, and we have two selections.

1.30 Southwell Frontier Fighter 5pts win @ 13/2 (Coral, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)

Boasts some very good course form and I had him down as unlucky when behind Dubai Hills earlier this year. He was possibly over the top having been turned out quickly, and he also had to travel on the inside rail for much of the journey, eventually doing well in my book to finish where he did. Dubai Hills is actually on better terms with him today but I think the price discrepancy between the two is too great - they were sent off 6/4 and 9/4 that day, but they trade around 9/4 and 6/1 this morning and in my book that makes Frontier Fighter a bet. He is better drawn today, and has arguably had a better preparation for the racing, having had a quiet summer geared towards a winter campaign. He looks excellent value at the prices.

2.30 Southwell Frosty Friday 5pts win @ 15/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed)

Has often run very well at this track, but seemed to go sour for quite a while before bursting into life with a comfortable victory over course and distance last time out from a basement mark. That wasn't much of a race, but it was notable that she finished her race off much better than had been the case in the past, when she tended to travel well here before fading. The headgear is retained, and I don't think this is much better as a contest. She looks good value for one almost certain to run her race at 7/1+.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +56.25 / year: +434.70

Sunday 8th December 2013

Just one bet for today.

1.55 Kelso Royale Knight 5pts win @ 15/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

This looks a decent little contest. A notable feature of the race would be that the race will be run on fairly decent ground, and many of these horses would prefer winter ground, including Imperial Vic the favourite. I have a lot of respect for his trainer Michael Smith, but I feel his horse is worth taking on here with one representing another excellent trainer, Dr. Richard Newland. Royale Knight likes better ground being by King's Theatre, and he appears to have been trained with this race in mind looking at his hurdles preparation which has protected his chase mark. The selection stays well, and was impressive when winning at this course earlier this year. The trainer more or less suggests that this has been the plan ever since, and the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies is the icing on the cake. 7/1+ is too big and he looks well worth backing at these prices

Profit & loss: day: +35.00 / month: +66.25 / year: +444.70

Saturday 7th December 2013

Three selections for this afternoon. There is a small chance of an evening bet for Wolverhampton, details before 4.00pm either way.

12.50 Sandown Tante Sissi 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Stan James, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Tante Sissi was wisely pulled up on her chase debut at Wincanton recently, when a tired mistake probably cost her the race given how well she was jumping. I don't think she was given the best ride by Choc Thornton, who allowed her to bowl along before slowing the pace, which seemed to disappoint her. She does go well fresh, so easing her and pulling her up before she had over exerted herself was the right thing to do, and you have to wonder if Choc had this race in the back of his mind. Connections would likely have mixed hurdling and novice chasing this season, and Tante Sissi looks well handicapped off OR125 for a horse with some very good course form. Her bumper second behind Swincombe Flame sticks out, and she always seems to run well at the track. Provided she settles ok and isn't feeling the effects of her Wincanton sprawl, she should go close and looks overpriced at the odds.

2.15 Wetherby Deepsand 4pts win @ 15/2 (Sporting Bet, 7/1 generally guaranteed)

This doesn't look a strong contest for the grade, and with Tim Easterby's recent runners performing better, Deepsand gets the vote here. His owner Trevor Hemmings likes having winners at the track, and the selection's sixth last time out came in a better race. He performed better than the finishing position suggests, because he got very buzzy early on when the first hurdle came up quickly and he had to fiddle his way over it. The horse never really got into a rhythm after that and probably did well to finish where he did. I find it interesting the selections has attracted some support this morning; the race looks weak with no standout candidate, and Zaplamation looks unlikely to get the strong pace he needs. Deepsand is reunited with a jockey who knows him well, the track will suit, and he is overpriced at the odds.

2.25 Sandown Deep Trouble 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Ben Case is a trainer I respect, and he seems to have brought on Deep Trouble gradually with a view to a handicap hurdles campaign this season. He excelled himself at cheltenham last time out when second to an Irish hotpot, clear of the rest, and I don't think the stiff finish suited such a strong travelling horse. Sandown's tighter track will suit and he won't mind the slightly less stiff finish here either. The booking of Leighton Aspell, who is riding arguably better than at any point in his career, is a positive, and at 9/1 he looks too big as opposed to the favourite, who looks to have a lot to prove despite being one of the Champion trainer's string he doesn't necessarily look well handicapped and it short enough first time out.

Profit & loss: day: +21.25 / month: +31.25 / year: +409.70

Friday 6th December 2013

Just one for this evening.

7.00 Wolverhampton My Son Max 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

MY Son Max has raced eleven times on polytrack, and has won three of those starts, continuing to look progressive on the surface and leaving the impression that he might still be well handicapped. He has gone well fresh in the past and has won  his last two starts at this course. He is drawn well in stall three, and should get a good tow into the contest, particularly if Equitania decides to take them along. Some of his form from earlier this year looks superior to that which has been achieved by the horses who are guaranteed to be fit, and the suggestion is that he is priced up here with his absence and the change of stable taken into consideration. Michael Blake has been getting winners, though, and given that the selection doesn't always need a race to show his best, he is taken to cause a minor shock at a decent price.

