Thursday 31st January 2013

Jat Punjabi fell today, he didn't look a natural chaser which is the chance you take with one first time over fences. The price justified the bet as ever, and he travelled as well as anything - he is one to be interested in back over hurdles under the right circumstances.

One interesting race this evening.

7.20 Wolverhampton

Life Of Laughter 3pts win @ 15/2 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed)

Jezza 2pts win @ 16/1 (Generally, guaranteed)

The favourite looks plenty short enough at a best price of 5/4 here based on what he has achieved, and although he is the most likely winner I feel he has to be taken on here. Much of the opposition are dead wood, but two appeal at decent prices. Life Of Laughter is unexposed at this trip and despite concerns about him staying, he was doing all his best work at the finish on his last two starts and deserves a chance at this trip off a basement mark. His trainer does well with stayers at this track, and a couple of similar sorts have gone very close to winning for him in the past week, suggesting his horses are in good nick. The selection can be excused his last run, the race time suggests they crawled early and as a bumper winner he was never going to get involved over twelve furlongs having been held up detached. It looks time for a staying trips and he appeals at the current odds.

Jezza was a decent horse a couple of years back, but lost the plot completely. He is interesting now having shown a glimmer of hope against better horses on his penultimate start. The stable had a horse go close to winning last week having shown little before, under a good claimer, and it is another good 7lb claimer Ryan Tate who takes the ride on Jezza this evening. He may have resented cheekpieces last time out, and front running in a five runner field is never likely to be his thing. I expect a more patient ride this evening, and this looks like a real class drop with so many bad horses involved. 16/1 is too big.

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Afternoon Bet:

One for this afternoon, a possible evening bet at Wolverhampton will follow, details released before 4.30pm.

1.20 Towcester Jat Punjabi 4pts win @ 11/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Jat Punjabi is a nine year old, who had no form prior to his debut for Jo Hughed in December where he ran a really nice race and hurdled noticeably fluently against a good horse of Alan King's, Two Rockers. He was the only one to give Two Rockers a bit of a race, and although ultimately well beaten, fitness might have been an issue after a 21 month absence on heavy ground. There is no guarantee he will come on for the run, but it is interesting connections go straight to a Beginner's Chase and clearly they must feel his future is over the bigger obstacles. He is a fine stamp of a chaser, and being out of Karinga Bay he is almost certain to handle the heavy ground and stay well (Karinga Bay's actual versus expected value on heavy ground is better than any other sire). The McCain favourite has struggled with his jumping so far, and Badgers Cove didn't really impress earlier this month. He might just get outdone for class, but the selection certainly appeals as underestimated at the prices - double figures are too big.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: +55.31 / year: +55.31