Back to business today and we have our first selections of the New Year this afternoon. Henry is back with us now and clients can expect our blog to updated in the next day or two. A losing December means we finished 2012 in the red but six of the seven months since we reverted to our regular staking policy have finished profitably and that is of some comfort after the undoubted low of last April and May.
5.20 Kempton -
4pts stake split evenly between Caldercruix, Time Medicean, Jake The Snake, Aloomaas, Belle Bayardo, Rambo Will, Guest Book at Betfair SP (ie. 0.57pts on each selection for a total of 4pts outlay). Aloomaas - WON @9.69
Make absolutely sure to take Betfair SP!
The shape of this race is really interesting and lends itself to us using our method to turn a profit. The top three take a fair chunk of the market here but there are negatives about each one. Lastkingofscotland tends to find one too good and is up 7lb for beating very little last time out. Gabbiano has proved himself to be a bit of a thug in the past and unless a first time hood brings about an attitude change, he looks one to take on after an absence with his stable not at their very best right now. Fortrose Academy is solid but will need a good pace to get involved and he disappointed at Lingfield last time. Gung Ho Jack has yet to show his best form here and from the outside stall he is also taken on.
That leaves seven outsiders we can split our stake on. Each currently trades at 12/1+ on the exchanges and it is hard to rule any one out. Belle Bayardo and Aloomaas both have recent wins to their name and look to big on their recent form. Guest Book returns from an absence and has a question mark over this trip but is very well handicapped. Rambo Will could get an easy lead and has solid form at this course. Caldercruix has been well supported and is another who goes well here. Jake The Snake is a multiple course winner, and Time Medicean is probably the best of these on his day but hasn't been in form.
The Betfair market will likely push most of the seven out to big enough prices before the off. It is hard enough for trainers, let alone the betting public, to know if some of these are fit after a break and as a result it is nigh on impossible to price up a horses chance accurately. We'll split our stakes evenly across the seven horses at Betfair SP. If you don't have a Betfair account, open one today. One could also take guaranteed prices with fixed odds firms on our selections, but you will not get the same returns we do in the long term so an exchange account is crucial here. At big prices, Betfair SP can far exceed industry SP and that's where we'll make big gains.
The text will be sent as follows: "5.20k numbers 1,4,5,6,8,9, and 10 4pts split stakes" according to the card number of the horses supported.
A four point stake divided between seven horses simply means you place 0.57pts per selection (divide the four by seven). If you bet to £10 per point, your total stake will be £40, with £5.71 being placed on each selection at Betfair SP (40 divided by the seven means £5.71 per selection).
The reason we don't dutch the selections for a uniform profit is, as mentioned before, the prices are so difficult for exchange layers to get right that the probabilities become less uniform as the prices get bigger and it can pay over time to simply split stakes evenly rather than dutching. We'll get some big priced winners from this method this year so get stuck in straight away and try not to be afraid of the change of betting style.
We're here all afternoon to answer any questions, drop us a line if need be!
Profit & loss: day: +0.71 / month: +0.71 / year: +0.71
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