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Afternoon bets:

One selection for this afternoon, at least one evening bet will follow.

3.05 Lingfield Glastonberry 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Bet Victor, 888 Sport, 12/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt @ Betfair SP - E/W 3rd

The weights and measures merchants have concluded that Glastonberry can't win here, having been 1 1/4 lengths behind Novellen Lad last time out. However, she has placed in the first three on 14 of her 20 all weather starts and still looks progressive and unexposed off OR76. She also seems to be a winter horse, having run up a sequence of good performances this time last year, which is always worth looking out for with mares in particular. In addition, that last run came after a 43 day break, which is long enough for a sprinter. She is only 21 days off the track today and that run along with the fact that she might just be in better condition given the time of year might be enough to see her turn in an improved performance. She is drawn better too, in stall five here versus stall eleven last time out, and is 4lb better off with Novellen Lad. The booking of Hayley Turner puts me off a little, because she has been off a few weeks and it can take time to get into the rhythm of these sprint handicaps, but prices of 12/1+ more than make up for any question marks and I think she rates the value bet of the afternoon.

Profit & loss: day: -1.00 / month: +10.00 / year: +398.45

Wednesday 4th December 2013

One selection for Wednesday Evening.

4.50 Kempton Fiftyshadesfreed 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A decent little nursery. Fiftyshadesfreed looks overpriced here as the horse who seems to be improving and has no concerns over fitness, attitude or the suitability of the track. I'm not too keen on the Gosden horse (tongue tie, possible breathing issues) or the Meehan horse (flashed tail last time, unsold at the sales recently) and I think the race won by Castle Combe was fairly average. I thought the selection was pulling out more close home against Mersad last time out and I think it is likely he will do the same again this evening. The step up to a mile looks as if it will suit, and a 4lb rise for that last time out win does not look excessive. The price discrepancy here is too great and the 5/1 should be taken.

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Afternoon bets:

Just one selection. Evening bets for Kempton will follow before 4.00pm.

2.00 Lingfield Another Try 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Ran in a much better contest than this on penultimate run under today's pilot Luke Morris and acquitted himself well, not beaten far. This looks akin to a class drop to me and unless Barbados Bob has recovered quickly from a hard race nine days ago, I think Another Try can top the rest of them. He didn't get the clearest of runs last time out and although he is drawn wide, the return of Morris is a huge bonus and I'd hope he can get a nice midfield sit. Double figures are too big.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +11.00 / year: +399.45

Tuesday 3rd December 2013

Very average fare today, and we have just one interest.

2.10 Wolverhampton Oratorio's Joy 5pts win @ 5/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed) - WON

Oratorio's Joy seems to like it at Wolverhampton, and is an uncomplicated, strong travelling filly who still seems to be improving late into her three year old season. She is closely matched with Fresa here off 4lb better terms than when they last met, and she may have come on in terms of conditioning too, given that that run came after a two month absence. She has the assistance of Rob Hornby in the saddle here and given that this is a hands and heels event, she makes more sense as a strong traveller than Fresa does as one who has needed plenty of encouragement from the saddle. The price discrepancy appears too big to me and she looks the bet of the day at 5/1.

Profit & loss: day: +25.00 / month: +21.00 / year: +409.45

Monday 2nd December 2014

Just one selection for today.

5.50 Kempton Colourbearer 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

Posted his best effort for some time at Wolverhampton last time out when he rallied to finish a close second over six furlongs. The formbook suggests at first glance that he is something of a Wolverhampton specialist, but he reared on his only visit to Kempton and that effort is probably best forgiven. I think there is a likely strong pace on here, with Burnhope likely to go on from his low draw and Bapak Bangsawan and Indian Affair also likely to race prominently. That should suit the strong travelling Colourbearer, who will have every assistance in the saddle from the excellent Adam Kirby. I'm quite surprised at double figure odds and he looks the bet of the day at the prices.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: -4.00 / year: +398.45

Saturday 30th November 2013

A fantastic day's racing. We have two races of interest, and there's a small chance of an evening bet at Wolverhampton. Details on that either way before 4.00pm.

2.40 Newcastle Mr. Moss 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

We backed Mr. Moss at doncaster last season and were unlucky not to collect. He was really keen that day but showed he stays well, pulling well clear with Quentin Collonges who defeated Same Difference on his next start in the Bet 365 Gold cup. The pair were eight lengths clear of the third, and Mr. Moss is arguably well handicapped off just 4lb higher at OR136. He made his comeback with a spin over hurdles in October, and had no more than a pop around Cheltenham last time under Paddy Mullins, who wasn't hard on him. The selection almost certainly needs a flat, galloping left handed track to show his best and I have a feeling this race has been his target since the summer. Newcastle should suit him down to the ground, and the booking of Paul Moloney is important too - he knows the horse inside out and will be aware that he won't do much in front. I can't see anything of the potential of Quentin Collonges in here, and with the ground right for him I feel everything is in place for a big run. Anything in double figures is far too big, I make him an 8/1 shot.

