4.15 Kempton Run It Twice 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 5/1 Stan James, Betpack.com, 9/2 generally guaranteed)
A really interesting nursery. I've played each-way because I can't see the selection out of the three and I think he'll drift on course, so make sure to get a guaranteed price. Canadian Run looks classy, but he has to give our selection plenty of weight and although impressive, he was keen last time out and doesn't strike me as the type to follow up. Run It Twice is a typical Evans improver, thriving with racing and probably improving too. He ran really well behind Yaroom last time out when not best placed on a speed favouring track, pulling away from the field with the winner. His jockey is riding really well and makes the trip from Lingfield for the ride.
4.45 Kempton Tuscan Gold 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, 20/1 generally guaranteed)
Laura Mongan has an excellent 5/31 16% strike rate in all weather races of 13 furlongs plus over the last five years, returning a level stakes profit of +35.50. Tuscan Gold is worth betting at the prices given she has had a recent winner and the horse is returning to a surface he looks well enough handicapped on. That form came when he was with Sir Mark Prescott, but he showed at Goodwood in 2011 and Newbury this summer that he is still capable of a high level of form on the flat. This staying test will suit him, and if he appreciated the return to the surface, we could see the best of him in quite a while. A small each-way interest could pay dividends.
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Afternoon Bet:
One for Wednesday so far, we will have an update before 3.00pm with a possible additional selection.
2.00 Lingfield Handsome Molly 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 9/1 (Totesport, Betfred, VC Bet, Independents, guaranteed)
Steps up in trip which on breeding will suit. Was given an easy introduction over a mile at Kempton and stayed on well near the finish, revealing herself to be a scopey horse who travelled quite well on the surface. The opposition look average today, and given David Elsworth's good recent form and record with fillies, including at this time of year, she is well worth supporting each-way at early odds which are too big.
Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -62.00 / year: -60.20
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