Saturday 23rd February 2013

A busy Saturday for us.

Clients please keep an eye out for an RSA Chase ante post selection around 3.00pm.

1.55 Lingfield Welease Bwian 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A record of 1/21 doesn't inspire confidence but Stuart Williams' sprinter has put in a number of decent performances during this sprint series and he is taken to win the series final this afternoon. On his day he is a strong traveller and given that he is drawn in stall five, he looks very likely to get a tow into this contest from Desert Strike, Waabel, and Putin, who are drawn in stalls 1,2 and 3 and all like to front run. The cards could not have fallen much better for him and if Atzeni can simply ride to his drawn and take a handy sit, he will be in the best position to strike come the home turn. There is a sense that the selection might have been lined up for this series final, his run last time was very promising but he did not get a pace quite strong enough to bring him into it late on - I think he may do this afternoon and 8/1 is too big.

3.40 Kempton Beauty Pageant 3pts win @ 11/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 10/1 Generally guaranteed)

Takes the eye on her fourth start for Dave Evans dropped into 0-70 company for the first time in a long time, in a particularly poor race, with Adam Kirby booked and a first time visor applied. She blew the start badly last time in a much better race and held her own until the two furlong pole. She is a bit of a boom or bust selection but at the prices I feel she is underestimated and probably only has the favourite to been.

3.50 Kempton 

Quinz 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Opening Batsman 2pts win @ 14/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents) - WON

Philip Hobbs brought Cheltenian back from an absence to go very close in a decent hurdle at Doncaster the other day, and I find it interesting he sends Quinz back to contest a race he won two years ago before losing his form. He is probably the best handicapped horse in the race and is 2/2 at the track - not many of these look set to be suited by Kempton's demands. He appeals at the prices and is selected alongside Opening Batsman. Harry Fry's chaser looks very progressive and has a good pull in the weights with the Nicholls' trained second favourite Rolling Aces. He might also enjoy the ground more than that rival and a recent win confirms he is in good heart. The price discrepancy between the two is not merited in my view, and 14/1 looks too big.

Profit & loss: day: +19.00 / month: -10.40 / year: +44.91

Friday 22nd February 2013

Just one for Friday.

3.40 Lingfield Silverware 5pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Silverware's recent polytrack form is beginning to stack up quite well. There is no doubt Light From Mars and Polar Kite, who accounted for the selection at Kempton, have been two of the stars of the winter season with six wins between them, and both still seem to be on the up and up. Silverware cut out the donkey work for them and did really well to battle on and pull clear with them. His penultimate run came over a mile at this track, again the form looks well and he wasn't helped by having to tack across from a wide stall, the trip of a mile stretches him a little too. He looks the best handicapped horse in the race on this surface, and 9/2 looks fair given he has held Al's Memory last twice and that rival is generally half a point shorter. There is plenty of pace on despite the small field, but with Shane Kelly booked I think Dubawi Island might just be held up as an experiment, while Dr. Red Eye has fitness to prove. Once the fractions are kept fair and there is no pace burn up, I think the selection should win from a better draw.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -29.40 / year: +25.91

Wednesday 20th February 2013

One selection for Wednesday evening.

7.30 Kempton Elna Bright 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, guaranteed)

We've backed Elna Bright on both his last starts and I think there is good reason to go in again tonight. We took place money when he finished second at Lingfield in December, before he finished 9/10 after a break in one of the hottest sprint races run all winter at Lingfield a couple of weeks ago. The result doesn't tell the full story though, he tanked along at the head of affairs having drifted badly before the off. He may well have needed the race, and it is interesting he drops into the weakest company he has contested in in quite a while this evening, having dropped from OR86 to OR84 and become eligible for 0-85 handicaps. There isn't much pace on here but that doesn't bother me, the selection actually has plenty of form in small fields and when the pace hasn't been strong - the key is getting him to settle and using his finishing burst wisely. Jimmy Quinn has won on him, and provided the selection settles better here I think he will go close - he has the best speed figure at this track by some way, and the price of the favourite (11/8) looks crazy given he hasn't run at this trip since his debut (well beaten).

____________________________________

Afternoon bet:

One selection for this afternoon. We may have an evening bet in addition, details either way before 5.00pm.

3.55 Doncaster Cocacabana 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

A handicap hurdle with sixteen runners, but one which looks higher on quantity than quality, and many of these have been either out of form or have questions to answer regarding current well being, and haven't been doing it on the track this winter. Cocacabana is one of a small number of exceptions. He made his debut for Peter Bowen in January and performed respectably, before staying on best of anything from off the pace on heavy ground, again at Ffos Llas, earlier this month in a stronger looking contest than this. He has always given the impression that better ground will suit him, and the transfer to Bowen - who specialises in spring and summer horses running on good ground - would seem to suggest the new trainer thinks there is room for manoeuvre off his current handicap mark on better ground. He is proven over three miles, and the way he stayed on at Ffos Llas would suggest a stronger pace at this trip, combined with good going, can bring about improvement. Having won in February and March of last year, I would suggest he is a spring horse and I think Bowen has him out a little early to rack up a couple of penalties and have some fun with him at the spring festivals. Anything in double figures is too big, and we'll play each-way.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -24.40 / year: +30.91

Tuesday 19th February 2013

Two races of interest for this afternoon.