3.00 Newbury Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f110y

Highland Lodge 3pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Invictus 3pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)

A really exciting renewal of this top class race, even if it lacks an outstanding candidate. Although the race might end up with a shock result, I've gone through the candidates with a fine tooth comb and unless Opening Batsman rediscovers his best form, I can't see any of the bigger priced horses figuring. So we simply pick the horse with the best recent form, and the horse with the most class and best handicap mark from the unexposed ones who have been targeted at the race.

 Highland Lodge represents a stable who could not be going any better, and his recent form around Wincanton has been franked. He was very tired at the end of that race, but has had five weeks to recover and if he doesn't bounce, he is handicapped to win this. His jockey Leighton Aspell has been having something of an Indian Summer in the saddle, and at double figures he looks the sensible bet.

Invictus represents a trainer who is a dab hand at bringing horses back to perform to their best in handicaps. The stable have been quiet enough of late but it seems they've targeted this day for a long time, as many of their better and best are getting a run out this afternoon. The trainer has gone to a lot of trouble in sending the horse to Newbury for two racecourse gallops, and played a blinder earlier in the week by suggesting the horse has it to do after such an absence. It would have been easy to send him out late last season, but it appears the lure of an extremely good handicap mark resulted in connections aiming for this contest, and you have to feel that this day has been the plan for a long time. I'm not overly keen on the jockey booking, as I do feel Choc Thornton has lost the spark in the saddle he had a couple of years ago, saying that he remains capable enough to pop the selection around and it may well be the handicapper has done enough to help him.

Of the others, I have a class issue with Our Father and Rocky Creek given their respective handicap marks, and I'm against Lord Windermere. I think our Irish horses pick up some bad habits in small fields plodding around Leopardstown et al, and the fast pace and flat track tends to find them out in this race. Coupled with the late replacement of the apprentice jockey with a pilot who probably isn't familiar with the horse, and is 1/19 at Newbury in the last five years (0/6 over fences), and he is not a betting proposition for me at the prices.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: -63.05 / year: +402.45

Friday 29th November 2013

One for this evening. Please look out for potential price alerts for tomorrow, released tonight.

6.25 Wolverhampton George Fenton 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Skybet, 15/2 Bet Victor, Coral, Independents, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd @ 10/1

Conor Dore's stable seem to be hitting form after a period in the doldrums, and his George Fenton is developing into a very decent all weather performer, as evidenced by his latest run behind a big improver Jay Bee Blue. The selection is a hold up horse who travels well and really finishes his races strongly, so the presence of the likes of Ace Master, Smalljohn and Piceno in here amongst others who like to go forward early is a bonus for the selection and should see the race set up for him. He posted an RPR of 81 which equals his lifetime best and having won five times this year already, he is arguably lucky to be sitting on a handicap mark of just OR72 - and having been dropped 1lb after his last run. I can't see why the favourite is so short here and I'd be inclined to agree with the odds compilers at Betfair Sportsbook, who have the selection down as a 5/1 shot. 7/1+ is too big, and we'll have a decent each-way and win stake.

Profit & loss: day: +3.50 / month: -51.05 / year: +414.45

Thursday 28th November 2013

Just one for Kempton.

7.05 Kempton Generalyse 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 18/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

Generalyse disappointed last time out at Southwell, but that of course was on fibresand and the progeny of his sire Cadeaux Genereaux's stats aren't great on that surface. That run is forgiven, and we are left with a progressive four year old who has run respectably over this course and distance, and has won on polytrack too. His Leicester win was a lifetime best, and the rating he posted at Southwell matched his best despite conditions probably not suiting. There is every reason to expect further improvement and he looks too big at 16/1 here. He has a wide draw to overcome, but the excellent Jim Crowley is booked and I would hope a top course rider can offset that disadvantage.

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Afternoon bets:

One selection for this afternoon, possible evening bets will follow for Kempton before 4.00pm.

3.15 Newbury Get Back In Line 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

The form of the Catterick Novice hurdle won by Get Back In Line has worked out very well, and although that was over two miles three, he travelled really well and certainly didn't look short of gears. He is only a five year old by Milan, so he should have improved since following a decent break, and it will be absolutely no surprise should he prove a lot better than his current mark. Bookmakers seem to have priced this race up with the usual wonderment of whether this horse will be trying today or is being lined up for a target somewhere in the future. With five good rides at Uttoxeter and the 10-5 probably a struggle, it is no surprise Richie McLernon rides today and I would suggest that connections will be looking to get his handicap mark up a few pounds to get him into the likes of the big December handicap hurdles. OR127 doesn't guarantee that, but the horse looks miles better than that already and I can see him improving plenty today. I'm not a fan of Chatterbox or Puffin Billy, who both have well being to prove and have shown their hand to the handicapper, and I'm going to go for potential over experience here. There is enough juice in a price of 5/1 to merit taking the chance - Johnjo O'Neill and David Pipe have arguably been the best English trainers this season so far and I don't see that factored into the selection's price. 

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -54.55 / year: +410.95

Wednesday 27th November 2013

Just one for this evening.

