Wednesday 30th January 2013

Another big winner this afternoon, Midnight Belle was impressive and I hope most of you took the 22/1 early doors.

One smaller interest for this evening.

6.20 Kempton Boris The Bold 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, William Hill, Independents, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd 

On the basis of his penultimate run, Boris The Bold looks worth an interest here. He finished third behind Commercial, finishing best of all from off the pace and with the runner up franking the form with a comfortable success since, the selection looks worth persevering with. A flop last time out can be attributed to the Standard To Slow going at Kempton that day, I'm not sure the selection was comfortable on the surface and I'm happy to put it down to an off day. The fact that he is turned out relatively quickly suggests this was the case, and quotes of 14/1 about him winning this dire affair look like something of an over reaction. He has the worst draw to overcome, but he needs holding up and the booking of George Baker is a major positive.

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Afternoon Bet:

We took each-way money with Arabian Flight yesterday, but she was probably in front plenty soon enough and her early exertions told as she was run out of it close home. She is one to keep an eye on, I can't fault her attitude and she'll win soon.

We may have an evening bet, details released before 4.00pm. 

One for this afternoon:

2.40 Ludlow Midnight Belle 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

Has travelled into her races well on numerous occasions but better ground is what she wants in my view, she is selected today with Ludlow described as soft - it won't be anywhere near the bog like conditions she races on at Uttoxeter last time out and, off a 3lb lower mark, I expect her to get involved. She steps back three furlongs in trip which should not present a problem given the way she travels, and this does not look an especially competitive contest. Chances are she could fade late on again, but if she gets away with the ground there is enough ability there to see her pick up one of these races, certainly before the season is out.

Profit & loss: day: +75.30 / month: +64.31 / year: +64.31

Tuesday 29th January 2013

A big day yesterday with Lord Of The Dance winning at 16/1.

One selection for this afternoon.

4.30 Wolverhampton Arabian Flight 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Has stall 11 to overcome but Arabian Flight is progressive at a low level and represents a trainer who is really going places. This is her fifth start for Michael Appleby and he seems to have found the key to her, with her second place at Kempton five days ago her best performance yet. I don't think she has to lead so I'd be happy to see her tucked in in midfield here, a relatively big field means an even pace should be assured. I think there is a bit to work with from a handicap mark of OR59, and there is no out and out progressive horse in this field to be afraid of. 9/1 is a decent price, around two points bigger than I had expected.

Profit & loss: day: +1.50 / month: -10.99 / year: -10.99

Monday 28th January 2013

1.20 Kempton Mudaawen 4pts win @ 5/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, guaranteed)

Represents a stable who have had an unusually quiet winter but are just coming into form with two recent winners. The selection caught the eye with late run a couple of times in maidens last summer, and although ditched by Hamdan Al Maktoum, it is interesting Mark Johnston retained him and breeding very much suggests artificial surfaces are where he will thrive. A handicap mark of OR65 does not overburden him and if he is fit and ready to go, then I think his price is too big. Camachoice looks a bit quirky and is probably bred for further, while Derwentwater is very moderate despite his connections. Take Mudaawem at the guaranteed 5/1.

3.40 Wolverhampton Lord Of The Dance 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (VC Bet, 12/1 generally guaranteed) - WON @16/1

Lord Of The Dance has form turned out quickly and travelled much better than his finishing position suggested on Saturday at this track. The extended mile stretches him around here and it probably didn't help that he saw plenty of daylight - generally he likes to come from behind off a strong pace. The drop back to seven furlongs will suit him this afternoon and there is pace in the race which might set this up for him. I made him an 8/1 shot on my tissue, double figures is too big.

Profit & loss: day: +54.40 / month: -12.49 / year: -12.49

Sunday 27th January 2013

A cracking card at Leopardstown this afternoon and we have one bet.

1.25 Leopardstown Our Vinnie 3pts each-way 6/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP. - E/W 3rd

A really interesting renewal of a race that has thrown up some very decent winners down the years. Pont Alexandra is the obvious starting point, but there are two negatives I can pick out in the case against him today. Firstly, he got it all his own way at Navan, Ruby was allowed to set the pace he wanted and simply wind things up from the front. Don Cossack clearly wasn't himself that day and the merits of the form are open to question. Secondly, he jumped to his right on a number of occasions and it is anyone's guess how that will affect him when he is under real pressure. This is a better field than the one that lined up at Navan, and I think Mullins thought it was a bit of a soft touch Grade 1 bar the favourite last time. Our Vinnie is our each-way selection against the favourite on ground he handles well. He has stamina in abundance and there was a touch of class about the way he travelled last time out despite the winning margin. Connections have taken the trouble to book Barry Geraghty this afternoon, they won this race in 2008 with Lizkennett and the jockey has won this race three times in the last six years. We'll have part of our stake on at what should be an inflated Betfair SP, our stake will be returned once the selection finishes in the first three.

Profit & loss: day: -0.40 / month: -66.89 / year: -66.89

Saturday 26th January 2013

A fantastic card at Cheltenham this afternoon, and it is the first time in a while that we've been able to get stuck into top quality National Hunt racing.

We have three selections on a busy afternoon. We'll use Betfair SP in places since the markets are likely to be strong.

1.15 Cheltenham Quincy Des Pictons 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes, 22/1 Generally guaranteed), AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Enjoys getting his toe in and with a going stick reading of 4.6 released at 9.30am, he'll have conditions to suit this afternoon. The selection ran a nice race here at last year's festival when 7/20 behind Hunt Ball in the Byrne Group Plate, and although he was well beaten, the ground was far too quick to have seen him at his best. His third on reappearance behind Quartz De Thaix looked a reasonable effort, and there is every chance he simply bounced at Haydock in December - I thought he should have fared a little bit better and he ran below his handicap mark. He should be fit and ready to do himself justice today, and with conditions to suit he makes plenty of appeal on an each-way basis at the prices.