3.25 Southwell

Abi Scarlet 3pts win @ 6/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)

Imprimis Tagula 2pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

An interesting race, and while Light Burst might pick these up and carry them, I feel he is as likely to find little off the bridle or fail to act act the track - as such he makes no appeal as a horse with no fibresand experience. Piceno hasn't really done it this winter, and Flying Pickets seems to have one level he operates at, but he isn't much better than OR70 at his best. Abi Scarlet is a two time course winner representing Hughie Morrison, whose horses have an awesome record at this track. She hasn't run in 153 days, but Morrison is well capable of readying horses and she makes plenty of appeal at the prices. It is interesting she is kept in training off a mark of OR80, and connections presumably feel there is more to come, especially given she is quite lightly raced. The concern would be stall three, but if Hayley can stay well away from the rail she will have every chance.

Imprimis Tagula received a very "eye catching" ride last time, and has now become very well handicapped. A look at the video of his last race would basically suggest to me that it wasn't the day, and he has taken plenty of overnight support and betting even before 9am. This would be in line with the owner's general modus operandi and if Abi Scarlet doesn't land the spoils, I'd like to have something running onto Alan Bailey's horse too, with the stable having snapped a losing run just lately.

5.10 Southwell Follow The Flag 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Described by his trainer as "bone idle", Follow The Flag tends to do what Follow The Flag wants to do, but he is another who is well handicapped even on this winter's efforts. He has had excuses for his last two runs, and there is a strong suggestion today's race will be set up perfectly for him. Our Ivor and Miami Gator are highly likely to take each other on again, and if Follow The Flag is still travelling well in behind them down the straight, he can pick them up if he consents to run on. It is interesting his best Southwell form has been in small fields, and two non-runners leave us with the dead eight here which will suit him perfectly. A new jockey can sometimes work wonders for a old horse, and John Fahy rode a winner for the stable the other day and has been seen to good effect for most of the winter (10% strike rate, +18.74 l.s.p.). 

Profit & loss: day: -4.60 / month: -13.40 / year: +41.91

Monday 18th February 2013

Two races of interest for Monday.

3.15 Wolverhampton 

Lord Of The Dance 2.5pts win @ 16/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

Abhaath 2.5pts win @ 18/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

An interesting contest, in particular because it looks like a pace burn up may be on the cards - Bussa and Nant Saeson duelled for the lead last time they met, add in Arabian Flight who sits handy and Outlaw Torn, a confirmed front runner, and you have a strongly run race on the cards. As a result, I've taken two against the field who might capitalise if they go off too fast. 

Lord Of The Dance was impressive in beating Bussa off 6lb lower on his penultimate run, and was unsuited by a small field last time out. He also broke awkwardly and was forced wide that day - just about nothing went right and today's bigger field will suit much better. He has already won twice this winter, loves the track and is overpriced. Abhaath has been in and out since joining Ron Harris, but I think Harris' horses are in better form now than they have been all winter and there is scope for improvement off a mark of OR63. In addition, his course and distance win from last August suggests holding him up off a strong pace is the way to ride him - he hasn't had many chances in big fields and if he breaks on terms today, Luke Morris might be able to nurse him into contention and challenge close home.

5.25 Wolves Scamperdale 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Totesport, Betfred, VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, guaranteed)

Looks to have the beating of the favourite Thereabouts on a line through Berlusca based on today's weights, and drops back down to a class 6 after failing to figure in a better contest last time out. I don't think the standard to slow polytrack suited hold up horses last time, and the selection wasn't helped by bad luck in running on at least two occasions. As an eleven year old, he is becoming hard to predict, but he probably remains the star of Brian Baugh's stable and is of interest off his lowest handicap mark for some time. 10/1 is very fair and represents good each-way value with 1/4 odds paid and an interesting formline with the favourite.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -8.80 / year: +46.51

Saturday 16th February 2013

Three interests for this afternoon.

2.40 Ascot Tatenen 5pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed - advised yesterday)

Loves Ascot and has likely been laid out for this contest since the postponement of the January 19th fixture he normally wins at. Tatenen seems to have been around for ages but he is only a nine year old and he might still be progressive - despite fading on a track / ground which doesn't suit him at Cheltenham last time out, he put in a superb round of jumping and that is a major positive at this track. Many of those in opposition this afternoon have other targets and are using this as a prep; I expect Tatenen to be spot on and if he gets in a rhythm at his fences I think he'll be hard to catch. A 15c Rule 4 will now apply following a non runner.

3.50 Ascot Somersby 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Another standing dish around this track where course form is so important. Somersby is usually extremely reliable around here, and consistent with it. He is probably exposed and done improving, but that doesn't stop him being a very good horse and if anything is to beat him today, they'll probably have to post an RPR of 170+ in my view - Sombersby has no problem posting RPR169's around here and his duels with Master Minded over the years represents top class form. I'm not sure Cue Card, Captain Chris or Finian's Rainbow are quite as good at Ascot, and 5/1 looks a great price.

4.35 Lingfield Harry Buckle 5pts win @ 3/1 (Totesport, Boylesports, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed) - WON

One of the horses of the winter in my view, and I see no reason why he can't keep improving. The race didn't pan out for him last time and I don't think he enjoyed being in front. The shape of this race and likely pace looks set to suit him a bit better, and my feeling is he remains well handicapped. 3/1 guaranteed is available in a few places and I think it is well worth taking.