5.30 Kempton Illegal Action 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, guaranteed, Sporting Bet)

This isn't a good maiden based on the form of those to have given their running so far - when the likes of Frangipanni (as short as 11/4) and Nova Champ (as short as 9/2) are trading short it give you an idea of the relatively low standard of the event for a Kempton maiden. The obvious first time out horses have been backed, with Glorious Empire now favourite and Spring Fling generally as low as 4/1. The bookmakers seem to have written off Illegal Action as a no hoper here, but I quite like his profile. There is an obvious positive in his breeding: sire Smart Strike's progeny have a very strong record on this surface, with a 19% strike rate and actual versus expected ratio of 1.18 suggesting they are significantly underbet, compared to a 12% strike rate on turf and an a/e ratio of 0.91. That means we can expect significant improvement from him this evening for the surface, but his breathing is a bigger issue. He showed plenty of speed on his first and second starts, and ran really well despite looking green on his debut. He never really looked a relaxed horse, though, and it is interesting he has been left off for 84 days. You would imagine he has had work done on his wind in the interim and first time back from his short break is probably the best time to catch him. It is interesting connections have taken the trouble to book Andrea Atzeni, who has had an excellent year and has improved vastly. The horse has no problems breaking alertly, he should improve for the surface, and if his wind doesn't bother him I think he can win this, He represents a stable who had a brilliant year with juveniles; this horse cost them 30,000GNS as a yearling and I don't think he is a handicap project. They haven't had many runners lately and I find it really interesting they have kept this horse on the go, clearly with polytrack in mind over the winter. Anything around 20/1+ is too big and he should be backed each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -45.55 / year: +419.95

Tuesday 26th November 2013

Just one for this evening.

5.20 Wolverhampton Fieldgunner Kirkup 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

David Barron tends to place his winter string effectively and he wins some good races at this track with the few horses he sends here. The selection is something of a seven furlong specialist who looks well handicapped off a mark of OR81 and may well improve on this surface over the winter. He was really on his unlucky on his last run here, badly hampered early on by a horse whose saddle had slipped, and he lost momentum and his position as a result. He was looked after and allowed to come home in his own time, and may be seen to better effect this evening with a clear run. He tends to travel strongly and the likely strong pace here should help him, as will a good draw in stall 4.

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Afternoon bets:

Two selections at Southwell, a possible evening bet at Wolverhampton to follow before 4.00pm.

12.40 Southwell Stun Gun 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed) - 

Stun Gun cost £20,000 at the sales as recently as August, and strikes me as an unusual purchase for the Shaw yard, who generally come by cheaply bought horses and end up with the odd decent handicapper. I don't know much about the owner, but this would appear to be a situation where they're looking for a decent horse who will win races sooner rather than later, and as such I'd expect this horse to be ready to do himself justice first time out. Shaw has an excellent record at Southwell over the years, and often brings his horses to the track to gallop. He has a 7/36 19% strike rate with three year olds here over the last five years returning a profit of +91.88 to level stakes. The selection looks a very well put together horse from the picture on Shaw's website, and his breeding is interesting - he is by Medicean (18% strike rate here) and is a half sister to the useful Princess Taylor. This doesn't look a strong contest at all, and although we're taking a chance, the price looks too generous first time out to resist.

1.10 Southwell Razin' Hell 2pts each-way @ 9/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - E/W 2nd @ 10/1

The favourite is clear on figures here but Southwell doesn't play by the usual numbers and having watched Resolute run at Doncaster a couple of weeks ago I wonder is his name merited. He has a high head carriage and ducked in behind Jazz fairly quickly when asked to lengthen, and I don't think he is one for maximum faith at odds on. Alan McCabe has booked Luke Morris for Razin' Hell, who had shown nothing until appearing here last week, when he was unlucky not to win. He also almost defied the coffin box stall 1 over six furlongs on what was his course debut - meaning his performance must be marked up. He has it to find on the book, and must prove his stamina for seven furlongs, but Resolute has stall 1 here and Razin' Hell a much better position in stall 5. He has no questions to answer regarding the surface and I have a feeling the others might not see which way he's gone until it's too late.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -40.55 / year: +424.95

Monday 25th November 2013

Two for today at Wolverhampton.

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 4/1 and 4/1 generally guaranteed.

4.00 Wolverhampton Delightful Sleep 4pts win @ 9/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Delightful Sleep was unlucky last time out, repeatedly blocked in his run but also forced to race on the rail which is not where you want to be at Wolverhampton just lately. The selection is drawn in stall 1 today, but George Baker is booked in place of Eoin Walsh today and nobody has been riding Wolverhampton better lately in my view. He seems to be aware of the bias that exists and is happy to hold his horses up just off the rail, and bring them wide into the straight. I'm hoping Delightful Sleep gets that kind of ride today and he is probably still unexposed off this mark if the breaks come his way.

