Two races of interest for Monday.
3.15 Wolverhampton
Lord Of The Dance 2.5pts win @ 16/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)
Abhaath 2.5pts win @ 18/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)
An interesting contest, in particular because it looks like a pace burn up may be on the cards - Bussa and Nant Saeson duelled for the lead last time they met, add in Arabian Flight who sits handy and Outlaw Torn, a confirmed front runner, and you have a strongly run race on the cards. As a result, I've taken two against the field who might capitalise if they go off too fast.
Lord Of The Dance was impressive in beating Bussa off 6lb lower on his penultimate run, and was unsuited by a small field last time out. He also broke awkwardly and was forced wide that day - just about nothing went right and today's bigger field will suit much better. He has already won twice this winter, loves the track and is overpriced. Abhaath has been in and out since joining Ron Harris, but I think Harris' horses are in better form now than they have been all winter and there is scope for improvement off a mark of OR63. In addition, his course and distance win from last August suggests holding him up off a strong pace is the way to ride him - he hasn't had many chances in big fields and if he breaks on terms today, Luke Morris might be able to nurse him into contention and challenge close home.
Looks to have the beating of the favourite Thereabouts on a line through Berlusca based on today's weights, and drops back down to a class 6 after failing to figure in a better contest last time out. I don't think the standard to slow polytrack suited hold up horses last time, and the selection wasn't helped by bad luck in running on at least two occasions. As an eleven year old, he is becoming hard to predict, but he probably remains the star of Brian Baugh's stable and is of interest off his lowest handicap mark for some time. 10/1 is very fair and represents good each-way value with 1/4 odds paid and an interesting formline with the favourite.
Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -8.80 / year: +46.51
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