Profit & loss: day: +6.00 / month: +1.20 / year: +56.51

Friday 15th February 2013

Quite a busy Friday evening for us.

5.00 Wolverhampton Whiteflats 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 3rd @ 16/1

Followers of the Strikeline service will know Derek Shaw does well with 3yo sprinters, both in low grade maidens and handicaps, and particularly at this time of the year. In past years, we've advised Shwakantango @ 50/1 to win a handicap, and Nially Noo @ 40/1 to win a maiden, both at Southwell and representing the Shaw stable. Indeed the trainer should have a good line on this form because he trains Twist And Twirl, who finished second @ 66/1 to the favourite here, Dangerous Age, last time out. That horse looks plenty short enough at a best price 13/8 fav, and Whiteflats is another Shaw horse who merits attention against her at a price. 

The selection showed much more than he had previously on his third last month at Lingfield over six furlongs. He showed good speed but was hampered after a furlong which no doubt cost him energy-wise late on. He faded, which was no surprise, but he had no problem laying up with Upavon, who posted an RPR of 81 in winning, or Hard Walnut, who won next time out. Indeed the well beaten third, Sand Boy, also won next time out and the fourth, Laudation and sixth, Irish Dream, both finished runner up on their next starts. The early pace was pretty uncompromising, and I think it is worth chancing Whiteflats in this evening's donkey derby given that he showed up so well and has been awarded a mark of OR45. Connections have gone to the trouble of booking a good lightweight jockey who is enjoying an excellent winter, and stall one is probably the plum draw if the selection tries to make all. With the dead eight lining up, we'll protect our stake with a part each-way bet.

5.30 Wolverhampton

Chateau Lola 3pts  win @ 15/2 (Totesport, Betfred, VC Bet, William Hill, guaranteed)

Rightcar 3pts win @ 15/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Chateau Lola missed the break here on Monday and ran into trouble at various stages of the race. She has done well with the draw again and been berthed in stall 3; if she can get out sharper today she probably has the winning of a poorer looking contest. I mentioned the other day that she has been quite consistent this winter for one of her ability, and I think she will pop up sooner rather than later.

Peter Grayson's string are currently in the best form I've seen them since his heydey in 2007. It is hard to know how long that will last, but his Rightcar is another who looks attractively weighted and he is worth supporting. He had excuses at Kempton last time out, not getting the clearest of runs, and he has the speed for five furlongs which I'm not sure many of these have. He is another who needs things to drop right, but the stable's favoured claimer takes 5lb off and four career wins for a horse in this company is evidence that he has no problem getting the job done on his day.

6.00 Wolverhampton Jezza 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON @ 9/2

Jezza was held up in a slowly run race last time over two miles here, and he caught the eye making a sweeping mid race move under a 7lb claimer who was brave enough in trying to negate a pace which was never going to suit him. Despite a smaller field, this looks like it might be run more truly, and the step back two furlongs in trip will suit a horse who travels really well. The booking of Luke Morris is always a positive, and it is worth noting that the selection carries weight well - his four career wins have come when carrying 9-8, 9-6, 9-12 and 9-4 in handicaps.

Profit & loss: day: +12.20 / month: -4.80 / year: +50.51

Thursday 14th February 2013

One selection for Kempton this evening.

7.30 Kempton The Absent Mare 3pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

The Absent Mare is in the form of her life at present, having posted a career best rating last time out over this course and distance, and she is selected at a decent looking price to defeat some higher rated horses here. The selection had a long break between March and November last, and was having only her fourth run back when third behind Llamadas three weeks ago. That performance can be marked up slightly because she found trouble on the home turn, travelling well but having to wait for a gap to appear, and she might just have won with a clear run given the momentum it seemed to cost her and the eventual beatn distance of 1/4 length. This is a better race, but if anything I think the likely better pace set by classier horses will serve her well - she travels fairly easily through her races. Favourite Rysbrack has to prove he is well handicapped off OR75 having won a weak looking Jumpers' Bumper last time out, and I felt both Murcar (tired) and Thecornishcockney (seemed to lose his action slightly close home) were opposable based on their last runs. A couple of the outsiders seem to be well held on recent form, and I'm not sure there is quite enough pace here to get Pheonix Flight involved (I'm not sure he is a good ride for a claimer either). The Absent MAre has been put up 2lb for that last run, but she has become quite consistent of late and, given that she appears to be improving as a five year old and is a course and distance winner, she is selected as a confident each-way choice.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: -17.00 / year: +38.31

Wednesday 13th February 2013

The value this afternoon is at short prices. We may have an evening bet, details to be released before 5.00pm.

1pt double on this afternoon's selections - 4/1 and 15/8 generally available with guaranteed odds

3.00 Lingfield Fearless Lad 4pts win @ 4/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, William Hill, independents, guaranteed)

Jimmy The Snooze doesn't set an exacting standard here and although the selection has already been clipped from a general 5/1, I like to see money when this stable is concerned and I would make the selection an 11/4 shot against the favourite. He travelled really well on debut held up well in rear, and stayed on strongly at the finish. He was quite well hidden by his jockey, and replays show he was difficult to pull up and was upsides the 1st and 2nd shortly after the finish line despite being eased. The kind ride he received that day could be rewarded here, and at the prices he looks the one to be on in what I think will develop into a match unless one of the other three improve from nowhere.

