We have three selections on a busy afternoon. We'll use Betfair SP in places since the markets are likely to be strong.
1.15 Cheltenham Quincy Des Pictons 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes, 22/1 Generally guaranteed), AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Enjoys getting his toe in and with a going stick reading of 4.6 released at 9.30am, he'll have conditions to suit this afternoon. The selection ran a nice race here at last year's festival when 7/20 behind Hunt Ball in the Byrne Group Plate, and although he was well beaten, the ground was far too quick to have seen him at his best. His third on reappearance behind Quartz De Thaix looked a reasonable effort, and there is every chance he simply bounced at Haydock in December - I thought he should have fared a little bit better and he ran below his handicap mark. He should be fit and ready to do himself justice today, and with conditions to suit he makes plenty of appeal on an each-way basis at the prices.
2.25 Cheltenham Midnight Chase 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 2pts win @ Betfair SP
Many of these are using this race as a stepping stone to March, whether in terms of fitness (Imperial Commander) or in terms of sussing out stamina issues and deciding which race to go for (Grand Crus, Hunt Ball). I don't like backing horses in those circumstances, and despite slight reservations about the ground, last year's winner Midnight Chase is selected as a horse who is likely to be primed with today in mind. He has won three times on heavy ground, albeit in lesser company, and my feeling is he might just get away with it today on a track he loves. He ran really well at Wetherby on his reappearance, posting a 160 RPR which will be good enough to run a place here, and I don't think Leopardstown will have suited him last time out. We'll back him each-way and win, if he runs a place we cover our stake.
3.35 Cheltenham Kauto Stone 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
A fascinating race. Paul Nicholls has previous when it comes to sending chasers back hurdling, and Grade 1 winning chaser Kauto Stone is selected at a decent price to upset the applecart here and outstay Oscar Whisky. The race doesn't look that deep, for me the top four in the market all hold chances of sorts but my feeling is Alan King is protecting Walkon's chase handicap mark for a tilt at the big three mile handicap on the first day of the festival. That leaves me with the potential non-stayer Oscar Whisky, Reve De Sivola and Kauto Stone. Kauto Stone's defeat of First Lieutenant at Down Royal looks very smart form now, and I'm inclined to give him a chance at this different discipline. Ruby Walsh rides this hurdles course better than anyone else in my view, and at the prices I think this is a bit of a no brainer. We'll play win only.
Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -66.49 / year: -66.49
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