5.00 Wolverhampton Slinky McVelvet 4pts win @ 4/1 (Betfred, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 7/2 generally guaranteed)

Had something to find with the principals when winning a claimer last time out but was well backed and, having travelled strongly, won well in the end and was well backed. It may be she has an affinity with this surface and she certainly improved for it. I don't like the look of the favourite here, and I find myself wondering why the selection is as big as 4/1. The Appleby horse also has to prove himself on the surface, and with no questions to answer about the surface I'm backing the filly to follow up her win under a penalty at what looks a good price.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -34.55 / year: +430.95

Saturday 23rd November 2013

A cracking day's racing and we have three races of interest. We may also have evening bets, details before 5.00pm either way. As you all know Ascot is one of my favourite tracks on the flat, and it's second only to Cheltenham over jumps for me. No surprise that our selections all run there.

1.00 Ascot Fiddler's Bid 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Fiddler's Bid represents a stable in fine form, and it is interesting his trainer sends him here on his chase debut. He clearly feels there is juice in his hurdles handicap mark of OR124, and given his string's 15% strike rate in handicap chases (a level stakes loss of only -£1.50 backed blind) you would have to think this trainer's placement deserves plenty of credit. His chasers also have a better strike rate than his hurdlers (15% versus 13%) and some of the selection's hurdles form gives him a great chance here. A bumper win here, close third to Ballytober here in a maiden hurdle, and a second to the very decent (potentially high class chaser in my opinion) Uxizandre were the highlights. Chasing was always likely to be his game, and there doesn't seem to be any superstars lurking in here. 7/1 looks a nice price in my view and I think he is likely to be ready first time up.

1.30 Ascot

Florafern 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Scholastica 4pts win @ 7/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed) - WON

In hindsight Florafern had a hell of a task conceding 23lb to Tweedledrum in this race last year. She was only beaten a length and that rival went on to win twice more and ended the season rated 21lb higher. She goes well fresh and with her trainer's string in good form, she is a no brainer here from just 2lb higher. I make this race between two mares, and I don't mind shelling out a similarly decent stake on Tom Symond's Scholastica. Symonds trained Tweedledrum and obviously targets these mares hurdles (he had Midnight Belle, who landed a nice touch for us in late January, entered here at the five day stage; she has been rerouted to the Listed hurdle at Kempton on Monday). She goes well fresh too on last year's evidence - indeed she might be the type who doesn't stand too much racing as she did lose her form towards the spring of this year. She looks well handicapped on some of that novice form, and as a six year old by Old Vic, there is likely further improvement to come during this winter's campaign.

3.15 Ascot Saved By John 4pts win @ 11/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Ascot on the flat and over jumps generally suits strong travellers, and Tim Vaughan's Saved By John ticks the boxes in that category. He ran a fine race at Aintree on his seasonal reappearance, and had the field well and truly cooked turning for home until he was caught by a race fit, progressive rival, the pair well clear. He drops back in trip by three furlongs this afternoon, but he is such a good mover that I think it may be a positive. If his bold jumping doesn't cause him problems, he should be finishing strongly here. I think Drumshambo was tired at the end of win here last time out, and I'm not surprised he has drifted out to 4/1. Richard Johnson rides this track well (13% strike rate) and I think 11/2 is a decent price for a horse who looks to me as though he is on a very fair handicap mark and open to progression.

Profit & loss: day: +16.00 / month: -24.55 / year: +440.95

Friday 22nd November 2013

One selection for this evening.

6.10 Wolverhampton Attain 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 9/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

Attain is 0-17, but runs his best races over this course and distance and was probably sent to the front too soon last time out, when he matched a rival whom he would have been 3lb better off with in a handicap, until the final hundred yards. This race looks fairly well loaded with pace and I'm hoping this good 5lb claimer will choose to hold Attain up a bit longer and bring him with a wide, late run. The selection is drawn in stall 9, which I feel is a major advantage because I think there is a bias against the inside rail at Wolverhampton just lately - horses that race close to the rail just aren't winning. Timing will be everything here, but the selection appears to be getting his act together, and I can't fault his attitude or handicap mark based on that last run. 8/1+ is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: -40.55 / year: +424.95

Thursday 21st November 2013

Just one for this evening.

7.40 Kempton Good Authority 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, 15/2 Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, all guaranteed)

Good Authority is a relatively lightly raced six year old of 26 runs, who is admirably consistent on all surfaces and doesn't seem to run many bad races. He p[osted lifetime best Racing Post Ratings of 92,94,95 on three consecutive runs last summer at Goodwood and Ascot, before his form tailed off very slightly. He has been given a break since and has often run well when fresh in the past. He is a seven furlong specialist and has won twice over the trip on the all weather including over course and distance.He posted an RPR of 91 from a mark of OR84 over course and distance when fourth to Numeral around this time last year, but I don't see any reason why he can't improve again this winter on the all weather. I find it really interesting he gets in here off a mark of OR82, which is definitely one he can defy, and I think if he gets the decent pace he requires he should go very close to winning. That is not guaranteed here, but at the prices he looks a cracking bet and this doesn't look the strongest 0-90 - I don't see many unexposed sorts in here. A draw in stall four is fine and Ted Durcan rides. 7/1+ is too big and we'll have a decent stake.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: -36.55 / year: +428.95

Wednesday 20th November 2013

Just one additional selection today.

