7.00 Kempton Kingscroft 4pts win @ 7/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, guaranteed)
A really good contest, but Kingscroft is still improving, he looks to have scope off his current handicap mark, and he can be excused his recent run at the course as he was turned out too quickly (tends to need a week plus). He comes here following a 14 day "break", and Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride. There is pace in the race and a prominent sit in behind it should suit fine, he is also drawn reasonably well which is important. I make him more like a 5/1 shot on my book and anything around 13/2 or better should be taken and is too big.
7.30 Kempton My Scat Daddy 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed) - N/R
Has at least won a race, and some of his form is working out well. However, he has had well documented breathing problems which seemed to hamper him the last time he ran, in a better race at this course. He has been off three months since, which would suggest to me that they have done more work on his breathing, and as a relatively lightly raced three year old, there is every chance they might get the problem sorted and that today might be the day to back him. The booking of a top jockey with a 3/19 19% strike rate on the stable's horses this year looks significant, and the stables last two runners include a 33/1 winner and a 25/1 close fourth.
Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: -66.00 / year: -64.20
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