2.25 Cheltenham Midnight Chase 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 2pts win @ Betfair SP

Many of these are using this race as a stepping stone to March, whether in terms of fitness (Imperial Commander) or in terms of sussing out stamina issues and deciding which race to go for (Grand Crus, Hunt Ball). I don't like backing horses in those circumstances, and despite slight reservations about the ground, last year's winner Midnight Chase is selected as a horse who is likely to be primed with today in mind. He has won three times on heavy ground, albeit in lesser company, and my feeling is he might just get away with it today on a track he loves. He ran really well at Wetherby on his reappearance, posting a 160 RPR which will be good enough to run a place here, and I don't think Leopardstown will have suited him last time out. We'll back him each-way and win, if he runs a place we cover our stake.

3.35 Cheltenham Kauto Stone 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A fascinating race. Paul Nicholls has previous when it comes to sending chasers back hurdling, and Grade 1 winning chaser Kauto Stone is selected at a decent price to upset the applecart here and outstay Oscar Whisky. The race doesn't look that deep, for me the top four in the market all hold chances of sorts but my feeling is Alan King is protecting Walkon's chase handicap mark for a tilt at the big three mile handicap on the first day of the festival. That leaves me with the potential non-stayer Oscar Whisky, Reve De Sivola and Kauto Stone. Kauto Stone's defeat of First Lieutenant at Down Royal looks very smart form now, and I'm inclined to give him a chance at this different discipline. Ruby Walsh rides this hurdles course better than anyone else in my view, and at the prices I think this is a bit of a no brainer. We'll play win only.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -66.49 / year: -66.49

Friday 25th January 2013

Two interests for this afternoon and a possible evening selection - details to follow before 4.00pm. We enter a much busier phase from this afternoon and I expect a very, very dreary month to come to a profitable climax.

1.30 Lingfield Sherjawy 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

For a horse of moderate ability, Sherjawy's attitude cannot be faulted and a win record of one in eleven after 122 starts, or one in nine after 82 all weather starts, is something his connections can be very proud of. He has not won since March 2011 and went off the boil for quite a while, but he returned to form earlier this month with a second placed finish over course and distance behind the progressive Charming. He was turned out quickly two days later and didn't run to the same level, but another eight days later he confirmed the recent promise at Kempton with a close third behind Whipphound. He was really keen over the six furlongs there, showing that he has lost none of his speed, and given that his last four wins have been over five furlongs I make the step back in trip a positive here - indeed two of those four wins have been over this course and distance. He is quite well drawn in stall 1 and I would hope Beach Candy goes forward and gives him a tow into the race. Kirsty Milczareck rides Lingfield very well and she knows the horse, 8/1+ in this company is too big.

3.05 Lingfield 4pts split stakes on Aloomaas, Gung Ho Jack, Catalinas Diamond, Gabbiano, Proper Charlie, Black Cadillac, Courageous @ Betfair SP.

A really interesting and tricky looking sprint in which the two market principals take a big chunk out of the book. At a glance they look progressive, but I have reservations about both and the opposition are interesting. Khawatim appeared to have been laid out for his win last time and it is anyone's guess whether he possesses the ability he used to have (was rated in the 90's in early 2012) and this course didn't seem to suit him in two runs before Christmas, albeit over five furlongs. He will need to bring his A game and get luck in running. Polar Venture was very keen last time and although the performance can be marked up as he travelled wide, he is fairly closely matched with Gung Ho Jack who is 14/1, so there is no value there. Aloomaas has been progressive, Gung Ho Jack too, and has form with Polar Venture, Catalinas Diamond is a twice course winner in decent form, connections haven't found the key to Gabbiano but cheekpieces might unlock the latent ability, Proper Charlie didn't look ready last time but is a course and distance winner, Black Cadillac bombed out at 7/2 last time but why 40/1 today?, and Courageous represents a stable who have been doing better this winter with horses coming back from absences, and he is well handicapped. Split 4pts evenly around the seven "outsiders" at Betfair SP.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -55.49 / year: -55.49

Thursday 24th January 2013

One bet for Thursday afternoon, an evening bet will follow released before 4.00pm.

3.15 Lingfield Club House 5pts win @ 6/1 (Sporting Bet, 11/2 guaranteed with Coral, Stan James, Betpack.com)

Robert Tart gave this horse a fine ride last time out, and I think this is a horse who is improving fast. Jodies Jem, the horse he beat last time, is no mug and I think there is a chance the formline is being underestimated. The selection quickens really well on this surface and that is not something that some of his rivals (including the favourite) are guaranteed to be able to do. His handicap mark still looks fair and unless there is something very progressive in here the hat trick looks very much on. Sporting Bet offer a generoud 6/1, 11/2 is available guaranteed in a few spots.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -44.49 / year: -44.49

Tuesday 22nd January 2013

Two selections for today. Like a lot of our selections lately, we beat SP on No Mean Trick by quite a percentage, he traded Evens in running and was worried out of a place.

1.20 Lingfield Sofililia 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

Unfortunately Hugh Taylor recommended this selection at the same time we did, meaning the price crashed. I know a few of you got 9/1 from your e-mails but in the interests of fairness we'll settle at 8/1 guaranteed minus the rule 4 for Sir Boss - which also means 2 places paid only - the perils of each-way betting mid-winter.

The selections does have a really decent chance. She was over faced in Listed company, and probably needed a better gallop last time out when she failed to settle at all at Kempton. I think this track will suit much better, and there seems to be a couple of potential pace horses here which should ensure they don't go a crawl. I think the handicap mark is fair and her trainer tends to do really well with this type. I have little doubt there is improvement to come, the question mark really is getting her to settle and see out her races better. The booking of an in form 5lb claimer who seems to have a good feel for a horse is a major positive in my view.