5.30 Kempton Truancy 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Paddy Power, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

This isn't a strong looking maiden when you actually look at the form each horse has achieved, as opposed to sales prices and pedigrees. A few of these might not live up to their price tags, but Truancy has at least seen the track already and I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt based on that appearance. He showed plenty of speed and looked a really nice mover, but seemed to lose his action and fell in a hole rather quickly after, and was soon eased. He has been off 75 days and I would suggest he has had some sort of minor problem. It is interesting Karl Burke (who got him from Alan Berry) sends him down to Kempton, and Robert Winston is booked to ride. He is bred to go on this surface being a half brother to none other than Delcaration Of War, and his action suggests he should enjoy it. The whole profile of this horse is unusual and I'm not sure if there was some sort of skulduggery going on because he doesn't seem the typical type to be trained by Alan Berry. Either way, he holds a leading chance this evening if he puts it all together, and he looks too big at double figure prices.

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Afternoon bets:

Just one for this afternoon - evening bets will follow before 4.00pm.

2.30 Lingfield If So 5pts win @ 7/2 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 10/3 generally guaranteed)

A competitive looking sprint handicap but, all things considered, If So's claims look excellent here. She is 2/2 over course and distance, and posted a lifetime best last time out at Kempton in a race not run to suit where the winner got first run on her under an excellent Adam Kirby ride. There is plenty of pace on here, anda good draw in stall four should mean she only needs normal luck in running to unleash her turn of foot at the end of the contest. I think this is a really good filly who should still be progressive off OR91, and could be better than a handicapper. It wouldn't surprise me to see her at Royal Ascot next year, given her trainer's record with this type of horse, and I would make her closer to 5/2 to win today.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -29.55 / year: +435.95

Tuesday 19th November 2013

A nice winner for us earlier.

Our hands tend to be a little tied at this time of year with racing starting so early - the markets have only just settled and bets have to be sent within a short timeframe. Today I'm adding an additional selection which was on our shortlist this morning, we may have further bets before3.30pm for Wolverhampton.

3.40 Southwell Putin 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

This stayed on the shortlist this morning because I wasn't sure about Phil McEntee's stable form, but he had Two No Bids run really well in the last, looking very fit and only getting caught close home. Putin becomes a really decent bet if we know he is ready to go this afternoon. The selection has actually won here over trips ranging from seven furlongs to a mile and a half, but he improved this summer for the drop to sprinting and he has no trouble with five furlongs these days. He is three pounds below his last winning mark of OR61 now, following a couple of below par efforts, but his last run here was ok from stall one over a trip which probably stretches him. He is up against quite a few professional losers this afternoon and if he can get close to the lead from a decent draw in stall nine, I think he will take some pegging back. His favourite headgear combination returns and he looks big in relation to the likes of Hannah's Turn, who hasn't showed anything since March (including on this surface).

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Afternoon bets:

Two for this afternoon, evening bets will follow before 3.30pm.

12.10 Southwell Like Clockwork 4pts win @ 7/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

Like Clockwork is by Rail Link, whose stock are very effective on polytrack, but about whose progeny there is very limited evidence available regarding performance on fibresand. Rail Link is on the Dansili line, though, and Dansili himself has produce some notable fibresand performers. There is promise on the dam's side that the selection will act on the surface: he is related to Zenarinda who travelled really well here on a couple of occasions and is twice a runner up at the track. Like Clockwork has a couple of good all weather runs to his name, notably a strong travelling win at Kempton last year, and given that horse and stable are back in decent form, he appeals as the type to have a profitable winter on the all weather. Stall 12 wouldn't bother me particularly, and he is ridden by a jockey who has been doing well for the stable just lately. This isn't a strong contest and 6/1+ is too big.

12.40 Southwell Chrissycross 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 9/1 Bet Victor, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

Chrissycross looks a natural on this surface and both her runs here have been really strong, a wide margin winner of a maiden and a close second to Peter's Friend in October where the pair were well clear of some good fibresand horses. The selection is 8/1+ today where Peter's Friend is as low as 5/2 which looks all wrong to me. Chrissycross has the worst of the draw in stall one, which is a reverse of what happened last time when Peter's Friend defied stall 2 and being trapped on the inner to win, but I still think she is too big here. There is pace in the race with Maakir, Tenbridge and one or two others preferring to race prominently. This could set up for a closer, and Chrissycross is a strong travelling hold up horse who could benefit from a quiet ride. It won't be easy from stall one, but Robert Winston rides this track well and at the prices she looks a knocking bet.

Profit & loss: day: +24.25 / month: -24.55 / year: +440.95

Cheltenham Open Meeting 2013 - Day Three

Nice to get the big race winner yesterday, which put us ahead on the day. A second winner today would ensure a profitable meeting.

