7.30 Kempton The Absent Mare 3pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
The Absent Mare is in the form of her life at present, having posted a career best rating last time out over this course and distance, and she is selected at a decent looking price to defeat some higher rated horses here. The selection had a long break between March and November last, and was having only her fourth run back when third behind Llamadas three weeks ago. That performance can be marked up slightly because she found trouble on the home turn, travelling well but having to wait for a gap to appear, and she might just have won with a clear run given the momentum it seemed to cost her and the eventual beatn distance of 1/4 length. This is a better race, but if anything I think the likely better pace set by classier horses will serve her well - she travels fairly easily through her races. Favourite Rysbrack has to prove he is well handicapped off OR75 having won a weak looking Jumpers' Bumper last time out, and I felt both Murcar (tired) and Thecornishcockney (seemed to lose his action slightly close home) were opposable based on their last runs. A couple of the outsiders seem to be well held on recent form, and I'm not sure there is quite enough pace here to get Pheonix Flight involved (I'm not sure he is a good ride for a claimer either). The Absent MAre has been put up 2lb for that last run, but she has become quite consistent of late and, given that she appears to be improving as a five year old and is a course and distance winner, she is selected as a confident each-way choice.
Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: -17.00 / year: +38.31
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