3.40 Wolverhampton Blue Noodles 5pts win @ 6/1 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)

A dire contest. Blue Noodles is selected as a horse who gets further than this, with the ground riding slower than standard. His trainer has endured a really poor year or two, but there was encouragement to be gained from Blue Noodles run last time out as well as a 33/1 winner here for the stable last week. The selection was caught wide and suffered a bad trip last time out, but still found it within his grasp to make late ground on the leaders, finishing fourth in a race I would think of as much better than this one. This might be won or lost at the start, Barry McHugh is riding well and if he gets into a good position, I think the selection should win.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -39.49 / year: -39.49

Monday 21st January 2013

One selection on a freezing Monday afternoon.

2.35 Wolverhampton No Mean Trick 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Stan James, Betpack, guaranteed, Blue Square, 888 Sport, Independents)

No Mean Trick is probably not easy to train, with just 22 starts as a seven year old meaning he is lightly raced for a horse of his age. He has ability, though, and has won three times in fourteen all weather starts. The selection possesses plenty of speed and travelled quite well last time out at this track at the end of December. His trainer has had a poor year, and seems to have kept very few going during the winter. With two recent runs behind him, fitness doesn't worry me and as a Southwell winner, I expect him to enjoy the slow going at Wolverhampton today - the surface is deeper having been harrowed to deal with the snow and may be more forgiving to a fragile horse than quicker polytrack. A mark of OR61 means he is very well handicapped and a draw in stall 2 means he should get a good position, and a tow into the race from Strong Man and Desert Strike. If he is in a good enough position a furlong from home, I'd expect place money at the very least.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -29.49 / year: -29.49

Saturday 19th January 2013

Just one selection on a weather-affected Saturday.

5.05 Kempton Jonnie Skull 6pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Stayed on really eye catchingly over a trip short of his best in a better race than this at Lingfield last time out. Six furlongs is probably his optimum these days and the stable's sprinters are in decent form. He is drawn well and gets the services of a jockey riding really well, including winners at this track. He has been dropped to a mark of OR54, 3lb below his last run, and despite being kept busy lately he should go close to winning here if he gets on the lead. We'll have a decent stake on.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -23.49 / year: -23.49

Thursday 17th January 2013

Just one for Thursday.

2.50 Wincanton Chasers Chance 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Boylesports, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)

I'm not all that keen on the head of the market here and with the dead eight now running, and the selection proven at the course, I'm inclined to forgive him two poor efforts in quick succession last November and support him at huge odds. Tom O'Brien is booked and his proven ability to negotiate these fences and this track counts for a lot. I'm not sure about Petitfour or Miko De Beauchaine returning quickly after hard races at Plumpton, and the selection's two early season wins seem to have been forgotten about rather quickly. A chance is taken at a price I feel underestimates his chances.

Profit & loss: day: -3.00 / month: -17.49 / year: -17.49

Wednesday 16th January 2013

A busy day for us. We have possible evening bets to follow, details at 3.30pm.

1.00 Lingfield Shaolin 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Made a really nice debut in a Newbury maiden last June that has worked out very well, throwing up a classic hopeful and numerous OR90+ sorts. It looks eons away from the standard required to win this, but there was a suggestion that Shaolin was able to keep pace with some of the better horses before his early keenness told. He travelled very well having been alertly away and despite fading, it was probably to be expected given the company he was keeping and the extra energy he expended in racing with the choke out. He looks a physically nice horse and would probably only need to be an OR70+ type to win here. He has been well supported and the stable had a horse run really well at a big price the other day. His sire is 15% at the track and I expect he'll go off close to favourite now.

3.10 Lingfield Peter Island 3pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, Coral, Independents, guaranteed)

The booking of a good 7lb claimer really catches the eye here, especially because Peter Island's mark of OR66 is a very fair one. He is a ten year old now, but he has gone well fresh in the past and he showed on a couple of occasions last summer that he hasn't lost any of his zip - he made all over five furlongs of Brighton to post an RPR of 77 off OR68 and it may be connections are trying to take advantage of his lower mark of this surface. He has come up trumps with a stall one draw and looking at the other front runners drawn further outside, he should be able to get the lead and play catch me if you can. At double figure odds, he is overpriced and should be supported to small stakes.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: -14.49 / year: -14.49

Tuesday 15th January 2013

A nice winner yesterday.

One interest today, at a much bigger price.

2.55 Wolverhampton Rafaaf 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 50/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 40/1 William Hill, guaranteed, 33/1 Generally guaranteed)

0/5 on the all weather, but a chance is taken with Rafaaf at huge odds based on how well handicapped he is off a mark of OR63, and some unusual visual evidence from his penultimate run at Kempton. The selection has been ridden last twice by Sean Quinlan, who is much better known as a jumps jockey, and the tender handling he was given in the closing stages over 6f at Kempton really caught my eye. Dropping back to five furlongs at Lingfield was never going to suit, and he was never put in the race. It is interesting Fergus Sweeney takes over today, he has been riding winners this winter and impressed on Drawnfromthepast over 5f here recently. A good pace is on the cards here which is what the selection wants, and he should be able to take a nice midfield sit from stall 7. The selection is probably as likely to bomb out as run well, but it is interesting the likes of Coral are as short as 18/1 and I certainly think the pricing is wrong at 25/1+. We'll have a small each-way and win interest.

Profit & loss: day: -3.00 / month: -6.49 / year: -6.49

Monday 14th January 2013

Just one bet for today.

