4.50 Southwell Victorian Bounty 2pts each-way @ 28/1 (Sporting Bet, 25/1 VC Bet, Ladbrokes, Bet 365, independents)
It is often these days to tell if a price drift on the exchanges in the early morning is the result of inside knowledge that a horse won't be fit and / or trying, or simply a case of bots pushing out prices where other horses have been backed. I am inclined to think that the exchange price on Victorian Bounty (matched at 50.0 for £26) was a case of the latter, it has now reverted to around 30.0 which is still very big. Connections are making an 850km round trip to Southwell for this race, and I think it is quite unlikely they are going to that trouble for an afternoon gallop or to get the horses handicap mark down. The selection has won once and finished third in two runs at the track, the latter coming last October in a much better contest than this which has worked out well. He has since dropped 5lb in the handicap to a rating of OR65, 4lb lower than the mark he defied on heavy ground at Windsor on his next run after that Southwell third. He also possesses the best speed figure in this line up at the course, and is well drawn in stall five. Tony Newcombe's stable had their first winner of the all weather season last week, with Spellmaker winning for today's jockey, William Carson. The caveat here is that Victorian Bounty steps up to seven furlongs for just the second time in his career - he pulled too hard on the first occasion and finished last, on Polytrack. Fibresand is a different ballgame, though - horses are much better able to stretch out in trip because the nature of the surface dictates that early speed rules. It is much harder to come from behind on this surface, it's depth meaning it is difficult to quicken late on, fibresand being kicked in horse and jockey's face does not help the cause of finishers either. On this slower surface that he seems to enjoy, off the right mark and up in trip, it is hoped the selection can break well and take a prominent early sit. Carson generally strikes me as a clever jockey, but if instructions are to hold the selection up for a late run to conserve stamina, I don't think we'll have much chance. If he is ridden forward, he has the previous class to boss this lot and hopefully hold on down the stretch when the hard work has been done. Quotes of 22/1+ are far too big.
Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +10.00 / year: +65.31
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