1:00 Mallard Pawnbrokers And Family Jewellers Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f

Selection: Timesishard 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 50/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 40/1 generally guaranteed)

Timesishard is a second season novice hurdler who is arguably unexposed at this trip, and has some decent form from last season including a third at Cheptsow in a race I expect to work out well. He represents a trainer who sent out a winning hurdler yesterday on seasonal debut, and I just think the selection is way overpriced at the odds here. This doesn't look the strongest of contests and Lieutenant Miller, who does nothing once he hits the front and isn't a stable star of Hendersons, is as short as 7/2. I can pick holes in the form of many of these; Sausalito Sunrise is a notable exception but his fitness must be taken on trust and at the prices, a small interest on a horse who I think is twice the price he should be might pay handsome dividends.

1:35 Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Sharp Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y

Not really a betting contest for me, but if I was asked to name the winner, The Liquidator would be top of my list. - WON

2:10 Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices´ Chase (Registered As The November Novices´ Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m

Anther race I wouldn't like to get involved in heavily. Dodging Bullets is a tentative nomination to land the spoils, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset. - WON

2:40 Shloer Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m

Selection: Kid Cassidy 4pts win @ 5/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed) - WON

Kid Cassidy ran really well behind Alderwood in the closing two mile handicap at the festival over course and distance here in March, and that form is taken to be enough to see him defeat Sire De Grugy here, in receipt of 10lbs. I think this will be a close run thing, but the favourite is Even money and Kid Cassidy five times the price. A.P. McCoy is booked and despite concerns in the racing press about the form of the Henderson stable, I am loathe to write his horses off based on a small sample size of runners, many of whom have been overbet anyway.

3:15 StanJames.com Greatwood Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y

Selections:

Sametegal 3pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)

Kashmir Peak 3pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed)

This doesn't look the strongest renewal of this contest, it lacks a potential superstar at the head of the market and the race may well go the way of a well handicapped, decent horse as opposed to something at the top of the weights as has been the case in recent years on more than on occasion. Sametegal carries 11-4 here; I was impressed with the manner of his victory on seasonal debut last time out. He was in front long enough and pulled out more (going away at the line) when asked. He was ridden as if he would come on for the run, and Paul Nicholls may have had this race in mind all along. Daryl Jacob rides this hurdles track really well and 11/1 is too big.

Kashmir Peak represents John Quinn, one of the best trainers of hurdlers around. He is lower in the weights and is a real potential lurker. He comes here off the back of a career best flat effort at Doncaster where he was unlucky to be pipped by Thomas Hobson (raced away from that rival), and the stable could not be in better form this autumn, Zaplamation landing a decent handicap hurdle at Wetherby for them yesterday. Dougie Costello is no stranger to Cheltenham (won the Triumph on Coutrywide Flame for Quinn) and anything in double figures looks too big.

3:50 Fairlawne - Festival Jockey Club Fine Dining Bumper (Standard Open NH Flat Race) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y

No bet here, but I've been quite impressed with Champagne At Tara thus far and he makes a certain amount of appeal at around 4/1.

Profit & loss: day: +11.00 / month: -48.80 / year: +416.70

Cheltenham Open Meeting Day Two

Another excellent card today, probably the highlight of the three days, and we'll hope for a better return than Friday.

12:40 JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Registered As The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y

Selection: Guitar Pete 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Guitar Pete has the excellent Brian Cooper in the plate and represents a trainer who is one of the best producers of top class hurdlers around. The selection's form looks very solid and his two battles with Lindenhurst represent the best early season Irish juvenile form in my view. It is hard to know just how good he is, but at the prices he is far too big in relation to Royal Irish Hussar. He shapes like a horse who will eat the hill for brunch, and we'll have a relatively small win only interest. Boylesports will give you your money back if he is second to the favourite.

1:15 Roy Blandford 65 Years At Cheltenham Novices´ Chase Cl2 3m110y

Non account bet: Shutthefrontdoor to win @ 5/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Not a race for big stakes but it should be really interesting to watch. I think African Gold is a little overbet in relation to Shutthefrontdoor, who was quite impressive and showed a good attitude on his chasing debut. He would be a token interest at the prices.

1:50 Murphy Group Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m3f110y

Selection: Goulanes 4pts win @ 11/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Goulanes goes well fresh, looks well handicapped, and represents a stable who obviously have a history of targeting this meeting. The opposition don't look that hot to me, and it looks the sort of race that a horse lined up for the race could win fairly handily. The likes of Spring Heeled and Godsmejudge have good form, but Goulanes looks the most likely to be ready for this test in my view. This looks like a stepping stone to the Hennessy and I think he'll be backed on course and take the beating.

2:30 Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f110y 

Selections:

Champion Court 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

John's Spirit 3pts win @ 9/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

For me this renewal comes down to the above two horses. Champion Court will be well suited by the way the weights are framed here and he is selected even off OR157 because he jumps so well, and has looked bordering on top class on occasion. He was probably bottomed by taking on Long Run in the King George last year, and it is the mark of a top trainer and horse that he managed to beat Menorah at Aintree in April. He'll have been freshened up since, and this looks like it has been his target for some time.

John's Spirit looks the potential fly in the ointment. He won really easily last month and looks very well handicapped. He is a second season chaser who may or may not have more improvement in him - it is really hard to tell how far he will go - but if he travels as well today in this better grade against better horses, he will certainly be thereabouts at the finish. If he is taken out of his comfort zone by the strong pace, you'll know he isn't up to the class. I think the race could set up for him and he merits backing as well as the Keighley horse.