4.50 Wolves Hidden Link 5pts win @ 9/4 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON @ 5/2

Looks sure to enjoy the step up in trip being a son of Rail Link, and showed plenty enough under relatively tender handling last time out to suggest that the price still represents value in a poor looking event like this. The six furlong event he ran in last time wasn't the strongest, but the selection is not bred to sprint and the way he finished suggested it was third run for a handicap mark. It is unusual to see Sir Mark Prescott sell one to Ron Harris, but the latter does well with cast offs and this looks a decent piece of placement.

Profit & loss: day: +12.50 / month: -3.49 / year: -3.49

Friday 11th January 2013

Just one bet for this evening.

5.00 Wolverhampton Showboating 5pts win @ 7/1 (VC Bet, William Hill, guaranteed, 13/2 Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

Only nine runners but Speightstown Kid and Da'Quonde might just inject a bit of pace into this contest. If they do, Showboating has to enter calculations based on his handicap mark, trainer's form, and his improved form on turf last summer. The selection was keeping better company than this during the flat season, and looked an improved performer which is no real surprise given he is only a five year old. He is a course and distance winner, and a mark of OR77 doesn't look harsh based on his previous achievements. He will probably need a personal best to win this, butthe McCabe horses are flying and the selection has won after a similar break in the past.

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Afternoon Bets:

A nice winner yesterday and a brilliant ride from Racheal Kneller - win or lose she knows that horse which is crucial, and she never panicked.

Our Betfair SP method swings into action in the 12.50 at Huntingdon.

We will have additional bets, released before 2.00pm.

12.50 Huntingdon 

4pts Split stakes on Glasson Lad, Princely Hero, Truckers Princess, Wilde At Heart, Dr Dreamy, Marico, Obscurity, Superior Knight

Not going to give a long write up here, but those at the top of the market don't look cast iron to me and there are some definite lurkers amongst those at the other end of the market. I'm inclined to risk 4pts across eight of them at Betfair SP, with a half point going on each. Johnny Portman's pair look of particular interest, he has booked two decent conditionals - Truckers Princess, Princely Hero and Glasson Lad also take the eye on elements of their form.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -15.89 / year: -15.89

Thursday 10th January 2013

Two selections for Thursday.

2.55 Lingfield Reginald Claude 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 13/2 (VC Bet, 6/1 Generally guaranteed) - WON

There isn't much between the selections and the favourite Bussa on the book, yet Reginald Claude is six times the price and has a better draw. He has also won over course and distance. The race should play into his hands with Spartic setting a strong pace, and from stall three Racheal Kneller, who rides the selection really well, should be able to pounce late on. There is plenty of dead wood in here and as a result I'm inclined to play each-way, with only a minimal loss if the selection runs in the first three.

5.45 Kempton Now What 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Interesting that Johnny Portman sends a whole pile of horses to the races in the coming days, especially as a trainer who tends to get winners in clusters. The selection goes well fresh, is on a fair handicap mark, and has posted some really decent figures in better company than this at this track in the past. The booking of Joey Haynes, the latest Balding-attached 7lb claimer to impress, is a bonus - he rides the track well and is well worth his 7lb claim.

Profit & loss: day: +22.40 / month: -6.89 / year: -6.89

Wednesday 9th January 2013

Chris Catlin gave Sewn Up an appalling tactical ride yesterday, managing to do everything I said he shouldn't in the write up, and in addition getting the horse unbalanced close home and losing second place. Third wasn't good enough as a late non runner and an even later withdrawl on course left only seven to run. Days like that are best forgotten. Remember the jockey was factored into the bet - had the selection been 10/1 and ridden by Adam Kirby, I'd have bet, at 16/1 and 18/1 under Catlin, it was also a bet.

One for this evening.

4.40 Kempton Presburg 5pts win @ 11/2 (Stan James betpack.com, guaranteed, 5/1 VC Bet, independents, get guaranteed)

Has more 2's than 1's to his name but Presburg kept good company last summer and looks attractively handicapped on this surface now with a rating of OR75. He didn't do much wrong during the summer, but was probably just a bit high in the weights. He travels really well on polytrack, indeed his only win to date was at Wolverhampton where he won his maiden cosily having cruised around like a horse who enjoys the surface. He has also run well here in a much better handicap than this. His trainer hasn't kept many on the go this winter but this looks a really nice piece of placement against lower class horses and any pace in the race should suit him (one or two tend to race prominently). He has also run well after a short break in the past. He might just be better than the likes of Purple 'N Gold and Whitby Jet and the price looks a point and a half too big.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -29.29 / year: -29.29

Tuesday 8th January 2013

Yesterday's selection Piccolo Express was an example of a bet which was lost at the start of the race, stall 9 proving too difficult to overcome for Adam Carter who tried to get an early position but wasn't quite aggressive enough. I wouldn't be critical of any apprentice in that position and he done ok overall.

One selection for today.

3.25 Wolverhampton Sewn Up 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 18/1 (www.betbyrne.com 1/4 odds,Stan James, www.betpack.com, all guaranteed, 16/1 1/4 odds with brucebetting.com)

Again this looks a bet which could be won or lost at the start of the race and I'm a bit worried in that regard because Chris Catlin hasn't been riding well lately. The betting opportunity outweighs the jockey booking in this case and the price is right too. Sewn Up is being dropped back from an extended mile, having failed to see out his races over that trip last twice, despite showing some decent form in the process. He also has a fair bit of speed and travels very well, and I am inclined to think he might just take after his Dad Compton Place - he is well worth a try at sprinting. He is a smashing looking horse and certainly has the size of a sprinter as well as the ability to carry 9-6 on his back no problem. The caveat is that he will obviously stay this trip well - the last thing I want to see is Catlin settle him in rear and bring him five wide around the home turn, losing ground and getting outpaced. I'd like to see the selection sit very handy or lead, there isn't that much early pace on and from stall 5 it should be easy enough to get a good position. If Catlin can do that (he rode the horse last time so should know he'll stay well), then I think he might be the best horse in this line up. The price is far too big and the opposition aren't all that.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -24.29 / year: -24.29

Monday 7th January 2013

One bet for Monday.