3.50 Southwell Dubawi Island 4pts win @ 2/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 15/8 generally guaranteed)

Represents an in form stable with a great record here and has the services of a jockey who has impressed all winter. Despite the short price, I think the selection is the bet of the Southwell card given the opposition here. He should be 2/2 at the track, he loves the surface and I'm quite sure there is further progression to be had off a handicap mark of OR85. Many of those in opposition today have negatives about them, and I think the selection's class will tell. He might have to battle for it late on, but there is no faulting his attitude in my view and I think he should win handy.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -9.00 / year: +46.31

Tuesday 12th February 2013

Chateau Lola missed the break yesterday, forfeiting a good draw and any chance of winning.

One for today.

3.15 Southwell Red Aggressor 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed where possible)

Clive Brittain's horses returning from an absence of 100 days or more have maintained an Actual versus Expected ratio of 1.19 (quite impressive, for those who aren't into statistics!) over the past ten seasons, and that alone is one reason to expect Red Aggressor to be tuned up for this return to action after an absence. He raced only twice last summer and clearly wasn't right, but previously kept much more exalted company than this, strong and all as this contest is. The selection retains a Lincoln entry, which is interesting, and it is interesting Clive has persevered with him. The trainer's horses traditionally go very well here, and sire Red Clubs' progeny boast an 18% strike rate at the track. Many of these look exposed, but although it takes a leap of faith to trust Red Aggressor off a mark of OR90, there are reasons to suggest he is big at the prices. I'd make him a 16/1 shot in this company and, with a good draw and the stable's preferred jockey interestingly taking his second ride of the year, double carpet is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -3.00 / month: +0.00 / year: +55.31

Monday 11th February 2013

One selection for Monday afternoon, and whether it wins or not I'm confident the price is a few points out.

2.30 Wolverhampton Chateau Lola 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 10/1 (Coral, William Hill, guaranteed, 10/1 Sporting Bet, Blue Square, 888 Sport)

A career record of 1/21 might have people wondering why Chateau Lola is worth recommending so confidently, but she showed almost nothing on her first eight starts for Derek Shaw, who brings along his juveniles very gradually. Since then, she has actually been quite consistent on the all weather, winning at Southwell and finishing runner up over this course and distance twice. She actually posted a career best  RPR in December when second to Lord Buffhead, all the more notable given the Shaw stable's horses were out of form at the time - they usually get going around now and three winners in the last fourteen days as well as a few improved performances are evidence that his string are well in themselves. The selection ran five days ago at Kempton, but the Racing Post have completely failed to pick up on the fact that she cornered very badly around Kempton's extremely sharp five furlong bend, and wasn't given anything like a hard time by Franny Norton once her chance had gone (finished back on the bridle). That kindness could be rewarded today back at a course she seems to enjoy. A handicap mark of OR50 offers room to improve, and a stall 4 draw and the presence of Joe Fanning in the plate are big positives. She has also won at Southwell, so today's forecast standard to slow polytrack might be no trouble to her. I think she should actually be around the price Love Club is - 11/2 - and as such I'm inclined to have a decent stake even though she is moderate. The re-application of the visor she won in for the first time this winter is the icing on the cake, it looks to me like today is the day and I wouldn't be surprised to see on course support. We'll play aggressively, with a minimal loss incurred should she run a place, and a 54pt profit should she win.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: +3.00 / year: +58.31

Sunday 10th February 2013

Just one for Sunday, at Southwell.

4.50 Southwell Victorian Bounty 2pts each-way @ 28/1 (Sporting Bet, 25/1 VC Bet, Ladbrokes, Bet 365, independents)

It is often these days to tell if a price drift on the exchanges in the early morning is the result of inside knowledge that a horse won't be fit and / or trying, or simply a case of bots pushing out prices where other horses have been backed. I am inclined to think that the exchange price on Victorian Bounty (matched at 50.0 for £26) was a case of the latter, it has now reverted to around 30.0 which is still very big. Connections are making an 850km round trip to Southwell for this race, and I think it is quite unlikely they are going to that trouble for an afternoon gallop or to get the horses handicap mark down. The selection has won once and finished third in two runs at the track, the latter coming last October in a much better contest than this which has worked out well. He has since dropped 5lb in the handicap to a rating of OR65, 4lb lower than the mark he defied on heavy ground at Windsor on his next run after that Southwell third. He also possesses the best speed figure in this line up at the course, and is well drawn in stall five. Tony Newcombe's stable had their first winner of the all weather season last week, with Spellmaker winning for today's jockey, William Carson. The caveat here is that Victorian Bounty steps up to seven furlongs for just the second time in his career - he pulled too hard on the first occasion and finished last, on Polytrack. Fibresand is a different ballgame, though - horses are much better able to stretch out in trip because the nature of the surface dictates that early speed rules. It is much harder to come from behind on this surface, it's depth meaning it is difficult to quicken late on, fibresand being kicked in horse and jockey's face does not help the cause of finishers either. On this slower surface that he seems to enjoy, off the right mark and up in trip, it is hoped the selection can break well and take a prominent early sit. Carson generally strikes me as a clever jockey, but if instructions are to hold the selection up for a late run to conserve stamina, I don't think we'll have much chance. If he is ridden forward, he has the previous class to boss this lot and hopefully hold on down the stretch when the hard work has been done. Quotes of 22/1+ are far too big.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +10.00 / year: +65.31

Saturday 9th February 2013

It is not a day for the faint hearted, little appeals in the 2/1 - 10/1 bracket and as such, the laws of probability dictate that a bit of place money this afternoon might be our best bet  to nick a small profit - saying that, there are opportunities to be had, and we only have to be correct once and we've had a very good day for ourselves indeed.

