Tuesday 18th December 2012

Two races of interest for Tuesday.

12.50 Lingfield Devout 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

10/1 is all wrong on Devout, provided she is both fit to run, and sees out her race better than in her three maiden runs in May and June. She was reported to work well at home by Osborne before her debut, but his two year olds were held up in March and didn't really hit stride until later in the season. The selection was one of the first to run, and she had three quick runs before being put away. She showed good speed on all starts, and indeed on her final run at Windsor had no problem laying up with some decent sorts until soft ground got the better of her. Her sire's progeny go really well on the all weather, and the stable did a really good job of getting her a basement handicap mark I feel she might be able to improve on. The money has come this morning and we're on at the right prices.

2.20 Lingfield

Bull Bay 3pts win @ 7/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

Duke of Aricabeau 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, guaranteed)

I'm not mad on any of the older horses here, Parisian Pyramid looks short enough from a wide draw and Speak The Truth will need plenty of luck in running. Bull Bay is selected following a win in a weak maiden. The pace in that race was strong, however, and the time compared favourably with others on the same card. Bull Bay was game in fighting off a rival who was held up for a late run, he will have learned plenty and he has enough early speed to make him of interest from stall eight. His handicap mark of OR65 might underestimate him, and a 7lb claimer who knows him well takes the ride.

Duke Of Aricabeau  is ridden by Simon Pearce, so we have to factor that into the bet - he isn't the best jockey in the world and is probably just about value for a 3lb claim. The selection represents a stable in good nick, however, and his run behind Ginger Ted and Beat The Bell last time out was really promising. He was kept wide all the way and had to switch around horses to make his challenge, finishing clear of horses of the ability he faces today. His jockey will have to be switched on from stall 11, and we have to assume he is fit after 56 days off, but the stable have had success with switchers just lately and the selection is too big at the current prices.

Profit & loss: day: -2.00 / month: -83.00 / year: -81.20