2.20 Wolverhampton Piccolo Express 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 10/1 Generally guaranteed)

Brian Baugh's string do well at Wolverhampton in particular but have been largely out of form for the past year. There are signs lately, however, that they are coming right back to full health, and Scamperdale was just the latest in a long line of Baugh horses to run well lately. As a result, most of his string are now very well handicapped and Piccollo Express is no exception off a mark of OR58. He is a three times course and distance winner who tends to come to hand at this time of year. Jockey Adam Carter is one of the better apprentices here, and he has a very likable 14% strike rate at the course returning a level stakes profit of +23.58 to the unit stake. The favourite looks progressive here, but she beat trees last time out and the selection ought to get a tow into the race off her today. Double figure odds are far too big and we'll have a decent stake on.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -19.29 / year: -19.29

Sunday 6th January 2013

One interest for this afternoon:

2.45 Wolverhampton 4pts stake split evenly between: Poetic Power, Glass Mountain, Flying Applause, Cabal, Maz, Mr Chocolate Drop, Scamperdale @ Betfair SP

Berlusca might just be an improving performer but he turns out very quickly under a penalty in a slightly better race, and moves up one furlong in trip so there are some question marks. Brown Pete is another on a roll, but again this looks a bit better than the races he was winning and there are lurkers in here that look worth supporting with the aforementioned pair taking out a big chunk of the book. There are five course winners amongst them, and the likes of Scamperdale and Flying Applause look attractively handicapped. Both have won over course and distance, as has Cabal. On speed figures Scamperdale and Glass Mountain boast very sound chances, and I just think this race is not quite as cut and dried as the market would make it seem. We'll split four points across our selections at Betfair SP.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: -13.29 / year: -13.29

Saturday 5th January 2013

One for Saturday.

3.45 Lingfield Wordismybond 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

Interesting booking here with Jamie Spencer taking the ride and and a good draw to sit in behind the pace in stall four. Seven furlongs with two confirmed front runners in the field should suit Wordismybond perfectly, connections still seem to be trying to find his ideal but his run here over a mile last time was really interesting. He was clear with the eventual winner Aqualonious approaching the furlong pole before fading, and he probably needed the run after a break. He was drawn wide that day in stall nine and had to do some of the donkey work himself. This is not as strong a contest and he certainly makes appeal off a mark of OR66. I think he could improve ten pounds on that as he gets more experience, he has already won twice in a short career and appeals as a progressive relatively late developer.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -9.29 / year: -9.29

Thursday 4th January 2013

Just one bet for today.

3.00 Wolverhampton Una Bella Cosa 5pts win @ 9/2 (Totesport, Betfred, VC Bet, Independents, guaranteed)

Wolverhampton is suiting front runners over the last couple of days and if this Alan McCabe filly can get the lead from stall nine, she ought to be hard to beat in poor company. She looks well handicapped based on her last two runs, where she attempted to make all on both occasions. She was well punted the first time at Southwell, but faded against two better horses, following that up with a decent performance on her polytrack debut in a handicap which has worked out well. The stable weren't in the best of form before Christmas but there have been signs lately that their horses are running well again and, in a poor contest, the selection looks much the best handicapped horse off OR51 and should go very close.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -4.29 / year: -4.29

Wednesday 2nd January 2013

Back to business today and we have our first selections of the New Year this afternoon. Henry is back with us now and clients can expect our blog to updated in the next day or two. A losing December means we finished 2012 in the red but six of the seven months since we reverted to our regular staking policy have finished profitably and that is of some comfort after the undoubted low of last April and May.

An early opportunity today for us to use the method I discussed in the "Strikeline 2013" e-mail recently of supporting numerous horses in a race at Betfair SP. I'll run through the method as completely as possible below.

5.20 Kempton - 

4pts stake split evenly between Caldercruix, Time Medicean, Jake The Snake, Aloomaas, Belle Bayardo, Rambo Will, Guest Book at Betfair SP (ie. 0.57pts on each selection for a total of 4pts outlay). Aloomaas - WON @9.69

Make absolutely sure to take Betfair SP!

The shape of this race is really interesting and lends itself to us using our method to turn a profit. The top three take a fair chunk of the market here but there are negatives about each one. Lastkingofscotland tends to find one too good and is up 7lb for beating very little last time out. Gabbiano has proved himself to be a bit of a thug in the past and unless a first time hood brings about an attitude change, he looks one to take on after an absence with his stable not at their very best right now. Fortrose Academy is solid but will need a good pace to get involved and he disappointed at Lingfield last time. Gung Ho Jack has yet to show his best form here and from the outside stall he is also taken on.

That leaves seven outsiders we can split our stake on. Each currently trades at 12/1+ on the exchanges and it is hard to rule any one out. Belle Bayardo and Aloomaas both have recent wins to their name and look to big on their recent form. Guest Book returns from an absence and has a question mark over this trip but is very well handicapped.  Rambo Will could get an easy lead and has solid form at this course. Caldercruix has been well supported and is another who goes well here. Jake The Snake is a multiple course winner, and Time Medicean is probably the best of these on his day but hasn't been in form.

