It is not a day for the faint hearted, little appeals in the 2/1 - 10/1 bracket and as such, the laws of probability dictate that a bit of place money this afternoon might be our best bet to nick a small profit - saying that, there are opportunities to be had, and we only have to be correct once and we've had a very good day for ourselves indeed.
3.35 Newbury - The Betfair Hurdle
Cause Of Causes 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed - use a bookmaker paying 5 places - Bet 365, Paddy Power, many independents)
Lyvius 1pt win @ Betfair AND 1pt place @ Betfair SP
Into Wain 1pt win @ Betfair SP AND 1pt place @ Betfair SP (use a fixed odds bookie paying 5 places if no Betfair access)
A really interesting renewal, and a proper handicap to light up a Saturday afternoon along with the fantastic Leopardstown card featuring the Irish Hennessy. Without going into exhaustive detail, I think there's a good chance of a shock here because I can pick holes in a lot of the form of the shorter priced horses, and have reasons to doubt most of the others. I'd rather side here with horses proven in big field handicaps, and a horse in Lyvius who seems to enjoy the prevailing conditions and has won at the course impressively.
Cause Of Causes has been doing it all season, there is no doubt he is very progressive and in the form of his life. He fits the bill very well as a horse who goes on any ground and seems to relish a big field and strong pace. He is just too big for me at 16/1 and I make him an 11/1 shot in my book. We're getting 4/1 on the place here with 5 places paid if you shop around, meaning our outlay on the race is as good as covered if he gets in the frame.
Lyvius represents the powerful Henderson team, and it is interesting Andrew Tinkler (who has been riding quite well) is getting down to his minimum of 10-0 to ride him. The selection bombed out at Ascot, but he was visually impressive at this track when defeating Edgardo Sol handily, and returned to a track which seems to suit, on ground which will suit, he seems overpriced to me given the fact that he is unexposed. He was sent off just 14/1 for the Lanzarote, I've said in the past I'm always happy to forgive one bad run and 40/1 is too big.
Whoever is laying Into Wain at 120 on Betfair is high, in my view. This is another horse who is unexposed over hurdles, and travels really well through his races. In fields with ten runners or more, he has only been out of the first two once in five hurdles starts fitting the criteria. Two wins and a short head second to Petit Robin (33/1 with bookmakers here) means he has a progressive profile. A poor run at ascot is forgiven, his trainer is adament he didn't get home and I think this track will suit better. I would like to think I handicap Ascot better than most, some horses love it, some hate it, the ground is of a certain type and, at Newbury, Into Wain certainly rates a bet. An excellent young 3lb claimer is a shrewd booking.
3.45 Lingfield Elna Bright 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
With stablemates Even Stevens and Thunderball in stall one and two, and Fratellino also in the line up, I would think there will be plenty of pace on here for a medium sized field. Elna Bright has been off for 65 days, but he has won from similar breaks on two occasions in the past and I'm prepare to overlook my 30 day reappearance criteria for sprinters here. The selection has some good speed figures at this track, and although this is a step up in class, Peter Crate has his small string in fine form and if the selection is ready to go, he can certainly trouble these late on from stall 4. Jimmy Quinn rides and he has been having an excellent winter.
4.50 Leopardstown Leavethelighton 2pts win AND 1pts place @ Betfair SP
It isn't usual for us to back one in an Irish bumper, but Leavethelighton caught my eye behind the monstrous Golantilla at Cork on his first bumper win. He looks an athletic sort, and I had it in mind that he might appreciate better ground in time (which I think he'll just about get this afternoon). He ran quite well - it is impossible to know if fitness was an issue but he shouldn't lack for it today - but what caught my eye at the time was that he hugged the inside rail in the straight, which visual evidence suggested put him at quite a disadvantage. He boxed on well but those outside him made their challenges wider and seemed to be favoured by doing so. It is interesting that connections send him to Leopardstown for this decent looking bumper, and with two short ones taking a chunk out of the market we might just get an inflated SP on the machine.
Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +14.00 / year: +69.31
No comments:
Post a Comment