Friday 1st February 2013

Dvinsky never looked like getting the easy lead he needs this afternoon, but I can see him popping up at a big price soon. Canadian Run was a non-runner so money back on our main bet.

One interest for this evening.

6.00 Wolverhampton Jumbo Prado 6pts win @ 5/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed)

A really interesting race. Drawn in stall 2 and 3 we have the pace, Outlaw Torn and Miami Gator, both ridden by 7lb claimers and there is a chance this will be run at a decent gallop as such. The pace should be even at least, and that will suit a few of these, including Jumbo Prado who has improved on his last two starts. He won comfortably on his penultimate run having travelled best and finished second to Monzino last time out. Interestingly, that was on standard to slow polytrack, as the times suggested, and he was beaten by a deep surface specialist in Monzino, who has winning fibresand form. The slow surface makes it harder to quicken from the rear, Monzino already had a length and a half on Jumbo Prado on the home turn but the pair pulled well clear of the pack which included our Monday winner Lord Of The Dance. It probably wasn't a bad race for the grade and Jumbo Prado looks well handicapped here off OR63. It might have been a better contest than the one Goldstorm won last time out- a tenuous line through Dundrum Dancer would suggest Jumbo Prado can hold the favourite here - and at 9/2+, I think he looks at least a point too big. We'll have a decent stake on given there are no doubts about recent form and the generally progressive profile of the horse.

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Afternoon Bets:

Both our selections yesterday evening ran well, but Adam Kirby set a steady pace on the favourite which won the race. It was a fine ride, but Ryan Tate, who rode Jezza, gave that horse a really smart hold up ride which the horse needs, there was little he could do about the pace - for a 7lb claimer I thought he acquited himself really well.

Two for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet - details on that will be released before 4.00pm.

2.00 Lingfield Dvinsky 3pts win @ Betfair SP (or take 8/1 generally guaranteed)

There is nothing we don't know about Dvinsky, he seems to have lost none of his enthusiasm as a 12yo and in a dire contest like this, the courage that has seen him win 19 races in a 223 race career can stand him in good stead. Artful Lady looks a relatively solid favourite, but she is no better than Dvinsky in my view and while she is 13/8, the less fashonable Paul Howling trained sprinter is 8/1. The rest look hard to win with, My Scat Daddy has been punted a couple of times and failed to deliver (I don't think he has the pace for six furlongs) and the rest will struggle to pick up races as we come into spring. The selection is drawn in stall 3, well positioned to get the lead, and I think he might just get his own way in front if Jimmy Quinn - who is riding really well this winter - is aggressive on him. The race will probably be won or lost at the start. I'm going to advise at Betfair SP, with a short priced favourite involved and two of them taking a chunk out of the market, less fashionable horses sometimes go off a point or two bigger than they should.

3.45 Lingfield Canadian Run 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - N/R

A hot contest for three year olds. Canadian Run is selected based on the promise of his penultimate run at Kempton, where he defeated a decent field of two year olds. He travelled really well (in fact was a bit keen) into that contest, and his action when he quickened in the final furlong was that of a horse who really enjoyed the polytrack surface. He ran second a week later behind the improving Jodies Jem, but I think he might need a break between his races and 51 days between then and now looks ideal. Despite his keenness, I marked him down as a horse who would most likely improve for a step up in trip, given his pedigree and the fact that he retains a Derby entry. Visual evidence suggests it took him a while to hit top gear too, and today's 10 furlongs should be perfect for him at this stage of his career. I think that, of his rivals today, he has the most improvement in him off a mark of OR80, and it is good to see David Probert - another jockey having a very good winter - getting a decent ride like this.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -9.00 / year: +46.31