The Betfair market will likely push most of the seven out to big enough prices before the off. It is hard enough for trainers, let alone the betting public, to know if some of these are fit after a break and as a result it is nigh on impossible to price up a horses chance accurately. We'll split our stakes evenly across the seven horses at Betfair SP. If you don't have a Betfair account, open one today. One could also take guaranteed prices with fixed odds firms on our selections, but you will not get the same returns we do in the long term so an exchange account is crucial here. At big prices, Betfair SP can far exceed industry SP and that's where we'll make big gains.

The text will be sent as follows: "5.20k numbers 1,4,5,6,8,9, and 10 4pts split stakes" according to the card number of the horses supported.

A four point stake divided between seven horses simply means you place 0.57pts per selection (divide the four by seven). If you bet to £10 per point, your total stake will be £40, with £5.71 being placed on each selection at Betfair SP (40 divided by the seven means £5.71 per selection).

The reason we don't dutch the selections for a uniform profit is, as mentioned before, the prices are so difficult for exchange layers to get right that the probabilities become less uniform as the prices get bigger and it can pay over time to simply split stakes evenly rather than dutching. We'll get some big priced winners from this method this year so get stuck in straight away and try not to be afraid of the change of betting style.

We're here all afternoon to answer any questions, drop us a line if need be!

Profit & loss: day: +0.71 / month: +0.71 / year: +0.71

Strikeline 2013

Some notes on what our clients can expect from the Strikeline service next year.

New strategies

The biggest change from 2012 to 2013 for Strikeline clients will be the introduction of the use of Betfair SP. Not just recommending particular horses at Betfair SP (although that will happen), but a whole new betting strategy I have used with my own betting for some time.

The main strategy we will introduce is something I call "dutch the donkeys". It is based around backing multiple horses in one race. It works particularly well (this is just one example) when there are two horses at the top of the market at short prices who are expected to fight out a finish, but in reality are both vulnerable. The reason the tactic is profitable is that the betfair SP prices of outsiders in this and other cases tend to be inflated, and oftentimes influenced by factors other than the horses chance itself. In fact, the phrase I've coined doesn't tell the full truth - in practice, we will not dutch at all, rather we will spread level stakes equally around the outsiders. The logic behind this is that as the prices get bigger, they are less inclined to reflect the horses true chance and a certain amount of chaos applies to how the market forms. Instead of looking for an equal profit from each horse, we will look to exploit that chaos or randomness by having an equal stake on, say, a 25/1 shot and a 33/1 shot. When you play at that end of the market, results tend to be less uniform. The real beauty of this strategy is that because we will be backing multiple horses, our bets will tend not to affect the market!

Don't worry if this sounds alien or difficult - in reality it's very simple! We will run through an example early in the New Year, and we'll do a dry run one day to paper stakes so that everyone knows how to go about it. I've used this method profitably for the past four years. It is not something I had considered for Strikeline, but as I have said to some clients recently, we have to remain dynamic instead of static to keep up our profitability. These days the Betfair market is much stronger than the average on course market, so it is important that we take advantage of that. A Betfair account will not be anabsolute necessity for clients next year, but I would strongly, strongly recommend that everyone gets one ready and funded before January 1st - that is if you don't have one already. I have no doubt the usage of Betfair SP and in particular this strategy will improve profitability.

Interestingly, the strategy tends to yield the best results when results are hard to predict - in April when nobody knows which flat horses are fit, in September when the ground softens, in February/March when the ground quickens up. Traditionally many services including our own have struggled during such times, this will help immensely with our strike rate during these periods.

Horse racing markets are getting smarter by the month, and it is my feeling that we need to take full advantage of instances where the bookmakers and exchange layers are getting it wrong in order to stay ahead. That means getting out of our comfort zone and implementing new strategies.

Spreadsheets for Clients

We will endeavour in the New Year to provide a monthly update of our results for clients. We will send results on in an excel file every second week where possible, and a minimum of once a month, if it has not been possible due to holidays / personal reasons for admin to update files. Expect the first spreadsheet on January 15th.

Less is More

Following an immense amount of regressive analysis, we have decided to cut down the amount of bets we advise by around 10%-15%. The quality of racing at certain times of year and due to circumstances like flooding / 48hr decs / small fields and other unforeseen events has become dire as prize money has fallen, and we need to adapt to that. There are days next year when I very much hope I'll be advising people to go spend some winnings rather than advising a selection. As some bloke with a guitar once said, the times they are a-changing, and we need to be dynamic too and change with them to stay ahead. It is a sad fact that the standard of British racing in particular on your average Sunday / Monday / Tuesday at certain times of the year is pure rubbish. I never minded the old Banded contests circa 2006, with 0-40 classified events, because you had decent field sizes of twelve and there were angles in to be exploited. Four runner claimers around Wolverhampton on a Tuesday are bad betting media, though - mainly due to the tendency for a farcical pace -  and we'll mostly avoid that type of stuff.

The Big Meetings

Although profit is the goal, I've never considered Strikeline to be a purely robotic service; there are times of year that are traditionally important to us because we love horse racing as a sport, and there are certain times of the year when our endeavours should be enjoyable as well as profitable. We will continue to provide a fuller than full analysis with selections for Cheltenham, Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood, and the Breeders cup. The meetings named have always been special for us and usually profitable over the course of any year. I have to admit it took me around ten hours research to find the Breeders Cup winner Fort Larned this year, it was "only" a 9/1 winner and it meant looking in every nook and cranny of the form and reading up on a lot of American stuff I don't know as readily as the UK / Irish stuff, but it is worth it to be able to say we've had the Classic winner two years in a row. I don't know of a single other service who can say that.

SMS Service

We've managed to cut a few costings here and some of you will notice the monthly cost has come down from £12 to £10 recently; this pricing will continue for the foreseeable future. Indeed if there is a change to be made in 2013 the cost may come down a little further again. Clients who subscribe to six month and annual packages get the SMS service free.

