New strategies
The biggest change from 2012 to 2013 for Strikeline clients will be the introduction of the use of Betfair SP. Not just recommending particular horses at Betfair SP (although that will happen), but a whole new betting strategy I have used with my own betting for some time.
The main strategy we will introduce is something I call "dutch the donkeys". It is based around backing multiple horses in one race. It works particularly well (this is just one example) when there are two horses at the top of the market at short prices who are expected to fight out a finish, but in reality are both vulnerable. The reason the tactic is profitable is that the betfair SP prices of outsiders in this and other cases tend to be inflated, and oftentimes influenced by factors other than the horses chance itself. In fact, the phrase I've coined doesn't tell the full truth - in practice, we will not dutch at all, rather we will spread level stakes equally around the outsiders. The logic behind this is that as the prices get bigger, they are less inclined to reflect the horses true chance and a certain amount of chaos applies to how the market forms. Instead of looking for an equal profit from each horse, we will look to exploit that chaos or randomness by having an equal stake on, say, a 25/1 shot and a 33/1 shot. When you play at that end of the market, results tend to be less uniform. The real beauty of this strategy is that because we will be backing multiple horses, our bets will tend not to affect the market!
Don't worry if this sounds alien or difficult - in reality it's very simple! We will run through an example early in the New Year, and we'll do a dry run one day to paper stakes so that everyone knows how to go about it. I've used this method profitably for the past four years. It is not something I had considered for Strikeline, but as I have said to some clients recently, we have to remain dynamic instead of static to keep up our profitability. These days the Betfair market is much stronger than the average on course market, so it is important that we take advantage of that. A Betfair account will not be anabsolute necessity for clients next year, but I would strongly, strongly recommend that everyone gets one ready and funded before January 1st - that is if you don't have one already. I have no doubt the usage of Betfair SP and in particular this strategy will improve profitability.
Interestingly, the strategy tends to yield the best results when results are hard to predict - in April when nobody knows which flat horses are fit, in September when the ground softens, in February/March when the ground quickens up. Traditionally many services including our own have struggled during such times, this will help immensely with our strike rate during these periods.
Horse racing markets are getting smarter by the month, and it is my feeling that we need to take full advantage of instances where the bookmakers and exchange layers are getting it wrong in order to stay ahead. That means getting out of our comfort zone and implementing new strategies.
Spreadsheets for Clients
We will endeavour in the New Year to provide a monthly update of our results for clients. We will send results on in an excel file every second week where possible, and a minimum of once a month, if it has not been possible due to holidays / personal reasons for admin to update files. Expect the first spreadsheet on January 15th.
Less is More
Following an immense amount of regressive analysis, we have decided to cut down the amount of bets we advise by around 10%-15%. The quality of racing at certain times of year and due to circumstances like flooding / 48hr decs / small fields and other unforeseen events has become dire as prize money has fallen, and we need to adapt to that. There are days next year when I very much hope I'll be advising people to go spend some winnings rather than advising a selection. As some bloke with a guitar once said, the times they are a-changing, and we need to be dynamic too and change with them to stay ahead. It is a sad fact that the standard of British racing in particular on your average Sunday / Monday / Tuesday at certain times of the year is pure rubbish. I never minded the old Banded contests circa 2006, with 0-40 classified events, because you had decent field sizes of twelve and there were angles in to be exploited. Four runner claimers around Wolverhampton on a Tuesday are bad betting media, though - mainly due to the tendency for a farcical pace - and we'll mostly avoid that type of stuff.
The Big Meetings
Although profit is the goal, I've never considered Strikeline to be a purely robotic service; there are times of year that are traditionally important to us because we love horse racing as a sport, and there are certain times of the year when our endeavours should be enjoyable as well as profitable. We will continue to provide a fuller than full analysis with selections for Cheltenham, Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood, and the Breeders cup. The meetings named have always been special for us and usually profitable over the course of any year. I have to admit it took me around ten hours research to find the Breeders Cup winner Fort Larned this year, it was "only" a 9/1 winner and it meant looking in every nook and cranny of the form and reading up on a lot of American stuff I don't know as readily as the UK / Irish stuff, but it is worth it to be able to say we've had the Classic winner two years in a row. I don't know of a single other service who can say that.
SMS Service
We've managed to cut a few costings here and some of you will notice the monthly cost has come down from £12 to £10 recently; this pricing will continue for the foreseeable future. Indeed if there is a change to be made in 2013 the cost may come down a little further again. Clients who subscribe to six month and annual packages get the SMS service free.
That's all for now. 2012 has been a rollercoaster year, no two ways about that. We haven't been helped by outside events like the recent closure of Southwell, but we are extremely confident of getting back on track for 2013. We'll be in the office until around midday tomorrow, after tomorrow's mail the next e-mail you'll get will be on Boxing Day / St. Stephen's Day.
I'd like to take this opportunity to wish all our clients a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. It isn't an easy time for everybody, which I think does get forgotten, but where possible enjoy the festive drinks and try not to get too brassed off with the in laws!
From Dan, Henry and the Strikeline team.
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