3.35 Newbury - The Betfair Hurdle

Cause Of Causes 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed - use a bookmaker paying 5 places - Bet 365, Paddy Power, many independents)

Lyvius 1pt win @ Betfair AND 1pt place @ Betfair SP

Into Wain 1pt win @ Betfair SP AND 1pt place @ Betfair SP (use a fixed odds bookie paying 5 places if no Betfair access)

A really interesting renewal, and a proper handicap to light up a Saturday afternoon along with the fantastic Leopardstown card featuring the Irish Hennessy. Without going into exhaustive detail, I think there's a good chance of a shock here because I can pick holes in a lot of the form of the shorter priced horses, and have reasons to doubt most of the others. I'd rather side here with horses proven in big field handicaps, and a horse in Lyvius who seems to enjoy the prevailing conditions and has won at the course impressively.

Cause Of Causes has been doing it all season, there is no doubt he is very progressive and in the form of his life. He fits the bill very well as a horse who goes on any ground and seems to relish a big field and strong pace. He is just too big for me at 16/1 and I make him an 11/1 shot in my book. We're getting 4/1 on the place here with 5 places paid if you shop around, meaning our outlay on the race is as good as covered if he gets in the frame.

Lyvius represents the powerful Henderson team, and it is interesting Andrew Tinkler (who has been riding quite well) is getting down to his minimum of 10-0 to ride him. The selection bombed out at Ascot, but he was visually impressive at this track when defeating Edgardo Sol handily, and returned to a track which seems to suit, on ground which will suit, he seems overpriced to me given the fact that he is unexposed. He was sent off just 14/1 for the Lanzarote, I've said in the past I'm always happy to forgive one bad run and 40/1 is too big.

Whoever is laying Into Wain at 120 on Betfair is high, in my view. This is another horse who is unexposed over hurdles, and travels really well through his races. In fields with ten runners or more, he has only been out of the first two once in five hurdles starts fitting the criteria. Two wins and a short head second to Petit Robin (33/1 with bookmakers here) means he has a progressive profile. A poor run at ascot is forgiven, his trainer is adament he didn't get home and I think this track will suit better. I would like to think I handicap Ascot better than most, some horses love it, some hate it, the ground is of a certain type and, at Newbury, Into Wain certainly rates a bet. An excellent young 3lb claimer is a shrewd booking.

3.45 Lingfield Elna Bright 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

With stablemates Even Stevens and Thunderball in stall one and two, and Fratellino also in the line up, I would think there will be plenty of pace on here for a medium sized field. Elna Bright has been off for 65 days, but he has won from similar breaks on two occasions in the past and I'm prepare to overlook my 30 day reappearance criteria for sprinters here. The selection has some good speed figures at this track, and although this is a step up in class, Peter Crate has his small string in fine form and if the selection is ready to go, he can certainly trouble these late on from stall 4. Jimmy Quinn rides and he has been having an excellent winter.

4.50 Leopardstown Leavethelighton 2pts win AND 1pts place @ Betfair SP

It isn't usual for us to back one in an Irish bumper, but Leavethelighton caught my eye behind the monstrous Golantilla at Cork on his first bumper win. He looks an athletic sort, and I had it in mind that he might appreciate better ground in time (which I think he'll just about get this afternoon). He ran quite well - it is impossible to know if fitness was an issue but he shouldn't lack for it today - but what caught my eye at the time was that he hugged the inside rail in the straight, which visual evidence suggested put him at quite a disadvantage. He boxed on well but those outside him made their challenges wider and seemed to be favoured by doing so. It is interesting that connections send him to Leopardstown for this decent looking bumper, and with two short ones taking a chunk out of the market we might just get an inflated SP on the machine.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +14.00 / year: +69.31

Friday 8th February 2013

One selection for this evening. Tomorrow's cards are excellent and it will be a busy weekend for us.

7.00 Wolverhampton Wild Desert 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Wild Desert is hardly a win machine, but he does go well on the all weather and was a relative latecomer to the sphere - he had only two runs on artificial surfaces before October 2011, when he was rising seven. He has become quite consistent on the surface and2012 form behind Al Khawaneej and Rosewood Lad looks quite strong in the context of this race. His reappearance behind Stand Guard in January was a fair run, and his effort last time can be ignored - he probably went off too hard under his inexperienced pilot. It really interests me that George Baker takes over tonight. This is a drop in class and the last time Wild Desert won, it was under 10-0 top weight having had a relatively easy time on the front end. One has to think he might get the lead tonight, and he is back off his last winning mark of OR75. Baker was seen to really good effect from the front at Christmas giving Woolfall Treasure a blinder from the front, and although there are reservations about stable form (and indeed the switch to John Gallagher in the first place), he looks worth chancing at anything around 7/1+.

________________________________________________

Afternoon Bet:

One for this afternoon, a possible evening bet will follow before 5.00pm.