That's all for now. 2012 has been a rollercoaster year, no two ways about that. We haven't been helped by outside events like the recent closure of Southwell, but we are extremely confident of getting back on track for 2013. We'll be in the office until around midday tomorrow, after tomorrow's mail the next e-mail you'll get will be on Boxing Day / St. Stephen's Day.

I'd like to take this opportunity to wish all our clients a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. It isn't an easy time for everybody, which I think does get forgotten, but where possible enjoy the festive drinks and try not to get too brassed off with the in laws!

From Dan, Henry and the Strikeline team.

Saturday 29th December 2012

Not a particularly enticing Saturday, one bet for today.

If anyone has any questions or comments regarding the Strikeline 2013 e-mail sent last week, please drop us a line!

2.05 Wolverhampton Steelcut 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Thirteen career wins would suggest Steelcut knows how to get the job done and, with a better draw in stall 2 today, he is selected to shake up Another Citizen. The selection won at this time last year after a similar break, over this course and distance. A mark of OR66 is one he is capable of winning off, and there are question marks about quite a few of these. A strong pace set by Greenhead High and the aforementioned favourite should mean the race is run to suit Steelcut, and if he gets a decent early position he looks a decent bet for a place at least at double figure odds.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -80.50 / year: -78.70

Friday 28th December 2012

A nice winner yesterday.

Just one for today.

3.00 Leopardstown - The Lexus Chase - First Lieutenant 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Ran a blinder in the Hennessy behind Tidal Bay, and stepping back to the bare three miles he might just be overpriced here. He was continually bothered by a loose horse there, and with an easier trip today he should get into a decent rhythm. Tidal Bay, as an eleven year old, is not guaranteed to reproduce his Hennessy form and I'm inclined to think the seven year old is better value at more than three times the price. Sir Des Champs and Flemenstar look short enough and have one or two questions to answer. Take the Gigginstown second string each-way and win at a price which underestimates his chances.

Profit & loss: day: +6.00 / month: -75.50 / year: -73.70

Thursday 27th December 2012

One bet for Thursday.

2.05 Kempton Menorah 5pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Elements of Menorah's Novice form would suggest he is the one to be on here. He followed up a decent run in the Arkle (better than the distance beaten suggests) with an impressive defeat of Cristal Bonus and Al Ferof at Aintree, form which looks all the more impressive now. He disappointed behind Cue Card on his reappearance, but Philip Hobbs is not a trainer to follow first time out and his horses tend to come on for a run. The stable sent Captain Chris out to go close to winning the King George yesterday, which would suggest Hobbs has his string in good form. at 9/2 the selection looks at least a point overpriced to me and, given a clear round, I think he should win.

Profit & loss: day: +22.50 / month: -81.50 / year: -79.70

Wednesday 26th December 2012

Two selections for today.

3.10 Kempton - The King George - Riverside Theatre 4pts win @ 6/1 (VC Bet, 11/2 Bet 365, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)

Is one of the few horses in this race who has been trained specifically for the day and has broken through the RPR 170+ barrier on a regular basis. In fact, he has posted RPR's of 171+ on four of his last five chase starts and for a horse who goes well fresh he is remarkably tough and consistent. This does not look a vintage renewal outside of Long Run, whose 180+ RPR's were all achieved up against Kauto Star and Denman and you have to wonder if some of the ratings were inflated due to those two rivals not being at their peak. the other 180+ was achieved against Burton Port and I'm really not sure where the rating comes from. Riverside Theatre has had only ten chase starts and still looks open to progress. He hails from the right stable and has his regular top jockey on board, he has already come second in this contest to a peak form Long Run and I think he is a better horse nowadays. Take him to land the big race at 11/2+.

3.15 Wolverhampton Night Watch 5pts win @ 8/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, brucebetting.com, betrogers.com, independents, guaranteed)

Represents a stable who are both shrewd and who have a good record in Nurseries, including at this track. The selection was sent off a short priced 5/2fav on debut for a relatively weak maiden, but disappointed and followed up with two more quick runs in maiden company. He showed much more in a better maiden last time out at Kempton, settled detached in last having been keen early and doing all his best work at the finish. The form of that contest has been franked somewhat and I think the selection has plenty of improvement off this handicap mark providing he learns to settle. He looked a natural mover on the surface at Kempton on what was his all weather debut, and I expect him to go close today given the right ride.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -104.00 / year: -102.20

Saturday 22nd December 2012

Just the one bet for Saturday. Keep an eye out for ante post bets over the next few days, in all likelihood we'll wait until Christmas Eve if there is anything we need to get on early for Boxing Day, our next daily e-mail will be on Boxing Day itself.

3.10 Ascot - The Ladbroke Hurdle - Double Ross 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 4th

Perennial front runner for whom heavy ground will hold no concerns. His run in the Swinton hurdle in May suggested that two miles over this trip is what he requires, and an impressive Cheltenham victory in November confirmed him an improver. He won very easily that day and I think a mark of 142 probably still underestimates him. He was a little disappointing at Haydock but was probably turned out too quickly. The stable are in fine form at at the prices I think Double Ross is worth an each-way interest.

Profit & loss: day: +6.00 / month: -95.00 / year: -93.20

Friday 21st December 2012

Just one for this evening.

5.20 Wolverhampton Pippy 4pts win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I always take note when Tom Dascombe fits headgear on a horse, the stable are shrewd enough with knowing what is required to eke out improvement and it is interesting Pippy gets a first time visor this evening. In fact, I find it interesting he is being kept on the go at this time of year and I can only think they reckon they can pick up a race and perhaps a Christmas winner for Mr. and Mrs. Rooney. The selection had been off since September when returning last week at Lingfield, never getting the breaks in running and ultimately looking as if the run would bring him on. He returns to Wolverhampton today off a fair mark of OR68 and as a course and distance winner, he has to be respected. I can pick a few holes in the form of most of these, and if the Johnston horse doesn't prove to be better than his mark, Pippy looks the next most likely in my view and at a double figure price he definitely looks a couple of points too big. The presence of the excellent Richard Kingscote in the saddle is a major positive and a win bet is advised.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: -101.00 / year: -99.20

Thursday 20th December 2012

Unfortunately no drift on our selection!

