5.55 Kempton Charter 4pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Charter is by a sire whose progeny have a woeful 4% strike rate on heavy ground, improving to 13% on the all weather. He made a decent debut over seven furlongs at Yarmouth at the end of October, drifting out from 7/2 to 5/1 possibly on account of the heavy ground. The form hasn't worked out but he looks a physically impressive horse, and he looks bound to improve on this more suitable surface. His stable are now in form and their horses are running well and winning, and jockey Tom McLaughlin rode a winner at Lingfield yesterday. He steps back to six furlongs but he didn't look devoid of speed on his debut and if he comes on for the experience, I expect him to win this poor looking contest.
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Afternoon Bets:
One bet for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet, details on that before 3.00pm.
1.30 Lingfield Last Hooray 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/2 (Paddy Power, guaranteed, 5/1 generally guaranteed)
Made a really nice debut at Kempton earlier this month, showing plenty of speed but a bit green under pressure before running on under tender handling towards the business end of the contest. She is bred to be much better than her initial performance, and given that her trainer's juveniles tend to come on for a run she looks well worth supporting against a fairly average field here. Unless the Gosden newcomer is decent, I can't see that much to beat on pedigree and track performance, and I'm not sure what the Noseda filly achieved on her debut in a weak looking maiden. I think the Kempton race was better and we'll back the selection each-way as she looks set to drift a bit on course.
Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -92.00 / year: -90.20
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