One selection for this evening. Tomorrow's cards are excellent and it will be a busy weekend for us.
Wild Desert is hardly a win machine, but he does go well on the all weather and was a relative latecomer to the sphere - he had only two runs on artificial surfaces before October 2011, when he was rising seven. He has become quite consistent on the surface and2012 form behind Al Khawaneej and Rosewood Lad looks quite strong in the context of this race. His reappearance behind Stand Guard in January was a fair run, and his effort last time can be ignored - he probably went off too hard under his inexperienced pilot. It really interests me that George Baker takes over tonight. This is a drop in class and the last time Wild Desert won, it was under 10-0 top weight having had a relatively easy time on the front end. One has to think he might get the lead tonight, and he is back off his last winning mark of OR75. Baker was seen to really good effect from the front at Christmas giving Woolfall Treasure a blinder from the front, and although there are reservations about stable form (and indeed the switch to John Gallagher in the first place), he looks worth chancing at anything around 7/1+.
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Afternoon Bet:
One for this afternoon, a possible evening bet will follow before 5.00pm.
4.00 Kempton Baile Anrai 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Many of Ian William's string have been out of form, indeed he has not had a National Hunt winner this winter so far. The weather explains a lot of that, the stable have been badly affected by conditions and weren't able to work their jumpers as much as they would have liked. However, he had a chaser run eye catchingly well at Ludlow the other day, and with Baile Anrai (pronounced Ball-ya On-ree) having a recent run behind him, he may be approaching peak fitness and this looks a winnable opportunity. The selection ran quite well last time over course and distance, in a race the front two have franked since. It was a higher grade of contest than today's race, and despite never getting to grips with the first two he stuck on ok for a distant fourth. I would expect him to come on a bundle for that run, which was only his second of the season. The handicap mark of OR129 is very favourable, and if Harry Skelton rides him a little more aggressively than last time, and if he has indeed come on for that run, then I feel he can go close to winning - his run behind Invictus, Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti this time last year (fell when travelling well) suggests he might be a bit better than this lot on his day.
Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: +27.00 / year: +82.31
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