We may have an evening bet, details before 4.00pm.

3.30 Lingfield Tartan Jura 5pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Represents Mark Johnston, whose stable have been relatively quiet but are starting to get winners following a fallow period. Tartan Jura has no fitness concerns and looks ready to confirm the promise of three good runs on polytrack. He ran a hell of a race from the front last time out, challenged on numerous occasions and still staying on when headed. I have a feeling twelve furlongs might suit him better, and this small field means he is very likely to be bounced out and try to make all. Joe Fanning is just the man for the job and there is no other confirmed pace in the race which really interests me. He is progressive and the price looks very fair.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -97.00 / year: -95.20

Wednesday 19th December 2012

One selection for Kempton.

5.55 Kempton Charter 4pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Charter is by a sire whose progeny have a woeful 4% strike rate on heavy ground, improving to 13% on the all weather. He made a decent debut over seven furlongs at Yarmouth at the end of October, drifting out from 7/2 to 5/1 possibly on account of the heavy ground. The form hasn't worked out but he looks a physically impressive horse, and he looks bound to improve on this more suitable surface. His stable are now in form and their horses are running well and winning, and jockey Tom McLaughlin rode a winner at Lingfield yesterday. He steps back to six furlongs but he didn't look devoid of speed on his debut and if he comes on for the experience, I expect him to win this poor looking contest.

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Afternoon Bets:

One bet for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet, details on that before 3.00pm.

1.30 Lingfield Last Hooray 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/2 (Paddy Power, guaranteed, 5/1 generally guaranteed)

Made a really nice debut at Kempton earlier this month, showing plenty of speed but a bit green under pressure before running on under tender handling towards the business end of the contest. She is bred to be much better than her initial performance, and given that her trainer's juveniles tend to come on for a run she looks well worth supporting against a fairly average field here. Unless the Gosden newcomer is decent, I can't see that much to beat on pedigree and track performance, and I'm not sure what the Noseda filly achieved on her debut in a weak looking maiden. I think the Kempton race was better and we'll back the selection each-way as she looks set to drift a bit on course.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -92.00 / year: -90.20

Tuesday 18th December 2012

Two races of interest for Tuesday.

12.50 Lingfield Devout 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

10/1 is all wrong on Devout, provided she is both fit to run, and sees out her race better than in her three maiden runs in May and June. She was reported to work well at home by Osborne before her debut, but his two year olds were held up in March and didn't really hit stride until later in the season. The selection was one of the first to run, and she had three quick runs before being put away. She showed good speed on all starts, and indeed on her final run at Windsor had no problem laying up with some decent sorts until soft ground got the better of her. Her sire's progeny go really well on the all weather, and the stable did a really good job of getting her a basement handicap mark I feel she might be able to improve on. The money has come this morning and we're on at the right prices.

2.20 Lingfield

Bull Bay 3pts win @ 7/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

Duke of Aricabeau 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, guaranteed)

I'm not mad on any of the older horses here, Parisian Pyramid looks short enough from a wide draw and Speak The Truth will need plenty of luck in running. Bull Bay is selected following a win in a weak maiden. The pace in that race was strong, however, and the time compared favourably with others on the same card. Bull Bay was game in fighting off a rival who was held up for a late run, he will have learned plenty and he has enough early speed to make him of interest from stall eight. His handicap mark of OR65 might underestimate him, and a 7lb claimer who knows him well takes the ride.

Duke Of Aricabeau  is ridden by Simon Pearce, so we have to factor that into the bet - he isn't the best jockey in the world and is probably just about value for a 3lb claim. The selection represents a stable in good nick, however, and his run behind Ginger Ted and Beat The Bell last time out was really promising. He was kept wide all the way and had to switch around horses to make his challenge, finishing clear of horses of the ability he faces today. His jockey will have to be switched on from stall 11, and we have to assume he is fit after 56 days off, but the stable have had success with switchers just lately and the selection is too big at the current prices.

Profit & loss: day: -2.00 / month: -83.00 / year: -81.20

Saturday 15th December 2012

Two selections for Saturday. Following a recent losing run I'd be hopeful of getting off the cold list today.

2.30 Cheltenham Astracad 4pts win @ 10/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

Nigel Twiston Davies has his string in fine form and his horses are tending to come on for their first run. Astracad is a second season novice who looks attractively handicapped on his best form over hurdles, and he has plenty of Cheltenham form for a horse so early in his career. His run last time out was particularly promising, he shaped for all the world as though a step up in trip was required, jumping well but eventually getting caught out by speedier horses when he was trying to run and jump a stride quicker than his optimum. He should be at peak fitness today, his jockey is riding really well, and I think the handicap mark is very favourable. Anything approaching double figures is too big.

2.40 Wolverhampton Classy trick 5pts win @ 7/2 (Boylesports, guaranteed, 10/3 generally guaranteed)

An interesting little nursery, but Richard Fahey's Classy Trick stands out in this company. The form of his recent Lingfield run looks very solid and the first three pulled clear which is always something I look for. I think the three might be a bit better than the bare form, and it is also interesting the selection hit the front before running green close home. That would suggest that the booking of the great cajoler Jamie Spencer is ideal for the horse, he can hopefully produce him at the right time and show that he is a bit classier than this lot.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -81.00 / year: -79.20