4.00 Kempton Baile Anrai 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Many of Ian William's string have been out of form, indeed he has not had a National Hunt winner this winter so far. The weather explains a lot of that, the stable have been badly affected by conditions and weren't able to work their jumpers as much as they would have liked. However, he had a chaser run eye catchingly well at Ludlow the other day, and with Baile Anrai (pronounced Ball-ya On-ree) having a recent run behind him, he may be approaching peak fitness and this looks a winnable opportunity. The selection ran quite well last time over course and distance, in a race the front two have franked since. It was a higher grade of contest than today's race, and despite never getting to grips with the first two he stuck on ok for a distant fourth. I would expect him to come on a bundle for that run, which was only his second of the season. The handicap mark of OR129 is very favourable, and if Harry Skelton rides him a little more aggressively than last time, and if he has indeed come on for that run, then I feel he can go close to winning - his run behind Invictus, Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti this time last year (fell when travelling well) suggests he might be a bit better than this lot on his day.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: +27.00 / year: +82.31

Thursday 7th February 2013

Southway Queen was a non runner earlier this afternoon.

One selection for this evening.

5.35 Wolves Hierarch 4pts win @ 11/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Make sure to get a guaranteed price as this one could drift on course by around a point.

Hierarch is a horse who responds well for amateur handling - he has won twice under Alice Haynes, and has been going well recently for Siobhan Miller, who is quite tidy for a 7lb claimer. The selection probably posted a career best last time out behind Jack My Boy, a horse who is progressive and would probably be 7/4fav for this contest were he involved. He needs to come off a decent pace, and with the likes of Bussa, Dhhamaan and Haywain likely to race close to the lead and set a decent gallop, this might just be set up for a closer. Stakes are kept relatively moderate, because he will need everything to drop right and the claimer to get some luck in running, but he is an in form horse who is on a decent handicap mark, and there aren't many in here with a similar profile. I make him a 9/2 chance, anything 11/2+ should be taken.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +35.00 / year: +90.31

Wednesday 6th February 2013

5.35 Kempton Brandy Snapping 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Sporting Bet, or take 20/1 Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Careful on the staking here, note the extra 1pt win.

This is a dire contest, and although Brandy Snapping is moderate herself, there is some suggestion that she might be overpriced here off a mark of just OR47. The selection ran an eye catching race last time out over twelve furlongs, pulling too hard off a moderate early pace over a trip which probably stretches her. She appeared to get tired before getting hampered, but stayed on quite well again towards the finish. Her best previous effort came over today's course and distance, and the drop back to ten furlongs looks set to suit her. Her effort over ten came last March, and that maiden form might just be a little better than what is on offer here, so there is hope given that she has been dropped 2lb by the handicapper since her last run. She is well drawn, fitness won't be an issue, and if she has enough ability to win a little race, conditions suggest that tonight's race might be the right one for her.

8.05 Kempton Captain Kendall 4pts win @ 9/4 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

A short enough price so I've kept stakes to 4pts. Saying that, I make the selection a 15/8 shot here and I think he is a progressive sprinter, so I'm happy to support him against horses who look more exposed. The selection's last run came over seven furlongs at Lingfield, he saw plenty of daylight and probably wasn't suited by the step up to seven furlongs. He is well drawn tonight, and this race looks loaded with pace - I expect that to suit Captain Kendall down to the ground. We're taking the chance that the gaps come at the right time, but the handicap mark looks right and Adam Kirby, who has been nothing short of excellent this winter, takes the ride.

_______________________________________

Afternoon bets:

One selection for this afternoon, a possible evening bet will follow - details at 4.00pm.

2.00 Southwell Marshall Art 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, 10/1 Totesport, Betfred, VC Bet, Coral, guaranteed) - WON

A wide draw was what you wanted yesterday and there is every chance today will be the same. A chance is taken here on Marshall Art, who has run here before and actually travelled ok when a 100/1 chance in a maiden but was completely outclassed in the end. He has decent recent form for Dave Evans, whose stable are having a fine winter, and his early speed and prominent style of racing are perfect for this course. He will need to get a good early position, but the 5lb claimer rode him last time out and was able to get him out early and sit on the lead - he was taken on for the lead over seven furlongs on that occasion, the drop to six should be no problem this afternoon. We'll cover the stake with a part each-way bet. He appeals as the bet of the card at Southwell.

Profit & loss: day: +38.50 / month: +39.00 / year: +94.31

Tuesday 5th February 2013

The return of Southwell today is particularly welcome for us, given how profitable it has been for us over the years. Hats off to all the staff who managed to get the meeting back on in what must have been difficult circumstances.

We have to selections for Tuesday.

3.40 Southwell Mazovian 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 11/1 Generally guaranteed)

Southwell is expected to ride Standard To Slow this afternoon, which will tend to bring course specialists to the fore and with only four of the nine runners here having won at Southwell, there is some value in how the market has been priced up. Mazovian is very interesting at double figure odds. The selection has a really good record here and represents a small trainer whose horses have been running very well this winter. He is back on a winning handicap mark, and although this is a higher class of race than he generally runs in, the top four in the weights look opposable. There is also some statistical suggestion that U.S.A. bred horses do even better when the going description contains the word "slow"; also horses carrying weights less than 8-07 in handicaps have a profitable record when the going is slow - Mazovian qualifies on that stat here. Noel Garbutt, who has won on the horse before, claims 7lb, and given that the horses' four wins have all come under claiming riders, it looks a shrewd move. With question marks about the ability of many of his rivals to handle prevailing conditions, the selection makes plenty of each-way appeal at the prices.