3:00 Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f110y

Selection: Silver Eagle 4pts win @ 13/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Southfield Theatre is an excellent jumper of hurdles and a horse who I'll be following this year, but he takes a good grip of the bridle and I'm not sure this kind of test with a hill at the end of it will suit him. Silver Eagle represents a trainer whose string are in good form, who sent out a big priced outsider to finish second in the opener on yesterday's card. The selection was just behind Thomas Crapper last time out, that rival franked the form yesterday, and I would suggest there is further progression in Silver Eagle. He is too big at 13/2.

3:35 Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Hyde Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f

Non Account bet: Port Melon to win @ 4/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Not a race to bet in, but Paul Nicholls' Port Melon looks the part on paper and a successful U.K. debut looks a distinct possibility.

4:05 Ukash Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y

Non account bet: Legacy Gold to win @ 3/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Another one from the Pipe team. Legacy Gold probably has the best form in the book and, despite giving weight all around, should go close to winning here. Not a race I'd like to bet in, and the price is short enough for the type of contest, so it'll be a token suggestion only.

Profit & loss: day: +10.00 / month: -59.80 / year: +405.70

Cheltenham Open Meeting Day One

For those who have recently joined us, our service traditionally covers the big flat and jumps meetings with an analysis of each race on the card, and Cheltenham's Open Meeting is the first such fixture this National Hunt season. Account bets only should be followed, non account bets are intended as a guide and for those attending the meeting who want to get involved in each race.

Today's card looks excellent and should throw up multiple pointers for the season ahead.

1:05 Opus Energy Amateur Riders´ Handicap Chase Cl3 3m110y

Selection: Major Malarkey 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

I can't be having the favourite at 6/4 here given the fact that his form has all come on flat right handed tracks. He might be a cut above these, but at the prices I'm quite keen on Major Malarkey from a handicapping point of view. His trainer targets this race and it is highly encouraging that the selection's form figures on seasonal debut read 2512 - he clearly goes well fresh and he was able to post a figure of RPR137 this time last year. He has been largely overfaced in good company but this is a real drop in class for him and looks his most winnable opportunity in a while. His handicap mark has dropped to OR126 which gives him a real chance, and this 7lb claimer looks worth his allowance (has been riding a couple of winners and looks tidy). There are caveats, but they are factored into the price and in an ordinary race apart from the market leader, he looks worth backing.

1:35 Paddy Power Handicap Chase Cl2 2m CH4

Selection: Elenika 3pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

Interesting Venetia Williams paid £28,000 for this french bred from Paul Nicholls in the spring. He was probably overfaced last season but some of his form looks very solid and I wouldn't be surprised to see him improve for the summer on his back. Aiden Coleman seems to prefer him to Renard but it is hard to know. Elenika's form behind Fairy Rath at Ascot in April looks a cut above what is required here and this doesn't looks a particularly strong division - two mile handicappers tend to win in turn and this contest looks ripe for something well handicapped to improve. A mark of OR129 underestimates what Elenika achieved last season and he may well prove a shrewd buy.

2:05 Steel Plate And Sections Novices´ Chase Cl2 2m4f110y

Selection: The Romford Pele 3pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Oscar Whisky has to be taken on as a hurdler who has fallen once and has "not fluent" in his form figures on a few occasions. He is also an eight year old and I tend to oppose Novice Chasers who have been running for more than two years under the other code. The Romford Pele was a fast finishing second in a very good race at Chepstow on his chase debut, and he looked a much better horse than he was over hurdles. He jumped soundly and quickly in the main, and I got the impression a stiff finish would really see him come into his own. I'm not sure the second favourite here will handle the ground, and I like the selection even though he has plenty to find with the Henderson horse at the weights. He achieved a stone better than anything he did over hurdles at Chepstow and may just be a natural chaser.

2:40 David Johnson Memorial Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f 

Non account bet: Top Gamble to win @ 4/1 (Betfred, guaranteed, 7/2 generally guaranteed)

No bet in this race, but Top Gamble will have been laid out for this given the trainer's connection with David Johnson, and he might just be well handicapped too. Short at the prices but the likely winner in my view.

3:15 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Cl2 3m7f

Selection: Diamond Harry 3pts win @ 17/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

3:50 Countryside Raceday Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m110y

Nick Williams has done well with Maljimar down the years in these races, and it is interesting that horse went to France the other day, winning a similar event handily. Diamond Harry has taken to cross country racing quite well and he has to be of interest from a handicapping perspective here. He is not the horse of old, but he does stay well and the slower pace of these races will play into his hands in my view. James Reveley is a very good pilot, he knows the horse well having ridden him in Paris in June and in work since, and I think at the prices he is well worth taking a chance on. 8/1+ is too big.

Non Account bet: Quick Jack to win @ 9/4 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

No bet here but I do think Quick Jack could be an absolute handicap blot. Ruby Walsh takes the ride and I don't particularly want to take him on. If you're having a good day at the races, a small win interest might give you a return.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: -69.80 / year: +395.70