Just one for Saturday evening at Wolverhampton.
5.50 Wolverhampton Saunta 6pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
At the prices, Saunta is well worth chancing in this weak maiden for a trainer I can remember stepping horses back from six to five in the past. The selection was to fizzy over six furlongs on her last start here, but she travelled extremely well in a much better race and you would have to think she has every chance of winning this lesser contest if she finds anything for pressure. She didn't find much when let down last time, but was slightly hampered and had been off for a month previously. She is well drawn in stall five, and should get a nice tow into the race from Guilietta Girl and Miss Bunter. Philip Makin has been riding really well, and at 4/1, I think she is a shade overpriced - I expect her to go off shorter.
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Afternoon Bets:
3.10 Newbury - The Hennessy Gold Cup
First Lieutenant 3pts win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Teaforthree 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, 5 places, 20/1 generallly guaranteed 1/4 4 places)
A fascinating renewal of this great race. Class usually comes to the fore here, and with that in mind, we're looking for a top class horse who might be well handicapped. The market has found Bobs Worth, who fits the profile as a second season novice and potential Gold Cup horse. I think the Jewson was the strongest novice chase form of last year's festival, though, and I'm not sure the nine runner Sun Alliance was the best renewal. With the stable's horses in and out, he is passed over on his seasonal debut. I have never been impressed with Hold On Julio's jumping, and I think Tidal Bay will have to be an all time great to win off top weight. Of those who carry more than 11 stone, First Lieutenant sticks out. His second to Kauto Stone was a very impressive performance particularly because stamina is his forte and he set a very steady gallop. I would think the decent pace of today's contest will suit him much better and he is strictly 6lb well in looking at the rating he posted last time. There are no fitness issues, and the stable would not send him over if they didn't think he had a real chance. 10/1 is very fair about a horse of his class.
Teaforthree is another who will have no stamina concerns. He is another prominent racer and will have every assistance in establishing the required rhythm with Tony McCoy in the saddle. His wins to runs ratio is impressive given the company he keeps, and his novice form reads well, not least his win at Cheltenham. A recent pipe opener was encouraging, and he looks very well handicapped off OR144. He is selected each-way/win at a price which I am certain underestimates his chances.
Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -13.00 / year: -11.20
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