4.40 Southwell Mazij 3pts win @ 16/1 (Coral, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

Mazij is a bit of a moody mare who tends to throw in a shocker and follow it up with an easy win, with that in mind she is probably a "boom or bust" selection and as likely to finish last as first. She is a course and distance winner, however, and a quick look at her form will tell you she is much better in small fields. She likes to get her own way in front and as a relatively small horse, she doesn't seem to enjoy company or being bustled about between horses. A small field today should be right up her street, and if she can sit handy and stay out of trouble she might have a going day. The trainer's horses have been running better than market expectations just lately, and her last run wasn't as bad as the formbook suggests - she was still in the lead a furlong or so from home and was eased when her chance had gone. Anything 12/1+ is fair.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +0.50 / year: +55.81

Sunday 3rd February 2013

Another nice winner with Emerald Wilderness landing 12/1 odds yesterday, Tanerko Emery traded 1.26 in running and we were close to additional profits on the day.

One small interest for this afternoon.

3.10 Lingfield Lady Farah 3pts win Betfair SP (or take 8/1 guaranteed)

An odds on favourite could mean an inflated Betfair SP here. Lady Farah represents Robert Cowell, whose sprinters have been in fine form this winter. She is bred to be very good, and looked a physically imposing filly on debut where she made eye catching mid race headway before fading close home. She may just have been a little tired and if she makes normal improvement for that initial racecourse experience, she might rattle this favourite who, although more experienced, doesn't look a world beater. She will have to have come on plenty for the run, but with a double figure price looking likely on the exchanges, the chance is worth taking to relatively small stakes.

Profit & loss: day: -3.00 / month: +10.50 / year: +65.81

Saturday 2nd February 2013

Some excellent action this afternoon, two races really interest me and we'll have two bets in both.

2.05 Ffos Las

Tanerko Emery 4pts win @ 4/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, independents, guaranteed)

El Dancer 1pt each-way @ 28/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 28/1 Sporting Bet, 25/1 VC Bet, guaranteed)

An interesting renewal of a contest that is now a limited handicap. The top two in the betting look the best horses here, but of the pair I fancy the Pipe's Tanerko Emery and I think there is juice in the price at 4/1 guaranteed. He bears all the hallmarks of a plot horse, and his ownership would suggest this has been the target all season. There is a question mark over the trip, but connections have presumably had this day in mind all along and he gets plenty of weight off Oscar Dara. In addition, Oscar Dara looked a bit tired at the end of the Lanzarote and this gruelling two and a half miles may come too soon.

One horse with no question marks about ground, trip or recent form is El Dancer. He is far too big at 25/1+ and I'd make him a 16/1 shot in my book. He travels well into his races, he is a fine big horse and the big field won't bother him. His form behind African Gold looks most interesting and may have been underestimated. Connections have a 484 mile round trip to contend with and this is their only entry on the card - they clearly feel it is worth the hassle and I wouldn't be at all surprised if they picked up some prize money.

3.30 Lingfield

Spirit Of Sharjah 2.5pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Emerald Wilderness 2.5pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Potentially lots of pace on here with Verse Of Love in stall one likely to make it, and Loyalty, Grey Mirage and potentially one or two others who like to race prominently. That might just set this up for a closer and I've selected two against the field. Spirit Of Sharjah is really well handicapped on his old form and although his defeat of Chapter And Verse last time should not be taken literally, it did show he is on good terms with himself. He is generally thought of as a seven furlong horse, but went close here over a mile when racing on the unfavourable (at the time) inside rail and he probably deserves another chance at the trip.

Emerald Wilderness has been in good form and ran close to his best last week behind Robin Hoods Bay. He is generally thought of as a ten furlong specialist, but he has taken a keen hold on more than one occasion and with the likelihood of a manic pace on the cards, his strong finishing ability and stamina might come into play in the final furlong. This could be set up for him and at the prices he is well worth supporting too.

Profit & loss: day: +22.50 / month: +13.50 / year: +68.81

Friday 1st February 2013

Dvinsky never looked like getting the easy lead he needs this afternoon, but I can see him popping up at a big price soon. Canadian Run was a non-runner so money back on our main bet.

One interest for this evening.

6.00 Wolverhampton Jumbo Prado 6pts win @ 5/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed)

A really interesting race. Drawn in stall 2 and 3 we have the pace, Outlaw Torn and Miami Gator, both ridden by 7lb claimers and there is a chance this will be run at a decent gallop as such. The pace should be even at least, and that will suit a few of these, including Jumbo Prado who has improved on his last two starts. He won comfortably on his penultimate run having travelled best and finished second to Monzino last time out. Interestingly, that was on standard to slow polytrack, as the times suggested, and he was beaten by a deep surface specialist in Monzino, who has winning fibresand form. The slow surface makes it harder to quicken from the rear, Monzino already had a length and a half on Jumbo Prado on the home turn but the pair pulled well clear of the pack which included our Monday winner Lord Of The Dance. It probably wasn't a bad race for the grade and Jumbo Prado looks well handicapped here off OR63. It might have been a better contest than the one Goldstorm won last time out- a tenuous line through Dundrum Dancer would suggest Jumbo Prado can hold the favourite here - and at 9/2+, I think he looks at least a point too big. We'll have a decent stake on given there are no doubts about recent form and the generally progressive profile of the horse.

______________________________________________

Afternoon Bets:

Both our selections yesterday evening ran well, but Adam Kirby set a steady pace on the favourite which won the race. It was a fine ride, but Ryan Tate, who rode Jezza, gave that horse a really smart hold up ride which the horse needs, there was little he could do about the pace - for a 7lb claimer I thought he acquited himself really well.

Two for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet - details on that will be released before 4.00pm.

2.00 Lingfield Dvinsky 3pts win @ Betfair SP (or take 8/1 generally guaranteed)

There is nothing we don't know about Dvinsky, he seems to have lost none of his enthusiasm as a 12yo and in a dire contest like this, the courage that has seen him win 19 races in a 223 race career can stand him in good stead. Artful Lady looks a relatively solid favourite, but she is no better than Dvinsky in my view and while she is 13/8, the less fashonable Paul Howling trained sprinter is 8/1. The rest look hard to win with, My Scat Daddy has been punted a couple of times and failed to deliver (I don't think he has the pace for six furlongs) and the rest will struggle to pick up races as we come into spring. The selection is drawn in stall 3, well positioned to get the lead, and I think he might just get his own way in front if Jimmy Quinn - who is riding really well this winter - is aggressive on him. The race will probably be won or lost at the start. I'm going to advise at Betfair SP, with a short priced favourite involved and two of them taking a chunk out of the market, less fashionable horses sometimes go off a point or two bigger than they should.

3.45 Lingfield Canadian Run 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - N/R

A hot contest for three year olds. Canadian Run is selected based on the promise of his penultimate run at Kempton, where he defeated a decent field of two year olds. He travelled really well (in fact was a bit keen) into that contest, and his action when he quickened in the final furlong was that of a horse who really enjoyed the polytrack surface. He ran second a week later behind the improving Jodies Jem, but I think he might need a break between his races and 51 days between then and now looks ideal. Despite his keenness, I marked him down as a horse who would most likely improve for a step up in trip, given his pedigree and the fact that he retains a Derby entry. Visual evidence suggests it took him a while to hit top gear too, and today's 10 furlongs should be perfect for him at this stage of his career. I think that, of his rivals today, he has the most improvement in him off a mark of OR80, and it is good to see David Probert - another jockey having a very good winter - getting a decent ride like this.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -9.00 / year: +46.31

Thursday 31st January 2013

Jat Punjabi fell today, he didn't look a natural chaser which is the chance you take with one first time over fences. The price justified the bet as ever, and he travelled as well as anything - he is one to be interested in back over hurdles under the right circumstances.

One interesting race this evening.

7.20 Wolverhampton

Life Of Laughter 3pts win @ 15/2 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed)

Jezza 2pts win @ 16/1 (Generally, guaranteed)

The favourite looks plenty short enough at a best price of 5/4 here based on what he has achieved, and although he is the most likely winner I feel he has to be taken on here. Much of the opposition are dead wood, but two appeal at decent prices. Life Of Laughter is unexposed at this trip and despite concerns about him staying, he was doing all his best work at the finish on his last two starts and deserves a chance at this trip off a basement mark. His trainer does well with stayers at this track, and a couple of similar sorts have gone very close to winning for him in the past week, suggesting his horses are in good nick. The selection can be excused his last run, the race time suggests they crawled early and as a bumper winner he was never going to get involved over twelve furlongs having been held up detached. It looks time for a staying trips and he appeals at the current odds.

Jezza was a decent horse a couple of years back, but lost the plot completely. He is interesting now having shown a glimmer of hope against better horses on his penultimate start. The stable had a horse go close to winning last week having shown little before, under a good claimer, and it is another good 7lb claimer Ryan Tate who takes the ride on Jezza this evening. He may have resented cheekpieces last time out, and front running in a five runner field is never likely to be his thing. I expect a more patient ride this evening, and this looks like a real class drop with so many bad horses involved. 16/1 is too big.

___________________________________________________

Afternoon Bet:

One for this afternoon, a possible evening bet at Wolverhampton will follow, details released before 4.30pm.

1.20 Towcester Jat Punjabi 4pts win @ 11/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Jat Punjabi is a nine year old, who had no form prior to his debut for Jo Hughed in December where he ran a really nice race and hurdled noticeably fluently against a good horse of Alan King's, Two Rockers. He was the only one to give Two Rockers a bit of a race, and although ultimately well beaten, fitness might have been an issue after a 21 month absence on heavy ground. There is no guarantee he will come on for the run, but it is interesting connections go straight to a Beginner's Chase and clearly they must feel his future is over the bigger obstacles. He is a fine stamp of a chaser, and being out of Karinga Bay he is almost certain to handle the heavy ground and stay well (Karinga Bay's actual versus expected value on heavy ground is better than any other sire). The McCain favourite has struggled with his jumping so far, and Badgers Cove didn't really impress earlier this month. He might just get outdone for class, but the selection certainly appeals as underestimated at the prices - double figures are too big.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: +55.31 / year: +55.31